{
  "_notice": {
    "type": "free_key_offer",
    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
  },
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-9WNQTZHLM5",
  "slug": "will-anthropic-or-openai-ipo-first",
  "question": "Will Anthropic or OpenAI IPO first?",
  "category": "technology",
  "event_type": "BINARY",
  "ladder_distribution": null,
  "tags": [
    "technology",
    "openai",
    "anthropic",
    "ipo",
    "ai-companies",
    "finance"
  ],
  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "This market tracks which of Anthropic or OpenAI completes an initial public offering first, resolving by December 31, 2027. Only one Polymarket contract exists, pricing a binary outcome rather than valuation, timing, or offering structure. Resolution follows Polymarket's UMA Optimistic Oracle, referencing official company announcements and credible news sources. Neither firm has confirmed a public listing timeline as of the resolution window.",
  "venues_covered": [
    "polymarket"
  ],
  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-7TB0QWPLK7",
  "current_primary_mark": {
    "last_price": 0.965,
    "implied_probability": 0.965,
    "as_of": "2026-09-06T06:00:48.475Z"
  },
  "created_at": "2026-08-04T20:03:51.865287+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-08-04T20:03:51.865287+00:00",
  "markets": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-7TB0QWPLK7",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-9WNQTZHLM5",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0xc289a877bc155123069739b21d690b3e8dc220b98f6ae3924468bbcbdfaf98dc",
      "question": "Will Anthropic or OpenAI IPO first?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to \"Anthropic\" if Anthropic completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) before OpenAI completes an IPO by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, as confirmed by official company announcements and credible news sources. \n\nThis market will resolve to \"OpenAI\" if OpenAI completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) before Anthropic completes an IPO by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, as confirmed by official company announcements and credible news sources. \n\nThis market will resolve 50-50 if:\n- Neither company completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "Official company announcements and credible news sources confirming which of Anthropic or OpenAI completes an IPO first by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.",
      "close_at": "2027-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to \"Anthropic\" if Anthropic completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) before OpenAI completes an IPO by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, as confirmed by official company announcements and credible news sources. \n\nThis market will resolve to \"OpenAI\" if OpenAI completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) before Anthropic completes an IPO by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, as confirmed by official company announcements and credible news sources. \n\nThis market will resolve 50-50 if:\n- Neither company completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET;\n- Both companies complete an IPO on the same calendar date (ET); or\n- By December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, both companies become unable to complete an IPO, including due to acquisition, merger, or absorption by an entity that is already publicly traded.\n\nThe IPO refers to the first sale of stock by the listed company to the public on any recognized stock exchange.\n\nThe resolution source for this market is a consensus of credible reporting.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": null,
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "official company announcements",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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          {
            "name": "credible news sources",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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          {
            "name": "consensus of credible reporting",
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            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
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        "source_hedge_text": null
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      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 50,
        "caps": [
          "multi_source_no_conflict_rule",
          "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 7
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      "last_price": 0.965,
      "implied_probability": 0.965,
      "price_as_of": "2026-09-06T06:00:48.475Z",
      "volume_24h_usd": 540.896017,
      "volume_total_usd": 337230.55442500004,
      "settlement_style": "occurrence",
      "direction": "occurrence",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": "CMX-FA112B283D",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "anthropic",
        "anthropic vs openai",
        "corporate-event",
        "ipo",
        "openai"
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      "eligibility_screens": null
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  "resolution_log": [],
  "_provenance": {
    "source": "clearmarket.fyi",
    "ref": "CM-EVT-9WNQTZHLM5",
    "terms": "Attribution required. clearmarket.fyi"
  }
}