{
  "_notice": {
    "type": "free_key_offer",
    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
  },
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-MWPXCGZVK3",
  "slug": "will-any-ai-model-reach-coding-arena-score-by-december-31",
  "question": "Will any AI model reach ___ Coding Arena Score by December 31?",
  "category": "technology",
  "event_type": "BINARY",
  "ladder_distribution": null,
  "tags": [
    "technology",
    "ai-benchmarking",
    "coding-performance",
    "model-capability",
    "tech",
    "ai"
  ],
  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "These markets track whether any AI model will reach discrete Coding Arena score thresholds on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard by December 31, 2026. The three Polymarket contracts price binary outcomes at strike thresholds of 1560, 1580, and 1600, forming an implicit probability ladder across score levels. Each contract resolves via Polymarket's UMA Optimistic Oracle referencing the Chatbot Arena \"Text Arena | Coding\" Score column as the authoritative source. The 1560 contract prices the floor probability; the 1600 contract prices the tail outcome.",
  "venues_covered": [
    "polymarket"
  ],
  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-CB6JY7SVR2",
  "current_primary_mark": {
    "last_price": 0.48,
    "implied_probability": 0.48
  },
  "created_at": "2026-07-23T21:11:14.426158+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-07-23T21:11:14.426158+00:00",
  "markets": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-4Y5RQ4VW33",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-MWPXCGZVK3",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x4cad4fbbb7b4378dba4f0023c5cc5aa4bb54fff92c03b35622e6a1a7d5900be4",
      "question": "Will any AI model reach 1580 Coding Arena Score by December 31, 2026?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if any model on the Arena.AI Leaderboard (arena.ai/leaderboard/text) reaches at least the specified Arena Score on the \"Leaderboard\" tab for \"Coding\" by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nResults from the \"Score\" column under the \"Text Arena | Coding\" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/coding-no-style-control with style control off will be used to resolve this market.\n\nThe resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at arena.ai/leaderboard/text. If this resolution sou",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "1580: The Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard \"Text Arena | Coding\" Score column will determine if any model reaches the specified threshold by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.",
      "close_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if any model on the Arena.AI Leaderboard (arena.ai/leaderboard/text) reaches at least the specified Arena Score on the \"Leaderboard\" tab for \"Coding\" by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nResults from the \"Score\" column under the \"Text Arena | Coding\" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/coding-no-style-control with style control off will be used to resolve this market.\n\nThe resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at arena.ai/leaderboard/text. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to \"No\".",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/coding-no-style-control",
        "sources": [
          {
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            "url": "https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/coding-no-style-control",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
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          {
            "name": "Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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          {
            "name": "arena.ai/leaderboard/text",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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        "source_of_record": "Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 87,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.37,
      "implied_probability": 0.37,
      "volume_24h_usd": 10.26,
      "volume_total_usd": 49249.101975000034,
      "settlement_style": "terminal",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 1580,
      "question_id": "CMX-D400BCA31A",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "ai",
        "ai model coding",
        "benchmark",
        "coding"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-V26HHPVQV9",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-MWPXCGZVK3",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0xa5d68aa8f5d453f355130e0330508fac0cdbbf97dd0b929464d002df036ac5de",
      "question": "Will any AI model reach 1600 Coding Arena Score by December 31, 2026?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if any model on the Arena.AI Leaderboard (arena.ai/leaderboard/text) reaches at least the specified Arena Score on the \"Leaderboard\" tab for \"Coding\" by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nResults from the \"Score\" column under the \"Text Arena | Coding\" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/coding-no-style-control with style control off will be used to resolve this market.\n\nThe resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at arena.ai/leaderboard/text. If this resolution sou",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "1600: The Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard \"Text Arena | Coding\" Score column will determine if any model reaches the specified threshold by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.",
      "close_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if any model on the Arena.AI Leaderboard (arena.ai/leaderboard/text) reaches at least the specified Arena Score on the \"Leaderboard\" tab for \"Coding\" by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nResults from the \"Score\" column under the \"Text Arena | Coding\" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/coding-no-style-control with style control off will be used to resolve this market.\n\nThe resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at arena.ai/leaderboard/text. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to \"No\".",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/coding-no-style-control",
        "sources": [
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            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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          {
            "name": "arena.ai/leaderboard/text",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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        ],
        "source_of_record": "Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "named",
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      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 87,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.152,
      "implied_probability": 0.152,
      "volume_24h_usd": 1808.117958,
      "volume_total_usd": 28478.942537000006,
      "settlement_style": "terminal",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 1600,
      "question_id": "CMX-6C950D8376",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "ai",
        "ai model coding",
        "benchmark",
        "coding"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-CB6JY7SVR2",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-MWPXCGZVK3",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0xb6b45a6527a60bea323a311a9d4179c532c903e589f81751cfcd86b912b71eda",
      "question": "Will any AI model reach 1560 Coding Arena Score by December 31, 2026?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if any model on the Arena.AI Leaderboard (arena.ai/leaderboard/text) reaches at least the specified Arena Score on the \"Leaderboard\" tab for \"Coding\" by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nResults from the \"Score\" column under the \"Text Arena | Coding\" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/coding-no-style-control with style control off will be used to resolve this market.\n\nThe resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at arena.ai/leaderboard/text. If this resolution sou",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "1560: The Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard \"Text Arena | Coding\" Score column will determine if any model reaches the specified threshold by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.",
      "close_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if any model on the Arena.AI Leaderboard (arena.ai/leaderboard/text) reaches at least the specified Arena Score on the \"Leaderboard\" tab for \"Coding\" by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nResults from the \"Score\" column under the \"Text Arena | Coding\" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/coding-no-style-control with style control off will be used to resolve this market.\n\nThe resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at arena.ai/leaderboard/text. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to \"No\".",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/coding-no-style-control",
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      "rcg": {
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        "score": 87,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
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      "implied_probability": 0.48,
      "volume_24h_usd": 1110.051687,
      "volume_total_usd": 80570.45831400009,
      "settlement_style": "terminal",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 1560,
      "question_id": "CMX-6327A07C8F",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
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  "resolution_log": [],
  "_provenance": {
    "source": "clearmarket.fyi",
    "ref": "CM-EVT-MWPXCGZVK3",
    "terms": "Attribution required. clearmarket.fyi"
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}