{
  "_notice": {
    "type": "free_key_offer",
    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
  },
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-0MTRR13JP1",
  "slug": "will-any-ai-model-reach-math-arena-score-by-december-31",
  "question": "Will any AI model reach a target Math Arena Score in 2026? (multi-deadline series)",
  "category": "technology",
  "event_type": "BINARY",
  "ladder_distribution": null,
  "tags": [
    "technology",
    "ai",
    "tech",
    "ai-benchmarks",
    "machine-learning",
    "2026"
  ],
  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "These markets track whether any AI model achieves discrete Math Arena score thresholds by December 31, 2026. The four Polymarket contracts form a strike ladder at 1525, 1550, 1575, and 1600, each priced as a binary outcome at a fixed level. Higher strikes imply lower probability, creating an implicit term structure across score levels. Resolution uses Polymarket's UMA Optimistic Oracle referencing the LMSYS Chatbot Arena \"Text Arena | Math\" leaderboard score column.",
  "venues_covered": [
    "polymarket"
  ],
  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-YQ4P89ZD38",
  "current_primary_mark": {
    "last_price": 0.874,
    "implied_probability": 0.874
  },
  "created_at": "2026-07-23T21:11:14.426158+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-07-23T21:11:14.426158+00:00",
  "markets": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-7RSCQQJMQ6",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-0MTRR13JP1",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x8b20a1909e9d77949705d9b196f6abad258b5240185aa646052bc1c2b876e735",
      "question": "Will any AI model reach 1525 Math Arena Score by December 31, 2026?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if any model on the Arena.AI Leaderboard (arena.ai/leaderboard/text) reaches at least the specified Arena Score on the \"Leaderboard\" tab for \"Math\" by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nResults from the \"Score\" column under the \"Text Arena | Math\" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control with style control off will be used to resolve this market.\n\nThe resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at arena.ai/leaderboard/text. If this resolution source is",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "1525: The Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard \"Text Arena | Math\" Score column will determine if any model reaches the specified threshold by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.",
      "close_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-05-21T02:26:28Z",
      "status": "closed",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if any model on the Arena.AI Leaderboard (arena.ai/leaderboard/text) reaches at least the specified Arena Score on the \"Leaderboard\" tab for \"Math\" by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nResults from the \"Score\" column under the \"Text Arena | Math\" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control with style control off will be used to resolve this market.\n\nThe resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at arena.ai/leaderboard/text. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to \"No\".",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control",
        "sources": [
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            "name": "arena.ai",
            "url": "https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
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          {
            "name": "Arena.AI Leaderboard",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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          {
            "name": "Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "arena.ai/leaderboard/text",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
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        "source_of_record": "Arena.AI Leaderboard",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 87,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
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      "last_price": 0.997,
      "implied_probability": 0.997,
      "volume_24h_usd": null,
      "volume_total_usd": 3317.6429900000003,
      "settlement_style": "terminal",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 1525,
      "question_id": "CMX-3F91563672",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "ai",
        "ai model math",
        "benchmark",
        "math"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-YQ4P89ZD38",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-0MTRR13JP1",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x59ee6ea91056116e8ed99a6d11d60872c3a4f89892551f1db12e2752380c9874",
      "question": "Will any AI model reach 1550 Math Arena Score by December 31, 2026?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if any model on the Arena.AI Leaderboard (arena.ai/leaderboard/text) reaches at least the specified Arena Score on the \"Leaderboard\" tab for \"Math\" by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nResults from the \"Score\" column under the \"Text Arena | Math\" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control with style control off will be used to resolve this market.\n\nThe resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at arena.ai/leaderboard/text. If this resolution source is",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "1550: The Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard \"Text Arena | Math\" Score column will determine if any model reaches the specified threshold by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.",
      "close_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if any model on the Arena.AI Leaderboard (arena.ai/leaderboard/text) reaches at least the specified Arena Score on the \"Leaderboard\" tab for \"Math\" by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nResults from the \"Score\" column under the \"Text Arena | Math\" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control with style control off will be used to resolve this market.\n\nThe resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at arena.ai/leaderboard/text. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to \"No\".",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control",
        "sources": [
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            "url": "https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
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          {
            "name": "Arena.AI Leaderboard",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "arena.ai/leaderboard/text",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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        "source_of_record": "Arena.AI Leaderboard",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
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      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 87,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
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      "last_price": 0.874,
      "implied_probability": 0.874,
      "volume_24h_usd": 2565.6094829999997,
      "volume_total_usd": 59530.93622399995,
      "settlement_style": "terminal",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 1550,
      "question_id": "CMX-4F6B1B4284",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "ai",
        "ai model math",
        "benchmark",
        "math"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-061VGHFDY6",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-0MTRR13JP1",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x356dd951d62105a067f97bd17a13b3034ae4df3ca8868b9f6ee9a33a9d98ce2e",
      "question": "Will any AI model reach 1575 Math Arena Score by December 31, 2026?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if any model on the Arena.AI Leaderboard (arena.ai/leaderboard/text) reaches at least the specified Arena Score on the \"Leaderboard\" tab for \"Math\" by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nResults from the \"Score\" column under the \"Text Arena | Math\" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control with style control off will be used to resolve this market.\n\nThe resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at arena.ai/leaderboard/text. If this resolution source is",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "1575: The Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard \"Text Arena | Math\" Score column will determine if any model reaches the specified threshold by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.",
      "close_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if any model on the Arena.AI Leaderboard (arena.ai/leaderboard/text) reaches at least the specified Arena Score on the \"Leaderboard\" tab for \"Math\" by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nResults from the \"Score\" column under the \"Text Arena | Math\" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control with style control off will be used to resolve this market.\n\nThe resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at arena.ai/leaderboard/text. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to \"No\".",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "arena.ai",
            "url": "https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
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          {
            "name": "Arena.AI Leaderboard",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "arena.ai/leaderboard/text",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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        ],
        "source_of_record": "Arena.AI Leaderboard",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "named",
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        "source_hedge_text": null
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      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 87,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
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      "last_price": 0.77,
      "implied_probability": 0.77,
      "volume_24h_usd": 3208.289633,
      "volume_total_usd": 27559.221046999995,
      "settlement_style": "terminal",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 1575,
      "question_id": "CMX-4DA2A2152E",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "ai",
        "ai model math",
        "benchmark",
        "math"
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      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-22SKSG84L3",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-0MTRR13JP1",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x4636a5f0ca6503ed0613aea84803fc3ba51aa29d294b8772714f006936d40d5f",
      "question": "Will any AI model reach 1600 Math Arena Score by December 31, 2026?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if any model on the Arena.AI Leaderboard (arena.ai/leaderboard/text) reaches at least the specified Arena Score on the \"Leaderboard\" tab for \"Math\" by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nResults from the \"Score\" column under the \"Text Arena | Math\" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control with style control off will be used to resolve this market.\n\nThe resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at arena.ai/leaderboard/text. If this resolution source is",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "1600: The Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard \"Text Arena | Math\" Score column will determine if any model reaches the specified threshold by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.",
      "close_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if any model on the Arena.AI Leaderboard (arena.ai/leaderboard/text) reaches at least the specified Arena Score on the \"Leaderboard\" tab for \"Math\" by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nResults from the \"Score\" column under the \"Text Arena | Math\" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control with style control off will be used to resolve this market.\n\nThe resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at arena.ai/leaderboard/text. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to \"No\".",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control",
        "sources": [
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        "caps": [],
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      "volume_24h_usd": 37.008402000000004,
      "volume_total_usd": 8023.596919999998,
      "settlement_style": "terminal",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 1600,
      "question_id": "CMX-874E52E2E2",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "ai",
        "ai model math",
        "benchmark",
        "math"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    }
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  "resolution_log": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-7RSCQQJMQ6",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "event_type": "status_change",
      "outcome": "closed",
      "resolved_at": "2026-05-21T02:26:28Z",
      "deadline_at": null,
      "occurred_basis": "venue_settlement",
      "final_price": null,
      "recorded_at": "2026-07-23",
      "source": "platform_api",
      "source_ref": null
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    "source": "clearmarket.fyi",
    "ref": "CM-EVT-0MTRR13JP1",
    "terms": "Attribution required. clearmarket.fyi"
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}