{
  "_notice": {
    "type": "free_key_offer",
    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
  },
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-0MTRR13JP1",
  "slug": "will-any-ai-model-reach-math-arena-score-by-december-31",
  "question": "Will any AI model reach ___ Math Arena Score in 2026? (multi-deadline series)",
  "category": "technology",
  "event_type": "BINARY",
  "ladder_distribution": null,
  "tags": [
    "technology",
    "ai",
    "tech",
    "ai-benchmarks",
    "machine-learning",
    "2026"
  ],
  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "These markets track whether any AI model achieves discrete Math Arena Score thresholds by December 31, 2026. The four contracts are structured as a strike ladder: 1525, 1550, 1575, and 1600. Higher-strike contracts are logically subordinate to lower ones, creating an implied probability cascade. All four resolve via Polymarket's UMA Optimistic Oracle.",
  "venues_covered": [
    "polymarket"
  ],
  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-YQ4P89ZD38",
  "current_primary_mark": {
    "last_price": 0.999,
    "implied_probability": 0.999,
    "as_of": null
  },
  "created_at": "2026-08-04T20:03:51.865287+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-08-04T20:03:51.865287+00:00",
  "markets": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-7RSCQQJMQ6",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-0MTRR13JP1",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x8b20a1909e9d77949705d9b196f6abad258b5240185aa646052bc1c2b876e735",
      "question": "Will any AI model reach 1525 Math Arena Score by December 31, 2026?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if any model on the Arena.AI Leaderboard (arena.ai/leaderboard/text) reaches at least the specified Arena Score on the \"Leaderboard\" tab for \"Math\" by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nResults from the \"Score\" column under the \"Text Arena | Math\" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control with style control off will be used to resolve this market.\n\nThe resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at arena.ai/leaderboard/text. If this resolution source is",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "1525: Resolution per the event's stated source and mechanism (subject supplied per market).",
      "close_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-05-21T02:26:28Z",
      "status": "closed",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if any model on the Arena.AI Leaderboard (arena.ai/leaderboard/text) reaches at least the specified Arena Score on the \"Leaderboard\" tab for \"Math\" by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nResults from the \"Score\" column under the \"Text Arena | Math\" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control with style control off will be used to resolve this market.\n\nThe resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at arena.ai/leaderboard/text. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to \"No\".",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "arena.ai",
            "url": "https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Arena.AI Leaderboard",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "arena.ai/leaderboard/text",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "Arena.AI Leaderboard",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 87,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.997,
      "implied_probability": 0.997,
      "price_as_of": null,
      "volume_24h_usd": null,
      "volume_total_usd": 3317.6429900000003,
      "settlement_style": "terminal",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 1525,
      "question_id": "CMX-3F91563672",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "ai",
        "ai model math",
        "benchmark",
        "math"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-YQ4P89ZD38",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-0MTRR13JP1",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x59ee6ea91056116e8ed99a6d11d60872c3a4f89892551f1db12e2752380c9874",
      "question": "Will any AI model reach 1550 Math Arena Score by December 31, 2026?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if any model on the Arena.AI Leaderboard (arena.ai/leaderboard/text) reaches at least the specified Arena Score on the \"Leaderboard\" tab for \"Math\" by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nResults from the \"Score\" column under the \"Text Arena | Math\" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control with style control off will be used to resolve this market.\n\nThe resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at arena.ai/leaderboard/text. If this resolution source is",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "1550: Resolution per the event's stated source and mechanism (subject supplied per market).",
      "close_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-08-01T15:14:12Z",
      "status": "closed",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if any model on the Arena.AI Leaderboard (arena.ai/leaderboard/text) reaches at least the specified Arena Score on the \"Leaderboard\" tab for \"Math\" by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nResults from the \"Score\" column under the \"Text Arena | Math\" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control with style control off will be used to resolve this market.\n\nThe resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at arena.ai/leaderboard/text. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to \"No\".",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "arena.ai",
            "url": "https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Arena.AI Leaderboard",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "arena.ai/leaderboard/text",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "Arena.AI Leaderboard",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 87,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.999,
      "implied_probability": 0.999,
      "price_as_of": null,
      "volume_24h_usd": null,
      "volume_total_usd": 65287.205582,
      "settlement_style": "terminal",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 1550,
      "question_id": "CMX-4F6B1B4284",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "ai",
        "ai model math",
        "benchmark",
        "math"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-061VGHFDY6",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-0MTRR13JP1",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x356dd951d62105a067f97bd17a13b3034ae4df3ca8868b9f6ee9a33a9d98ce2e",
      "question": "Will any AI model reach 1575 Math Arena Score by December 31, 2026?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if any model on the Arena.AI Leaderboard (arena.ai/leaderboard/text) reaches at least the specified Arena Score on the \"Leaderboard\" tab for \"Math\" by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nResults from the \"Score\" column under the \"Text Arena | Math\" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control with style control off will be used to resolve this market.\n\nThe resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at arena.ai/leaderboard/text. If this resolution source is",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "1575: Resolution per the event's stated source and mechanism (subject supplied per market).",
      "close_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if any model on the Arena.AI Leaderboard (arena.ai/leaderboard/text) reaches at least the specified Arena Score on the \"Leaderboard\" tab for \"Math\" by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nResults from the \"Score\" column under the \"Text Arena | Math\" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control with style control off will be used to resolve this market.\n\nThe resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at arena.ai/leaderboard/text. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to \"No\".",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "arena.ai",
            "url": "https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Arena.AI Leaderboard",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "arena.ai/leaderboard/text",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "Arena.AI Leaderboard",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 87,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.7,
      "implied_probability": 0.7,
      "price_as_of": "2026-09-11T19:01:18.199Z",
      "volume_24h_usd": 615.35,
      "volume_total_usd": 39445.15206999999,
      "settlement_style": "terminal",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 1575,
      "question_id": "CMX-4DA2A2152E",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "ai",
        "ai model math",
        "benchmark",
        "math"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-22SKSG84L3",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-0MTRR13JP1",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x4636a5f0ca6503ed0613aea84803fc3ba51aa29d294b8772714f006936d40d5f",
      "question": "Will any AI model reach 1600 Math Arena Score by December 31, 2026?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if any model on the Arena.AI Leaderboard (arena.ai/leaderboard/text) reaches at least the specified Arena Score on the \"Leaderboard\" tab for \"Math\" by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nResults from the \"Score\" column under the \"Text Arena | Math\" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control with style control off will be used to resolve this market.\n\nThe resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at arena.ai/leaderboard/text. If this resolution source is",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "1600: Resolution per the event's stated source and mechanism (subject supplied per market).",
      "close_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if any model on the Arena.AI Leaderboard (arena.ai/leaderboard/text) reaches at least the specified Arena Score on the \"Leaderboard\" tab for \"Math\" by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nResults from the \"Score\" column under the \"Text Arena | Math\" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control with style control off will be used to resolve this market.\n\nThe resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at arena.ai/leaderboard/text. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to \"No\".",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "arena.ai",
            "url": "https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Arena.AI Leaderboard",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "arena.ai/leaderboard/text",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "Arena.AI Leaderboard",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 87,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.292,
      "implied_probability": 0.292,
      "price_as_of": "2026-09-11T11:01:16.293Z",
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 12453.756871000001,
      "settlement_style": "terminal",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 1600,
      "question_id": "CMX-874E52E2E2",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "ai",
        "ai model math",
        "benchmark",
        "math"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    }
  ],
  "resolution_log": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-YQ4P89ZD38",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "event_type": "status_change",
      "outcome": "closed",
      "resolved_at": null,
      "deadline_at": "2026-08-01T15:14:12Z",
      "occurred_basis": "deadline",
      "final_price": null,
      "recorded_at": "2026-08-04",
      "source": "platform_api",
      "source_ref": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-7RSCQQJMQ6",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "event_type": "status_change",
      "outcome": "closed",
      "resolved_at": "2026-05-21T02:26:28Z",
      "deadline_at": null,
      "occurred_basis": "venue_settlement",
      "final_price": null,
      "recorded_at": "2026-07-23",
      "source": "platform_api",
      "source_ref": null
    }
  ],
  "_provenance": {
    "source": "clearmarket.fyi",
    "ref": "CM-EVT-0MTRR13JP1",
    "terms": "Attribution required. clearmarket.fyi"
  }
}