{
  "_notice": {
    "type": "free_key_offer",
    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
  },
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-R7FHP0RM90",
  "slug": "will-any-ai-model-reach-overall-arena-score-by-june-30",
  "question": "Will any AI model reach ___ Overall Arena Score by June 30?",
  "category": "technology",
  "event_type": "BINARY",
  "ladder_distribution": null,
  "tags": [
    "technology",
    "ai-benchmarking",
    "tech",
    "model-performance",
    "2026",
    "arena-score"
  ],
  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "These markets track whether any AI model achieves a specified Overall Arena Score on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard by June 30, 2026. The three Polymarket contracts form a strike ladder at 1510, 1520, and 1530, pricing progressively harder thresholds. Higher strikes imply lower probability, creating an implicit term structure of AI capability expectations. All three resolve via Polymarket's UMA Optimistic Oracle against the leaderboard's Text Arena Overall tab.",
  "venues_covered": [
    "polymarket"
  ],
  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-J7GVLGFVK1",
  "current_primary_mark": {
    "last_price": 0,
    "implied_probability": 0
  },
  "created_at": "2026-07-06T00:30:45.836226+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-07-06T00:30:45.836226+00:00",
  "markets": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-J7GVLGFVK1",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-R7FHP0RM90",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x126633028f9a939c9ff28c9d05baf3ac5c6016fb9fb4f10d78e846fb30005799",
      "question": "Will any AI model reach 1510 Overall Arena Score by June 30, 2026?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if any model on the Arena.AI Leaderboard (arena.ai/leaderboard/text) reaches at least the specified Arena Score by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nResults from the \"Score\" column under the \"Text Arena | Overall\" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.\n\nThe resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at arena.ai/leaderboard/text. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open ",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "1510: Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard's \"Score\" column under \"Text Arena | Overall\" tab resolves whether any model reaches the specified threshold by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.",
      "close_at": "2026-06-30T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-06-30T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "resolved",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if any model on the Arena.AI Leaderboard (arena.ai/leaderboard/text) reaches at least the specified Arena Score by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nResults from the \"Score\" column under the \"Text Arena | Overall\" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.\n\nThe resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at arena.ai/leaderboard/text. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to \"No\".",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text",
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            "url": "https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text",
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            "name": "Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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          {
            "name": "arena.ai/leaderboard/text",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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        "source_of_record": "Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
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      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 87,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
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      "last_price": 0,
      "implied_probability": 0,
      "volume_24h_usd": 342.29,
      "volume_total_usd": 11370.037322,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 1510,
      "question_id": "CMX-F763D559F1",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "ai",
        "ai model overall",
        "arena",
        "benchmark"
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      "eligibility_screens": null
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    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-RCXB74XBR4",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-R7FHP0RM90",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x29ffc00ed56b26d511b9f5008bf8836b212dd3d9133757366691bbd2d8972780",
      "question": "Will any AI model reach 1520 Overall Arena Score by June 30, 2026?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if any model on the Arena.AI Leaderboard (arena.ai/leaderboard/text) reaches at least the specified Arena Score by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nResults from the \"Score\" column under the \"Text Arena | Overall\" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.\n\nThe resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at arena.ai/leaderboard/text. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open ",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "1520: Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard's \"Score\" column under \"Text Arena | Overall\" tab resolves whether any model reaches the specified threshold by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.",
      "close_at": "2026-06-30T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-06-30T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "resolved",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if any model on the Arena.AI Leaderboard (arena.ai/leaderboard/text) reaches at least the specified Arena Score by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nResults from the \"Score\" column under the \"Text Arena | Overall\" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.\n\nThe resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at arena.ai/leaderboard/text. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to \"No\".",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text",
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            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
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        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "named",
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      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 87,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
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      "last_price": 0,
      "implied_probability": 0,
      "volume_24h_usd": 166.74,
      "volume_total_usd": 10918.232253,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 1520,
      "question_id": "CMX-78198D4983",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "ai",
        "ai model overall",
        "arena",
        "benchmark"
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      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-YMVWH5WMC8",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-R7FHP0RM90",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x69f6b8f2fd88d10c16d41c73baf074cd170f836edb39ab6b36c5db9ade8731ad",
      "question": "Will any AI model reach 1530 Overall Arena Score by June 30, 2026?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if any model on the Arena.AI Leaderboard (arena.ai/leaderboard/text) reaches at least the specified Arena Score by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nResults from the \"Score\" column under the \"Text Arena | Overall\" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.\n\nThe resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at arena.ai/leaderboard/text. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open ",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "1530: Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard's \"Score\" column under \"Text Arena | Overall\" tab resolves whether any model reaches the specified threshold by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.",
      "close_at": "2026-06-30T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-06-30T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "resolved",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if any model on the Arena.AI Leaderboard (arena.ai/leaderboard/text) reaches at least the specified Arena Score by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nResults from the \"Score\" column under the \"Text Arena | Overall\" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.\n\nThe resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at arena.ai/leaderboard/text. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to \"No\".",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text",
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            "name": "arena.ai/leaderboard/text",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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        "source_of_record": "Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
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        "source_commitment": "named",
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      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 87,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
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      "last_price": 0,
      "implied_probability": 0,
      "volume_24h_usd": 150,
      "volume_total_usd": 9831.045236,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 1530,
      "question_id": "CMX-7D86B183F1",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "ai",
        "ai model overall",
        "arena",
        "benchmark"
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      "eligibility_screens": null
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  "resolution_log": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-J7GVLGFVK1",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "event_type": "resolved",
      "outcome": "NO",
      "resolved_at": "2026-07-01T06:02:10Z",
      "deadline_at": null,
      "occurred_basis": "venue_settlement",
      "final_price": 0,
      "recorded_at": "2026-07-06",
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    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-YMVWH5WMC8",
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      "event_type": "resolved",
      "outcome": "NO",
      "resolved_at": "2026-07-01T06:01:56Z",
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      "occurred_basis": "venue_settlement",
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      "recorded_at": "2026-07-06",
      "source": "platform_api",
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    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-RCXB74XBR4",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "event_type": "resolved",
      "outcome": "NO",
      "resolved_at": "2026-07-01T06:01:55Z",
      "deadline_at": null,
      "occurred_basis": "venue_settlement",
      "final_price": 0,
      "recorded_at": "2026-07-06",
      "source": "platform_api",
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  "_provenance": {
    "source": "clearmarket.fyi",
    "ref": "CM-EVT-R7FHP0RM90",
    "terms": "Attribution required. clearmarket.fyi"
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}