{
  "_notice": {
    "type": "free_key_offer",
    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
  },
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-61DHJLFR26",
  "slug": "will-any-ai-model-reach-overall-arena-score-by-september-30",
  "question": "Any AI model Overall Arena Score by September 30, 2026",
  "category": "technology",
  "event_type": "LADDER",
  "ladder_distribution": {
    "direction": "above",
    "implied_band": [
      null,
      1510
    ],
    "strikes": [
      {
        "threshold": 1510,
        "prob": 38
      },
      {
        "threshold": 1520,
        "prob": 13
      },
      {
        "threshold": 1530,
        "prob": 8
      },
      {
        "threshold": 1540,
        "prob": 8
      },
      {
        "threshold": 1550,
        "prob": 7
      }
    ]
  },
  "tags": [
    "technology",
    "ai",
    "tech",
    "ai-benchmarks",
    "performance-threshold",
    "2026"
  ],
  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "These markets track whether any AI model will reach discrete Overall Arena Score thresholds on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard by September 30, 2026. The five Polymarket contracts span strike levels from 1510 to 1550, functioning as a ladder of binary threshold bets on benchmark score progression. Each contract resolves via Polymarket's UMA Optimistic Oracle against the Score column published at lmarena.ai. Together they price the probability distribution of peak leaderboard performance across a defined score range.",
  "venues_covered": [
    "polymarket"
  ],
  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-FR5LQY2T85",
  "current_primary_mark": {
    "last_price": 0.999,
    "implied_probability": 0.999
  },
  "created_at": "2026-07-23T21:11:14.426158+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-07-23T21:11:14.426158+00:00",
  "markets": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-FR5LQY2T85",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-61DHJLFR26",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x2ef481c2bb5b69beb5ff2160b4c3a31ca17eb31c2d08abbbbef82d854814248b",
      "question": "Will any AI model reach 1510 Overall Arena Score by September 30, 2026?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if any model on the Arena.AI Leaderboard (arena.ai/leaderboard/text) reaches at least the specified Arena Score by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nResults from the \"Score\" column under the \"Text Arena | Overall\" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.\n\nThe resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at arena.ai/leaderboard/text. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain ",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "1510: Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard's \"Score\" column under \"Text Arena | Overall\" tab at lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text determines if any model reaches the specified threshold by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.",
      "close_at": "2026-09-30T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-09-30T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if any model on the Arena.AI Leaderboard (arena.ai/leaderboard/text) reaches at least the specified Arena Score by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nResults from the \"Score\" column under the \"Text Arena | Overall\" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.\n\nThe resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at arena.ai/leaderboard/text. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to \"No\".",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "lmarena.ai",
            "url": "https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Arena.AI Leaderboard",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "arena.ai/leaderboard/text",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 87,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.999,
      "implied_probability": 0.999,
      "volume_24h_usd": 10258.655512,
      "volume_total_usd": 80743.17169700006,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 1510,
      "question_id": "CMX-5B490E0DDF",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "ai",
        "ai model overall",
        "arena",
        "benchmark"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-N20MV8FPW6",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-61DHJLFR26",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x6a98ff5d9296b7130ba3c6d5978e0777b98f0550341706bef86f7eb390def16b",
      "question": "Will any AI model reach 1520 Overall Arena Score by September 30, 2026?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if any model on the Arena.AI Leaderboard (arena.ai/leaderboard/text) reaches at least the specified Arena Score by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nResults from the \"Score\" column under the \"Text Arena | Overall\" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.\n\nThe resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at arena.ai/leaderboard/text. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain ",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "1520: Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard's \"Score\" column under \"Text Arena | Overall\" tab at lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text determines if any model reaches the specified threshold by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.",
      "close_at": "2026-09-30T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-09-30T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if any model on the Arena.AI Leaderboard (arena.ai/leaderboard/text) reaches at least the specified Arena Score by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nResults from the \"Score\" column under the \"Text Arena | Overall\" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.\n\nThe resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at arena.ai/leaderboard/text. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to \"No\".",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "lmarena.ai",
            "url": "https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Arena.AI Leaderboard",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "arena.ai/leaderboard/text",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 87,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.33,
      "implied_probability": 0.33,
      "volume_24h_usd": 2920.2534079999996,
      "volume_total_usd": 25970.163877999996,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 1520,
      "question_id": "CMX-22A3F949B5",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "ai",
        "ai model overall",
        "arena",
        "benchmark"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-L2GXP9JCD1",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-61DHJLFR26",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x0ab703c5bc04b87984cc9355d28a2de699d396b71a86a29991fa42bf9c96e798",
      "question": "Will any AI model reach 1530 Overall Arena Score by September 30, 2026?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if any model on the Arena.AI Leaderboard (arena.ai/leaderboard/text) reaches at least the specified Arena Score by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nResults from the \"Score\" column under the \"Text Arena | Overall\" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.\n\nThe resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at arena.ai/leaderboard/text. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain ",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "1530: Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard's \"Score\" column under \"Text Arena | Overall\" tab at lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text determines if any model reaches the specified threshold by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.",
      "close_at": "2026-09-30T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-09-30T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if any model on the Arena.AI Leaderboard (arena.ai/leaderboard/text) reaches at least the specified Arena Score by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nResults from the \"Score\" column under the \"Text Arena | Overall\" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.\n\nThe resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at arena.ai/leaderboard/text. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to \"No\".",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "lmarena.ai",
            "url": "https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Arena.AI Leaderboard",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "arena.ai/leaderboard/text",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 87,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.11,
      "implied_probability": 0.11,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 13385.583244000001,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 1530,
      "question_id": "CMX-934058FEBF",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "ai",
        "ai model overall",
        "arena",
        "benchmark"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-SC30V35GS0",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-61DHJLFR26",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0xf9b391ee8fdb99e6497872c8c48b9c710972c0400180abc68d80f2e6110d5024",
      "question": "Will any AI model reach 1540 Overall Arena Score by September 30, 2026?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if any model on the Arena.AI Leaderboard (arena.ai/leaderboard/text) reaches at least the specified Arena Score by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nResults from the \"Score\" column under the \"Text Arena | Overall\" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.\n\nThe resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at arena.ai/leaderboard/text. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain ",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "1540: Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard's \"Score\" column under \"Text Arena | Overall\" tab at lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text determines if any model reaches the specified threshold by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.",
      "close_at": "2026-09-30T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-09-30T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if any model on the Arena.AI Leaderboard (arena.ai/leaderboard/text) reaches at least the specified Arena Score by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nResults from the \"Score\" column under the \"Text Arena | Overall\" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.\n\nThe resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at arena.ai/leaderboard/text. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to \"No\".",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "lmarena.ai",
            "url": "https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Arena.AI Leaderboard",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "arena.ai/leaderboard/text",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 87,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.08,
      "implied_probability": 0.08,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 8302.805746000002,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 1540,
      "question_id": "CMX-85360D131F",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "ai",
        "ai model overall",
        "arena",
        "benchmark"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-28PTP7D0C7",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-61DHJLFR26",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x49b5da64dea470e2840929ba0a747acbb6d9652af3998062ae06920dbb6a4d26",
      "question": "Will any AI model reach 1550 Overall Arena Score by September 30, 2026?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if any model on the Arena.AI Leaderboard (arena.ai/leaderboard/text) reaches at least the specified Arena Score by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nResults from the \"Score\" column under the \"Text Arena | Overall\" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.\n\nThe resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at arena.ai/leaderboard/text. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain ",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "1550: Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard's \"Score\" column under \"Text Arena | Overall\" tab at lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text determines if any model reaches the specified threshold by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.",
      "close_at": "2026-09-30T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-09-30T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if any model on the Arena.AI Leaderboard (arena.ai/leaderboard/text) reaches at least the specified Arena Score by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nResults from the \"Score\" column under the \"Text Arena | Overall\" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.\n\nThe resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at arena.ai/leaderboard/text. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to \"No\".",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "lmarena.ai",
            "url": "https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Arena.AI Leaderboard",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "arena.ai/leaderboard/text",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 87,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.05,
      "implied_probability": 0.05,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 11404.345210999996,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 1550,
      "question_id": "CMX-3D82EFC107",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "ai",
        "ai model overall",
        "arena",
        "benchmark"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    }
  ],
  "resolution_log": [],
  "_provenance": {
    "source": "clearmarket.fyi",
    "ref": "CM-EVT-61DHJLFR26",
    "terms": "Attribution required. clearmarket.fyi"
  }
}