{
  "_notice": {
    "type": "free_key_offer",
    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
  },
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-9FYQ8PG4C1",
  "slug": "will-any-country-expel-an-israeli-ambassador-by-december-31",
  "question": "Will any country expel an Israeli ambassador by December 31?",
  "category": "geopolitics",
  "event_type": "BINARY",
  "ladder_distribution": null,
  "tags": [
    "geopolitics",
    "israel-diplomacy",
    "diplomatic-expulsion",
    "international-relations",
    "2026"
  ],
  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "This market tracks whether any sovereign government will formally expel an Israeli ambassador before December 31, 2026. A single qualifying expulsion by any country resolves the contract YES. Resolution follows Polymarket's UMA Optimistic Oracle against official government announcements. Disputes over informal recalls versus formal expulsions may create resolution ambiguity.",
  "venues_covered": [
    "polymarket"
  ],
  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-3RJ07XP008",
  "current_primary_mark": {
    "last_price": 0.24,
    "implied_probability": 0.24
  },
  "created_at": "2026-07-23T21:11:14.426158+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-07-23T21:11:14.426158+00:00",
  "markets": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-3RJ07XP008",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-9FYQ8PG4C1",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x7a4f85f9ebace96909f940927d4cb7d829a18636b7b7bed782ca7dbdf5e391d0",
      "question": "Will any country expel an Israeli ambassador by December 31?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if any Israeli ambassador is expelled from their assigned country by the government of that country between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59: PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nAny expulsion from a country where an Israeli ambassador is assigned as of the time of this market’s creation will qualify.\n\nFor the purposes of resolving this market, an official announcement that a Israeli ambassador will be or is being expelled will suffice regardless of whether or not the respective ambassador leaves the country within this market’s tim",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "Official announcements by any country's government that an Israeli ambassador has been or will be expelled by December 31, 2026.",
      "close_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if any Israeli ambassador is expelled from their assigned country by the government of that country between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59: PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nAny expulsion from a country where an Israeli ambassador is assigned as of the time of this market’s creation will qualify.\n\nFor the purposes of resolving this market, an official announcement that a Israeli ambassador will be or is being expelled will suffice regardless of whether or not the respective ambassador leaves the country within this market’s timeframe.\n\nQualifying announcements must be definitive, unambiguous, official statements issued by an authorized governmental person or entity.\n\nWhether the ambassador resigns, is recalled, or otherwise departs voluntarily will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Israel, including the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, as well as official information from the relevant expelling government; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": null,
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "official information from the government of Israel, including the Ministry of Foreign Affairs",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "official information from the relevant expelling government",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": null,
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_placeholder",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 52,
        "caps": [
          "multi_source_no_conflict_rule",
          "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 7
      },
      "last_price": 0.24,
      "implied_probability": 0.24,
      "volume_24h_usd": 6.57,
      "volume_total_usd": 38635.82599200002,
      "settlement_style": "occurrence",
      "direction": "occurrence",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "diplomacy",
        "international relations",
        "israel",
        "israeli ambassador expulsion"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    }
  ],
  "resolution_log": [],
  "_provenance": {
    "source": "clearmarket.fyi",
    "ref": "CM-EVT-9FYQ8PG4C1",
    "terms": "Attribution required. clearmarket.fyi"
  }
}