{
  "_notice": {
    "type": "free_key_offer",
    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
  },
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-G0HQ1F72M3",
  "slug": "will-any-country-leave-nato-in-2025",
  "question": "Will any country leave NATO by 2026?",
  "category": "geopolitics",
  "event_type": "BINARY",
  "ladder_distribution": null,
  "tags": [
    "geopolitics",
    "nato",
    "international-relations",
    "2025",
    "country-exit",
    "political-alliance"
  ],
  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "These markets track whether any NATO member state formally withdraws from the alliance across three sequential deadlines. The 2025 market resolved at its January 1, 2026 timestamp; the June 2026 and December 2026 markets remain open. All three resolve via Polymarket's UMA Optimistic Oracle against publicly verifiable withdrawal events. The staggered structure prices increasing time horizon, letting traders express views on near-term versus full-year alliance stability.",
  "venues_covered": [
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  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-XQN5R5R0B6",
  "current_primary_mark": {
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    "implied_probability": 0
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  "created_at": "2026-07-06T00:30:45.836226+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-07-06T00:30:45.836226+00:00",
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      "event_id": "CM-EVT-G0HQ1F72M3",
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      "question": "Will any country leave NATO in 2025?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if any member state formally withdraws from NATO or provides an official notice of denunciation to NATO by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nA notice of denunciation refers to the submission of a notice of withdrawal as per Article 13 of the North Atlantic Treaty.\n\nA country's exit from NATO’s integrated military command structure will not be sufficient to resolve this market to \"Yes\". That country must either withdraw or submit a notice of denunciation to trigger a \"Yes\" resolution.\n\nThe resolution source will be of",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "December 31, 2025: Resolution per the event's stated source and mechanism (subject supplied per market).",
      "close_at": "2025-12-31T12:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-01-01T08:14:37Z",
      "status": "closed",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if any member state formally withdraws from NATO or provides an official notice of denunciation to NATO by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nA notice of denunciation refers to the submission of a notice of withdrawal as per Article 13 of the North Atlantic Treaty.\n\nA country's exit from NATO’s integrated military command structure will not be sufficient to resolve this market to \"Yes\". That country must either withdraw or submit a notice of denunciation to trigger a \"Yes\" resolution.\n\nThe resolution source will be official information from the relevant government and NATO, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
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        "sources": [
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            "name": "official information from the relevant government and NATO",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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        "grade": "C",
        "score": 54,
        "caps": [
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        "applied_factors": 7
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      "last_price": 1,
      "implied_probability": 1,
      "volume_24h_usd": null,
      "volume_total_usd": 277041.272422,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "occurrence",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
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        "nato",
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    {
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      "event_id": "CM-EVT-G0HQ1F72M3",
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      "platform_market_id": "0x663ab202c03a5e1d399578d44a3b124307db73caba79b2ead36c52ce6094b2d4",
      "question": "Will any country leave NATO by June 30, 2026?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if any member state formally withdraws from NATO or provides an official notice of denunciation to NATO by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nA notice of denunciation refers to the submission of a notice of withdrawal as per Article 13 of the North Atlantic Treaty.\n\nA country's exit from NATO’s integrated military command structure will not be sufficient to resolve this market to \"Yes\". That country must either withdraw or submit a notice of denunciation to trigger a \"Yes\" resolution.\n\nThe resolution source will be offici",
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      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
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      "close_at": "2026-06-30T12:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-06-30T12:00:00Z",
      "status": "resolved",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if any member state formally withdraws from NATO or provides an official notice of denunciation to NATO by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nA notice of denunciation refers to the submission of a notice of withdrawal as per Article 13 of the North Atlantic Treaty.\n\nA country's exit from NATO’s integrated military command structure will not be sufficient to resolve this market to \"Yes\". That country must either withdraw or submit a notice of denunciation to trigger a \"Yes\" resolution.\n\nThe resolution source will be official information from the relevant government and NATO, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
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        "sources": [
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            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 54,
        "caps": [
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        "applied_factors": 7
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      "last_price": 0,
      "implied_probability": 0,
      "volume_24h_usd": 239.45846799999998,
      "volume_total_usd": 706110.1437980006,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "occurrence",
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      "tags": [
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    {
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      "event_id": "CM-EVT-G0HQ1F72M3",
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      "platform_market_id": "0x523959b6256674318eb34755789fffd8c62cd652e5fa11ffd332402361d058e9",
      "question": "Will any country leave NATO by December 31, 2026?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if any member state formally withdraws from NATO or provides an official notice of denunciation to NATO by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nA notice of denunciation refers to the submission of a notice of withdrawal as per Article 13 of the North Atlantic Treaty.\n\nA country's exit from NATO’s integrated military command structure will not be sufficient to resolve this market to \"Yes\". That country must either withdraw or submit a notice of denunciation to trigger a \"Yes\" resolution.\n\nThe resolution source will be of",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "December 31, 2026: Resolution per the event's stated source and mechanism (subject supplied per market).",
      "close_at": "2026-12-31T12:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-12-31T12:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if any member state formally withdraws from NATO or provides an official notice of denunciation to NATO by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nA notice of denunciation refers to the submission of a notice of withdrawal as per Article 13 of the North Atlantic Treaty.\n\nA country's exit from NATO’s integrated military command structure will not be sufficient to resolve this market to \"Yes\". That country must either withdraw or submit a notice of denunciation to trigger a \"Yes\" resolution.\n\nThe resolution source will be official information from the relevant government and NATO, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
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            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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        "grade": "C",
        "score": 54,
        "caps": [
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        "applied_factors": 7
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      "question_id": null,
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      "tags": [
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        "nato",
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      "eligibility_screens": null
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  "resolution_log": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-XQN5R5R0B6",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "outcome": "NO",
      "resolved_at": "2026-06-30T12:00:00Z",
      "final_price": 0,
      "recorded_at": "2026-07-06",
      "source": "platform_api",
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      "market_id": "CM-MKT-31CM5MMVX1",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "outcome": "closed",
      "resolved_at": "2026-01-01T08:14:37Z",
      "final_price": null,
      "recorded_at": "2026-07-06",
      "source": "platform_api",
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  "_provenance": {
    "source": "clearmarket.fyi",
    "ref": "CM-EVT-G0HQ1F72M3",
    "terms": "Attribution required. clearmarket.fyi"
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}