{
  "_notice": {
    "type": "free_key_offer",
    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
  },
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-8LNS25ZJL1",
  "slug": "will-any-presidential-candidate-win-outright-in-the-first-round-of-the-brazil-election",
  "question": "Will any presidential candidate win outright in the first round of the Brazil election?",
  "category": "politics",
  "event_type": "BINARY",
  "ladder_distribution": null,
  "tags": [
    "politics",
    "brazil-election",
    "2026",
    "first-round-voting",
    "electoral-mechanics",
    "presidency"
  ],
  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "This market tracks whether any candidate clears 50% of valid votes in Brazil's October 4, 2026 presidential election first round. A first-round victory would eliminate the need for an October runoff. Resolution follows Polymarket's UMA Optimistic Oracle, sourced from Brazil's Superior Electoral Court announcement. Only one platform structures this event, so no cross-platform contrast applies.",
  "venues_covered": [
    "polymarket"
  ],
  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-Y3CW4FHFS9",
  "current_primary_mark": {
    "last_price": 0.12,
    "implied_probability": 0.12
  },
  "created_at": "2026-07-23T21:11:14.426158+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-07-23T21:11:14.426158+00:00",
  "markets": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-Y3CW4FHFS9",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-8LNS25ZJL1",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x087469b4129c64c688397028059dfd366796adbd426e0079ee4cfdd2e4a07b61",
      "question": "Will any presidential candidate win outright in the first round of the Brazil election?",
      "description": "Presidential elections are scheduled to be held in Brazil on October 4, 2026. A second round will be held if no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round.\n\nThis market will resolve to \"Yes\" if any candidate wins this election in the first round. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nIf the result of the first round of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nThis market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will r",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "Brazil's Superior Electoral Court (TSE) announces the first-round results of the October 4, 2026 presidential election.",
      "close_at": "2026-10-04T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-10-04T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "Presidential elections are scheduled to be held in Brazil on October 4, 2026. A second round will be held if no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round.\n\nThis market will resolve to \"Yes\" if any candidate wins this election in the first round. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nIf the result of the first round of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nThis market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "dadosabertos.tse.jus.br",
            "url": "https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE)",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "dadosabertos.tse.jus.br",
        "source_mechanism": "precedence",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 84,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.12,
      "implied_probability": 0.12,
      "volume_24h_usd": 10.583332,
      "volume_total_usd": 100848.35355999944,
      "settlement_style": "occurrence",
      "direction": "occurrence",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "brazil",
        "brazil presidential election",
        "election",
        "presidential"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    }
  ],
  "resolution_log": [],
  "_provenance": {
    "source": "clearmarket.fyi",
    "ref": "CM-EVT-8LNS25ZJL1",
    "terms": "Attribution required. clearmarket.fyi"
  }
}