{
  "_notice": {
    "type": "free_key_offer",
    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
  },
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-HKZK7T8GP4",
  "slug": "will-anyone-be-jailed-over-epstein-disclosures",
  "question": "Will anyone be jailed over Epstein disclosures by the settlement date?",
  "category": "politics",
  "event_type": "BINARY",
  "ladder_distribution": null,
  "tags": [
    "politics",
    "epstein-disclosures",
    "criminal-justice",
    "high-profile-figures",
    "2026"
  ],
  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "This market tracks whether any individual will serve jail or prison time arising from Epstein-related disclosures by December 31, 2026. A single Polymarket binary resolves the outcome with no comparable rate-level or margin structure on a second platform. Resolution follows Polymarket's UMA Optimistic Oracle, keyed to confirmed incarceration, not indictment or conviction alone. No cross-platform structural contrast exists here; the binary outcome framing stands without a directional counterpart.",
  "venues_covered": [
    "polymarket"
  ],
  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-BQ4HK7DSH6",
  "current_primary_mark": {
    "last_price": 0.138,
    "implied_probability": 0.138
  },
  "created_at": "2026-07-06T00:30:45.836226+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-07-06T00:30:45.836226+00:00",
  "markets": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-BQ4HK7DSH6",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-HKZK7T8GP4",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0xaad0c8484cc9f91162f667120780d75fd822f399ee9060591a065602b1d1efbb",
      "question": "Will anyone be jailed over Epstein disclosures? ",
      "description": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, any individual serves any time in a federal, state, or local U.S. jail or prison, and the cause of that incarceration is attributed to information contained in files related to Jeffrey Epstein released by the federal government on or after December 19, 2025. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”\n\nA qualifying incarceration must be caused by information included in Epstein-related files released on or after December 19, 2025. The cause of incarceration may be established through official charging documents, court ru",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "UMA Optimistic Oracle resolves based on whether any individual serves jail or prison time by December 31, 2026, for crimes directly attributed to information in Epstein-related files released on or after December 19, 2025.",
      "close_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, any individual serves any time in a federal, state, or local U.S. jail or prison, and the cause of that incarceration is attributed to information contained in files related to Jeffrey Epstein released by the federal government on or after December 19, 2025. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”\n\nA qualifying incarceration must be caused by information included in Epstein-related files released on or after December 19, 2025. The cause of incarceration may be established through official charging documents, court rulings, sentencing statements, or through a clear consensus of credible reporting attributing the incarceration to information contained in those released files. Incarceration driven by information that was publicly known before December 19, 2025, or by reasons unrelated to the content of the released Epstein-related files, will not qualify.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be official court records or government statements, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": null,
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "official court records",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "government statements",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "a consensus of credible reporting",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": null,
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_placeholder",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 43,
        "caps": [
          "multi_source_no_conflict_rule",
          "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 7
      },
      "last_price": 0.138,
      "implied_probability": 0.138,
      "volume_24h_usd": 91.12,
      "volume_total_usd": 325977.42513699975,
      "settlement_style": "occurrence",
      "direction": "occurrence",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "criminal justice",
        "epstein",
        "epstein disclosures legal",
        "legal"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    }
  ],
  "resolution_log": [],
  "_provenance": {
    "source": "clearmarket.fyi",
    "ref": "CM-EVT-HKZK7T8GP4",
    "terms": "Attribution required. clearmarket.fyi"
  }
}