{
  "_notice": {
    "type": "free_key_offer",
    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
  },
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-9X4NH4TYF7",
  "slug": "will-apple-release-iphone-18-in-2026",
  "question": "Will Apple release iPhone 18 in 2026?",
  "category": "technology",
  "event_type": "BINARY",
  "ladder_distribution": null,
  "tags": [
    "technology",
    "apple-products",
    "iphone-releases",
    "consumer-tech",
    "2026",
    "hardware-launches"
  ],
  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "This event tracks whether Apple will commercially release an iPhone 18 or successor-designated product by December 31, 2026. A single Polymarket binary resolves via the UMA Optimistic Oracle Polymarket uses for resolution. The authoritative source is Apple's official product announcement or release. No cross-platform structural contrast applies; only one market is listed.",
  "venues_covered": [
    "polymarket"
  ],
  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-WDF0P5PVS9",
  "current_primary_mark": {
    "last_price": 0.965,
    "implied_probability": 0.965
  },
  "created_at": "2026-07-06T00:30:45.836226+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-07-06T00:30:45.836226+00:00",
  "markets": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-WDF0P5PVS9",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-9X4NH4TYF7",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x8993fe75e5079e37bd765ec45548184645d3fdc6efef9f7302a95ba8113efa8a",
      "question": "Will Apple release iPhone 18 in 2026?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Apple officially releases iPhone 18 by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nA qualifying product must be named \"iPhone\" and be recognized as a successor to the original iPhone product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 15 and iPhone 16. A new iPhone product released without a number, under a designation other than iPhone 18, will qualify if it retains the original functions of the iPhone and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.\n\nIn order to be considered released, ",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "Apple's official announcement or release of a product named iPhone 18 or a successor designation by December 31, 2026.",
      "close_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Apple officially releases iPhone 18 by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nA qualifying product must be named \"iPhone\" and be recognized as a successor to the original iPhone product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 15 and iPhone 16. A new iPhone product released without a number, under a designation other than iPhone 18, will qualify if it retains the original functions of the iPhone and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.\n\nIn order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": null,
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "official statements from Apple",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "a consensus of credible reporting",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": null,
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_placeholder",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 59,
        "caps": [
          "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.965,
      "implied_probability": 0.965,
      "volume_24h_usd": 17.98,
      "volume_total_usd": 158357.10030599977,
      "settlement_style": "occurrence",
      "direction": "occurrence",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": "CMX-47BE24677A",
      "also_on": [
        {
          "venue": "kalshi",
          "market_id": "CM-MKT-KBZCYHGK70",
          "price": 0.19
        }
      ],
      "tags": [
        "apple",
        "apple iphone 18",
        "iphone",
        "product release"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    }
  ],
  "resolution_log": [],
  "_provenance": {
    "source": "clearmarket.fyi",
    "ref": "CM-EVT-9X4NH4TYF7",
    "terms": "Attribution required. clearmarket.fyi"
  }
}