{
  "_notice": {
    "type": "free_key_offer",
    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
  },
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-L197XLZMJ6",
  "slug": "will-arc-launch-a-token-by",
  "question": "Will Arc launch a token by 2026?",
  "category": "crypto",
  "event_type": "BINARY",
  "ladder_distribution": null,
  "tags": [
    "crypto",
    "token-launch",
    "arc-protocol",
    "2027",
    "blockchain-governance",
    "cryptocurrency-project"
  ],
  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "These markets track whether Arc will launch a crypto token by a series of escalating deadlines. Each contract is a binary outcome tied to a specific cutoff: December 31, 2025 through December 31, 2027. Later-dated contracts subsume earlier ones, creating an implied probability term structure. All seven resolve via Polymarket's UMA Optimistic Oracle, with no independent authoritative source specified beyond the deadline itself.",
  "venues_covered": [
    "polymarket"
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  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-D9DZGJMJ20",
  "current_primary_mark": {
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    "implied_probability": 0
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  "created_at": "2026-07-06T00:30:45.836226+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-07-06T00:30:45.836226+00:00",
  "markets": [
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      "event_id": "CM-EVT-L197XLZMJ6",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x45df2056a972062601e537ae173e228e70beae0c90e362f756f6077e4dfd7ee4",
      "question": "Will Arc launch a token by December 31 2025?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if Arc (https://x.com/arc) officially launches a governance token by 11:59 PM ET on the date specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nThe token must be actively and publicly transferable and tradable. Announcements alone do not qualify.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be information from Arc, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "December 31, 2025: Resolution per the event's stated source and mechanism (subject supplied per market).",
      "close_at": "2027-01-01T05:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-01-01T09:23:23Z",
      "status": "closed",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if Arc (https://x.com/arc) officially launches a governance token by 11:59 PM ET on the date specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nThe token must be actively and publicly transferable and tradable. Announcements alone do not qualify.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be information from Arc, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": "https://x.com/arc",
        "sources": [
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            "url": "https://x.com/arc",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
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            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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        "score": 40,
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      "settlement_style": "touch",
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      "question_id": "CMX-9081B4B99E",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
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    {
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      "event_id": "CM-EVT-L197XLZMJ6",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x4c35eee5846b4ebbbf8d5fcb112faa82677c4caf45fbbf622b29cc08f4bc1b9b",
      "question": "Will Arc launch a token by June 30 2026?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if Arc (https://x.com/arc) officially launches a governance token by 11:59 PM ET on the date specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nThe token must be actively and publicly transferable and tradable. Announcements alone do not qualify.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be information from Arc, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.",
      "contract_type": "binary",
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      "resolve_at": "2026-06-30T05:00:00Z",
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            "provenance": "platform_api"
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            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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      "question": "Will Arc launch a token by December 31 2026?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if Arc (https://x.com/arc) officially launches a governance token by 11:59 PM ET on the date specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nThe token must be actively and publicly transferable and tradable. Announcements alone do not qualify.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be information from Arc, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "December 31, 2026: Resolution per the event's stated source and mechanism (subject supplied per market).",
      "close_at": "2027-01-01T05:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-01-01T05:00:00Z",
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      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if Arc (https://x.com/arc) officially launches a governance token by 11:59 PM ET on the date specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nThe token must be actively and publicly transferable and tradable. Announcements alone do not qualify.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be information from Arc, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.",
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        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
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        "source_citation": "https://x.com/arc",
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        "caps": [
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      "question_id": "CMX-F36B8880EB",
      "also_on": [
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          "price": 0.6
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      "tags": [
        "arc",
        "launch",
        "token"
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      "eligibility_screens": null
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    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-V0R1P7CKP7",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-L197XLZMJ6",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0xb7b2f1550f33f546305dddefb5c79c605fb51fda341df667e58d867b64b2cbbb",
      "question": "Will Arc launch a token by March 31 2026?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if Arc (https://x.com/arc) officially launches a governance token by 11:59 PM ET on the date specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nThe token must be actively and publicly transferable and tradable. Announcements alone do not qualify.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be information from Arc, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "March 31, 2026: Resolution per the event's stated source and mechanism (subject supplied per market).",
      "close_at": "2027-01-01T05:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-04-01T08:21:07Z",
      "status": "closed",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if Arc (https://x.com/arc) officially launches a governance token by 11:59 PM ET on the date specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nThe token must be actively and publicly transferable and tradable. Announcements alone do not qualify.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be information from Arc, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": "https://x.com/arc",
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      "question_id": "CMX-12671C32D7",
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    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-XTS9164LW2",
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      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0xe4fcc10c0ee2b1c0f6fd9bb8acdf8f009d38cfbf5c614a60e94696fa9da6c209",
      "question": "Will Arc launch a token by September 30 2026?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if Arc (https://x.com/arc) officially launches a governance token by 11:59 PM ET on the date specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nThe token must be actively and publicly transferable and tradable. Announcements alone do not qualify.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be information from Arc, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
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      "resolve_at": "2026-09-30T05:00:00Z",
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      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if Arc (https://x.com/arc) officially launches a governance token by 11:59 PM ET on the date specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nThe token must be actively and publicly transferable and tradable. Announcements alone do not qualify.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be information from Arc, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.",
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      "platform_market_id": "0xa0421ad099542a757d64c9a812536cc52d7a80a3270bca73c81f9a103db520a6",
      "question": "Will Arc launch a token by June 30 2027?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if Arc (https://x.com/arc) officially launches a governance token by 11:59 PM ET on the date specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nThe token must be actively and publicly transferable and tradable. Announcements alone do not qualify.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be information from Arc, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.",
      "contract_type": "binary",
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      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if Arc (https://x.com/arc) officially launches a governance token by 11:59 PM ET on the date specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nThe token must be actively and publicly transferable and tradable. Announcements alone do not qualify.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be information from Arc, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.",
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      "tags": [
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    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-5KCM822105",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-L197XLZMJ6",
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      "platform_market_id": "0xed7d2179f14f3ac58b41de0bf01d4c9683c900cb46d766bc82809c28b65b9ea8",
      "question": "Will Arc launch a token by December 31 2027?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if Arc (https://x.com/arc) officially launches a governance token by 11:59 PM ET on the date specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nThe token must be actively and publicly transferable and tradable. Announcements alone do not qualify.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be information from Arc, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "December 31, 2027: Resolution per the event's stated source and mechanism (subject supplied per market).",
      "close_at": "2028-01-01T05:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2028-01-01T05:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if Arc (https://x.com/arc) officially launches a governance token by 11:59 PM ET on the date specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nThe token must be actively and publicly transferable and tradable. Announcements alone do not qualify.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be information from Arc, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
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      "question_id": "CMX-2860793D36",
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      "tags": [
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    }
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  "resolution_log": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-D9DZGJMJ20",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "outcome": "NO",
      "resolved_at": "2026-06-30T05:00:00Z",
      "final_price": 0,
      "recorded_at": "2026-07-06",
      "source": "platform_api",
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      "outcome": "closed",
      "resolved_at": "2026-04-01T08:21:07Z",
      "final_price": null,
      "recorded_at": "2026-07-06",
      "source": "platform_api",
      "source_ref": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-FP1LFXL158",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "outcome": "closed",
      "resolved_at": "2026-01-01T09:23:23Z",
      "final_price": null,
      "recorded_at": "2026-07-06",
      "source": "platform_api",
      "source_ref": null
    }
  ],
  "_provenance": {
    "source": "clearmarket.fyi",
    "ref": "CM-EVT-L197XLZMJ6",
    "terms": "Attribution required. clearmarket.fyi"
  }
}