{
  "_notice": {
    "type": "free_key_offer",
    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
  },
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-848VJQSQ11",
  "slug": "will-arcium-launch-a-token-by",
  "question": "Will Arcium launch a token by 2026?",
  "category": "crypto",
  "event_type": "BINARY",
  "ladder_distribution": null,
  "tags": [
    "crypto",
    "token-launch",
    "arcium",
    "blockchain",
    "2026"
  ],
  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "These markets track whether Arcium, a confidential computing blockchain project, launches a native token by each specified deadline. Seven binary contracts on Polymarket span quarterly horizons from June 2026 through December 2027, forming an implied launch probability term structure. Each resolves via Polymarket's UMA Optimistic Oracle. Token launch confirmation depends on on-chain evidence and community-sourced dispute resolution, introducing subjectivity risk at each settlement date.",
  "venues_covered": [
    "polymarket"
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  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-Z2SPK97MX7",
  "current_primary_mark": {
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    "implied_probability": 1
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  "created_at": "2026-07-06T00:30:45.836226+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-07-06T00:30:45.836226+00:00",
  "markets": [
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      "event_id": "CM-EVT-848VJQSQ11",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x8c579046749f8d2d509865dbd9cd653317d84389eb8836221083ba1448595952",
      "question": "Will Arcium launch a token by June 30, 2026?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Arcium officially launches a token by 11:59 PM ET on the date specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nOnly an official token launched by Arcium will qualify. Stablecoins, memecoins, LSTs and synthetic tokens will not count.\n\nThe token must be actively and publicly tradable. Announcements alone do not qualify.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be information from Arcium (https://x.com/Arcium), however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "June 30, 2026: Resolution per the event's stated source and mechanism (subject supplied per market).",
      "close_at": "2026-07-01T03:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-07-01T03:59:00Z",
      "status": "resolved",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Arcium officially launches a token by 11:59 PM ET on the date specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nOnly an official token launched by Arcium will qualify. Stablecoins, memecoins, LSTs and synthetic tokens will not count.\n\nThe token must be actively and publicly tradable. Announcements alone do not qualify.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be information from Arcium (https://x.com/Arcium), however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": "https://x.com/Arcium",
        "sources": [
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            "url": "https://x.com/Arcium",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
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        "caps": [
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        "applied_factors": 6
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      "implied_probability": 1,
      "volume_24h_usd": 372.776561,
      "volume_total_usd": 10640.894693000117,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "occurrence",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": "CMX-B10D07E301",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
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        "token"
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      "event_id": "CM-EVT-848VJQSQ11",
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      "platform_market_id": "0xc3f61a6b69908b874daa93e2100250e3e89559d232c1ca47a5f5350746f4df33",
      "question": "Will Arcium launch a token by September 30, 2026?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Arcium officially launches a token by 11:59 PM ET on the date specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nOnly an official token launched by Arcium will qualify. Stablecoins, memecoins, LSTs and synthetic tokens will not count.\n\nThe token must be actively and publicly tradable. Announcements alone do not qualify.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be information from Arcium (https://x.com/Arcium), however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "September 30, 2026: Resolution per the event's stated source and mechanism (subject supplied per market).",
      "close_at": "2026-10-01T03:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-10-01T03:59:00Z",
      "status": "closed",
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        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Arcium officially launches a token by 11:59 PM ET on the date specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nOnly an official token launched by Arcium will qualify. Stablecoins, memecoins, LSTs and synthetic tokens will not count.\n\nThe token must be actively and publicly tradable. Announcements alone do not qualify.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be information from Arcium (https://x.com/Arcium), however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
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      "also_on": null,
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      "platform_market_id": "0x6e20882e82bb3d04518928cf2d969fa8e55f0a867e7e37a7d048bac4d00c1d2e",
      "question": "Will Arcium launch a token by June 30, 2027?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Arcium officially launches a token by 11:59 PM ET on the date specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nOnly an official token launched by Arcium will qualify. Stablecoins, memecoins, LSTs and synthetic tokens will not count.\n\nThe token must be actively and publicly tradable. Announcements alone do not qualify.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be information from Arcium (https://x.com/Arcium), however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "June 30, 2027: Resolution per the event's stated source and mechanism (subject supplied per market).",
      "close_at": "2027-07-01T03:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-07-01T03:59:00Z",
      "status": "closed",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Arcium officially launches a token by 11:59 PM ET on the date specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nOnly an official token launched by Arcium will qualify. Stablecoins, memecoins, LSTs and synthetic tokens will not count.\n\nThe token must be actively and publicly tradable. Announcements alone do not qualify.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be information from Arcium (https://x.com/Arcium), however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": "https://x.com/Arcium",
        "sources": [
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            "provenance": "platform_api"
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        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
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      "rcg": {
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        "caps": [
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        "applied_factors": 6
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      "implied_probability": null,
      "volume_24h_usd": null,
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      "settlement_style": "touch",
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      "question_id": "CMX-E71034CBF4",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
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      "eligibility_screens": null
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      "market_id": "CM-MKT-NH74HL8LR8",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-848VJQSQ11",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x167b740c7a0348b56b62d26b9199e216b6b137d19bb95d51d48017b27c0251df",
      "question": "Will Arcium launch a token by December 31, 2027?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Arcium officially launches a token by 11:59 PM ET on the date specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nOnly an official token launched by Arcium will qualify. Stablecoins, memecoins, LSTs and synthetic tokens will not count.\n\nThe token must be actively and publicly tradable. Announcements alone do not qualify.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be information from Arcium (https://x.com/Arcium), however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "December 31, 2027: Resolution per the event's stated source and mechanism (subject supplied per market).",
      "close_at": "2028-01-01T04:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2028-01-01T04:59:00Z",
      "status": "resolved",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Arcium officially launches a token by 11:59 PM ET on the date specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nOnly an official token launched by Arcium will qualify. Stablecoins, memecoins, LSTs and synthetic tokens will not count.\n\nThe token must be actively and publicly tradable. Announcements alone do not qualify.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be information from Arcium (https://x.com/Arcium), however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": "https://x.com/Arcium",
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            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
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      "rcg": {
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        "caps": [
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        "applied_factors": 6
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      "last_price": 1,
      "implied_probability": 1,
      "volume_24h_usd": null,
      "volume_total_usd": 10338.53,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "occurrence",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": "CMX-B687A62E8D",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "arcium",
        "launch",
        "token"
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      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-FKBGT6KB24",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-848VJQSQ11",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x50360dba56644fab3e104fbcc513e4d8c58491e7f45a3153b78b47ac7e6354c5",
      "question": "Will Arcium launch a token by December 31, 2026?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Arcium officially launches a token by 11:59 PM ET on the date specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nOnly an official token launched by Arcium will qualify. Stablecoins, memecoins, LSTs and synthetic tokens will not count.\n\nThe token must be actively and publicly tradable. Announcements alone do not qualify.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be information from Arcium (https://x.com/Arcium), however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "December 31, 2026: Resolution per the event's stated source and mechanism (subject supplied per market).",
      "close_at": "2027-01-01T04:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-01-01T04:59:00Z",
      "status": "resolved",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Arcium officially launches a token by 11:59 PM ET on the date specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nOnly an official token launched by Arcium will qualify. Stablecoins, memecoins, LSTs and synthetic tokens will not count.\n\nThe token must be actively and publicly tradable. Announcements alone do not qualify.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be information from Arcium (https://x.com/Arcium), however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
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        "applied_factors": 6
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      "volume_24h_usd": 20.07,
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      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "occurrence",
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      "question_id": "CMX-A59A778E74",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
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    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-0S4NZBQSK1",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-848VJQSQ11",
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      "platform_market_id": "0xe741047655fa35083a13d82a4b926f7120cb8790f4320d1a09d8813e6a50886b",
      "question": "Will Arcium launch a token by March 31, 2027?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Arcium officially launches a token by 11:59 PM ET on the date specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nOnly an official token launched by Arcium will qualify. Stablecoins, memecoins, LSTs and synthetic tokens will not count.\n\nThe token must be actively and publicly tradable. Announcements alone do not qualify.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be information from Arcium (https://x.com/Arcium), however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "March 31, 2027: Resolution per the event's stated source and mechanism (subject supplied per market).",
      "close_at": "2027-04-01T03:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-04-01T03:59:00Z",
      "status": "closed",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Arcium officially launches a token by 11:59 PM ET on the date specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nOnly an official token launched by Arcium will qualify. Stablecoins, memecoins, LSTs and synthetic tokens will not count.\n\nThe token must be actively and publicly tradable. Announcements alone do not qualify.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be information from Arcium (https://x.com/Arcium), however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
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        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": "https://x.com/Arcium",
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            "url": null,
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        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
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      "rcg": {
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        "applied_factors": 6
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      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "occurrence",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": "CMX-959DAF79E8",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "arcium",
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        "token"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-ZQS28GTRY7",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-848VJQSQ11",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x89ce5907577089f0e410323052f114304af188acd790fc5576221cdc26d952c0",
      "question": "Will Arcium launch a token by September 30, 2027?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Arcium officially launches a token by 11:59 PM ET on the date specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nOnly an official token launched by Arcium will qualify. Stablecoins, memecoins, LSTs and synthetic tokens will not count.\n\nThe token must be actively and publicly tradable. Announcements alone do not qualify.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be information from Arcium (https://x.com/Arcium), however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "September 30, 2027: Resolution per the event's stated source and mechanism (subject supplied per market).",
      "close_at": "2027-10-01T03:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-10-01T03:59:00Z",
      "status": "resolved",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Arcium officially launches a token by 11:59 PM ET on the date specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nOnly an official token launched by Arcium will qualify. Stablecoins, memecoins, LSTs and synthetic tokens will not count.\n\nThe token must be actively and publicly tradable. Announcements alone do not qualify.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be information from Arcium (https://x.com/Arcium), however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
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        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": "https://x.com/Arcium",
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            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
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      "rcg": {
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        "score": 38,
        "caps": [
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        "applied_factors": 6
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      "implied_probability": 1,
      "volume_24h_usd": 196.15,
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      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "occurrence",
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      "question_id": "CMX-954D39D1FC",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
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      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    }
  ],
  "resolution_log": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-NH74HL8LR8",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "outcome": "YES",
      "resolved_at": "2028-01-01T04:59:00Z",
      "final_price": 1,
      "recorded_at": "2026-07-07T06:00:59.667Z",
      "source": "platform_api",
      "source_ref": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-ZQS28GTRY7",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "outcome": "YES",
      "resolved_at": "2027-10-01T03:59:00Z",
      "final_price": 1,
      "recorded_at": "2026-07-07T06:00:59.667Z",
      "source": "platform_api",
      "source_ref": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-GZHCWQLZQ9",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "outcome": "closed",
      "resolved_at": "2027-07-01T03:59:00Z",
      "final_price": null,
      "recorded_at": "2026-07-06",
      "source": "platform_api",
      "source_ref": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-0S4NZBQSK1",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "outcome": "closed",
      "resolved_at": "2027-04-01T03:59:00Z",
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