{
  "_notice": {
    "type": "free_key_offer",
    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
  },
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-S8C9893HH2",
  "slug": "will-axiom-launch-a-token-in-2025",
  "question": "Will Axiom launch a token by 2028?",
  "category": "crypto",
  "event_type": "BINARY",
  "ladder_distribution": null,
  "tags": [
    "crypto",
    "token-launch",
    "axiom",
    "defi-governance",
    "2028"
  ],
  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "These markets track whether Axiom, a crypto project, will launch a native token across three sequential deadlines: end of 2025, end of 2026, and end of 2027. Each market is a binary on Polymarket, structured as a discrete deadline tier rather than a continuous probability range. Earlier deadlines imply shorter runways and lower probability; later deadlines embed the prior periods. Resolution for all three follows Polymarket's UMA Optimistic Oracle protocol.",
  "venues_covered": [
    "polymarket"
  ],
  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-SLRG8KR7Q6",
  "current_primary_mark": {
    "last_price": 0.05,
    "implied_probability": 0.05,
    "as_of": "2026-09-06T05:00:35.185Z"
  },
  "created_at": "2026-08-04T20:03:51.865287+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-08-04T20:03:51.865287+00:00",
  "markets": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-0ZWP4FSDJ7",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-S8C9893HH2",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0xfb82f6acd852d181d5e1895927636d0cd9035c8f29a4495e838d4967977d3dbb",
      "question": "Will Axiom launch a token by December 31, 2027?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Axiom officially launches a token by 11:59 PM ET on the date specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nThe token must be actively and publicly transferable and tradable. Announcements alone do not qualify\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be information from Axiom, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.\n",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "December 31, 2027: Resolution per the event's stated source and mechanism (subject supplied per market).",
      "close_at": "2028-01-01T05:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2028-01-01T05:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Axiom officially launches a token by 11:59 PM ET on the date specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nThe token must be actively and publicly transferable and tradable. Announcements alone do not qualify\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be information from Axiom, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.\n",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": null,
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "information from Axiom",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
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        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_placeholder",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 37,
        "caps": [
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        "applied_factors": 7
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      "last_price": 0.49,
      "implied_probability": 0.49,
      "price_as_of": "2026-08-23T04:00:31.448Z",
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 6941.857861,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "occurrence",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": "CMX-8EB40D9726",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "axiom",
        "axiom token launch",
        "launch",
        "token"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-543MMJBY05",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-S8C9893HH2",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x81eeb2bcf76b850bd9470384cb8fb304c905064a6b6d4c0306027572358477d9",
      "question": "Will Axiom launch a token in 2025?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Axiom officially launches a token by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nThe token must be actively and publicly transferable and tradable. Announcements alone do not qualify\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be information from Axiom, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.\n",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "December 31, 2025: Resolution per the event's stated source and mechanism (subject supplied per market).",
      "close_at": "2026-01-01T04:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-01-01T07:15:21Z",
      "status": "closed",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Axiom officially launches a token by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nThe token must be actively and publicly transferable and tradable. Announcements alone do not qualify\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be information from Axiom, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.\n",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
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        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "information from Axiom",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
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      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 37,
        "caps": [
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          "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
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        "applied_factors": 7
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      "last_price": 1,
      "implied_probability": 1,
      "price_as_of": null,
      "volume_24h_usd": null,
      "volume_total_usd": 15489.545144,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "occurrence",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": "CMX-F4A9BE11C3",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "axiom",
        "axiom token launch",
        "launch",
        "token"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-SLRG8KR7Q6",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-S8C9893HH2",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x07eb65c2a3f1cb716a8f24e7d8e97188f451d2928e59bc2781bcd9a9757b41b8",
      "question": "Will Axiom launch a token by December 31, 2026?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Axiom officially launches a token by 11:59 PM ET on the date specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nThe token must be actively and publicly transferable and tradable. Announcements alone do not qualify\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be information from Axiom, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.\n",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "December 31, 2026: Resolution per the event's stated source and mechanism (subject supplied per market).",
      "close_at": null,
      "resolve_at": null,
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Axiom officially launches a token by 11:59 PM ET on the date specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nThe token must be actively and publicly transferable and tradable. Announcements alone do not qualify\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be information from Axiom, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.\n",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": null,
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "information from Axiom",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
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        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": null,
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        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
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      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 37,
        "caps": [
          "multi_source_no_conflict_rule",
          "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 7
      },
      "last_price": 0.05,
      "implied_probability": 0.05,
      "price_as_of": "2026-09-06T05:00:35.185Z",
      "volume_24h_usd": 1.17,
      "volume_total_usd": 181241.77489100004,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "occurrence",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": "CMX-D865A5744F",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "axiom",
        "axiom token launch",
        "launch",
        "token"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    }
  ],
  "resolution_log": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-543MMJBY05",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "event_type": "status_change",
      "outcome": "closed",
      "resolved_at": "2026-01-01T07:15:21Z",
      "deadline_at": null,
      "occurred_basis": "venue_settlement",
      "final_price": null,
      "recorded_at": "2026-06-12",
      "source": "platform_api",
      "source_ref": null
    }
  ],
  "_provenance": {
    "source": "clearmarket.fyi",
    "ref": "CM-EVT-S8C9893HH2",
    "terms": "Attribution required. clearmarket.fyi"
  }
}