{
  "_notice": {
    "type": "free_key_offer",
    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
  },
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-PZT6DFNS45",
  "slug": "will-base-launch-a-token-in-2025-341",
  "question": "Will Base launch a token by 2026?",
  "category": "crypto",
  "event_type": "BINARY",
  "ladder_distribution": null,
  "tags": [
    "crypto",
    "base-network",
    "token-launch",
    "layer-2",
    "2026",
    "ethereum-ecosystem"
  ],
  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "These markets track whether Base, Coinbase's Ethereum Layer-2 network, will launch a native token by specified deadlines. All six are binary outcome markets on Polymarket, structured as sequential deadline strikes: 2025, June 2026, September 2026, December 2026, June 2027, and December 2027. Later-dated contracts imply higher cumulative probability; spread between strikes prices the market's view on launch timing. Resolution across all contracts uses Polymarket's UMA Optimistic Oracle.",
  "venues_covered": [
    "polymarket"
  ],
  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-1GRWXLB8P0",
  "current_primary_mark": {
    "last_price": 1,
    "implied_probability": 1
  },
  "created_at": "2026-07-06T00:30:45.836226+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-07-06T00:30:45.836226+00:00",
  "markets": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-1GRWXLB8P0",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-PZT6DFNS45",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x03de82c50244e51820f56b682cd2227ce0d35fac94178275811034294a7d1e8b",
      "question": "Will Base launch a token in 2025?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Base officially launches a token by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nThe token must be actively and publicly transferable and tradable. Announcements alone do not qualify\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be information from Base, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.\n",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "December 31, 2025: Resolution per the event's stated source and mechanism (subject supplied per market).",
      "close_at": "2026-01-01T05:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-01-01T07:59:45Z",
      "status": "closed",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Base officially launches a token by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nThe token must be actively and publicly transferable and tradable. Announcements alone do not qualify\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be information from Base, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.\n",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": null,
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "Base",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "a consensus of credible reporting",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": null,
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_placeholder",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 52,
        "caps": [
          "multi_source_no_conflict_rule",
          "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 7
      },
      "last_price": 1,
      "implied_probability": 1,
      "volume_24h_usd": null,
      "volume_total_usd": 4891816.689721,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "occurrence",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": "CMX-30B08DBBED",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "base",
        "launch",
        "token"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-20NXW9N8P5",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-PZT6DFNS45",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x1a659ad303630472713278ed1f3d6489eaaaa0171098dba04df2793dfc16a302",
      "question": "Will Base launch a token by December 31, 2026?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Base officially launches a token by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nThe token must be actively and publicly transferable and tradable. Announcements alone do not qualify\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be information from Base, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.\n",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "December 31, 2026: Resolution per the event's stated source and mechanism (subject supplied per market).",
      "close_at": null,
      "resolve_at": null,
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Base officially launches a token by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nThe token must be actively and publicly transferable and tradable. Announcements alone do not qualify\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be information from Base, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.\n",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": null,
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "Base",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "a consensus of credible reporting",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": null,
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_placeholder",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 52,
        "caps": [
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          "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 7
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      "last_price": 0.13,
      "implied_probability": 0.13,
      "volume_24h_usd": 1085.2923059999998,
      "volume_total_usd": 646757.843796,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "occurrence",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": "CMX-E459821BDA",
      "also_on": [
        {
          "venue": "kalshi",
          "market_id": "CM-MKT-R3883CHZF4",
          "price": 0.26
        }
      ],
      "tags": [
        "base",
        "launch",
        "token"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-HPKZ7PK2Q2",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-PZT6DFNS45",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x9873d0448faebb53d0040a958b40bfd17960f57a164f69a36f2f400e945c36c1",
      "question": "Will Base launch a token by June 30, 2026?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Base officially launches a token by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nThe token must be actively and publicly transferable and tradable. Announcements alone do not qualify\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be information from Base, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.\n",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "June 30, 2026: Resolution per the event's stated source and mechanism (subject supplied per market).",
      "close_at": "2026-06-30T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-06-30T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "resolved",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Base officially launches a token by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nThe token must be actively and publicly transferable and tradable. Announcements alone do not qualify\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be information from Base, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.\n",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": null,
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "Base",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "a consensus of credible reporting",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": null,
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_placeholder",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 52,
        "caps": [
          "multi_source_no_conflict_rule",
          "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 7
      },
      "last_price": 0,
      "implied_probability": 0,
      "volume_24h_usd": 14522.314016,
      "volume_total_usd": 1538395.5329500826,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "occurrence",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": "CMX-E590F6B7ED",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "base",
        "launch",
        "token"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-9ZLJ9788F8",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-PZT6DFNS45",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x06cd4673b8fc846667f7c7de93c10d0499767030c5d9b92bfee07dba445c9f55",
      "question": "Will Base launch a token by September 30, 2026?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Base officially launches a token by 11:59 PM ET on the date specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nOnly an official token launched by Base will qualify. Stablecoins, memecoins, LSTs and synthetic tokens will not count.\n\nThe token must be actively and publicly tradable. Announcements alone do not qualify.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be information from Base (https://x.com/base), however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "September 30, 2026: Resolution per the event's stated source and mechanism (subject supplied per market).",
      "close_at": "2026-10-01T04:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-10-01T04:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Base officially launches a token by 11:59 PM ET on the date specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nOnly an official token launched by Base will qualify. Stablecoins, memecoins, LSTs and synthetic tokens will not count.\n\nThe token must be actively and publicly tradable. Announcements alone do not qualify.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be information from Base (https://x.com/base), however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": null,
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "Base",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "a consensus of credible reporting",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": null,
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_placeholder",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 52,
        "caps": [
          "multi_source_no_conflict_rule",
          "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 7
      },
      "last_price": 0.018,
      "implied_probability": 0.018,
      "volume_24h_usd": 1709.3500000000001,
      "volume_total_usd": 95623.95811799998,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "occurrence",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": "CMX-1F5FFC3850",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "base",
        "launch",
        "token"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-FBZ8R92WL0",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-PZT6DFNS45",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0xc48e17e33742004e4ec5d3386d05f7d723f1c2da37b5cbc56e9ce432e13d8ed4",
      "question": "Will Base launch a token by December 31, 2027?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Base officially launches a token by 11:59 PM ET on the date specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nOnly an official token launched by Base will qualify. Stablecoins, memecoins, LSTs and synthetic tokens will not count.\n\nThe token must be actively and publicly tradable. Announcements alone do not qualify.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be information from Base (https://x.com/base), however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "December 31, 2027: Resolution per the event's stated source and mechanism (subject supplied per market).",
      "close_at": "2028-01-01T05:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2028-01-01T05:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Base officially launches a token by 11:59 PM ET on the date specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nOnly an official token launched by Base will qualify. Stablecoins, memecoins, LSTs and synthetic tokens will not count.\n\nThe token must be actively and publicly tradable. Announcements alone do not qualify.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be information from Base (https://x.com/base), however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": null,
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "Base",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "a consensus of credible reporting",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": null,
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_placeholder",
        "source_hedge_text": null
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      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 52,
        "caps": [
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        "applied_factors": 7
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      "last_price": 0.66,
      "implied_probability": 0.66,
      "volume_24h_usd": 1.35,
      "volume_total_usd": 29497.32209199999,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "occurrence",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": "CMX-69191FEBBA",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "base",
        "launch",
        "token"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-L4Q029Z4F2",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-PZT6DFNS45",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x8f437e892cc897b51f050b07df92f3b80c0cb49c325bf1463d11d18257e0b8a3",
      "question": "Will Base launch a token by June 30, 2027?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Base officially launches a token by 11:59 PM ET on the date specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nOnly an official token launched by Base will qualify. Stablecoins, memecoins, LSTs and synthetic tokens will not count.\n\nThe token must be actively and publicly tradable. Announcements alone do not qualify.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be information from Base (https://x.com/base), however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "June 30, 2027: Resolution per the event's stated source and mechanism (subject supplied per market).",
      "close_at": "2027-07-01T04:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-07-01T04:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Base officially launches a token by 11:59 PM ET on the date specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nOnly an official token launched by Base will qualify. Stablecoins, memecoins, LSTs and synthetic tokens will not count.\n\nThe token must be actively and publicly tradable. Announcements alone do not qualify.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be information from Base (https://x.com/base), however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": null,
        "sources": [
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            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "a consensus of credible reporting",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": null,
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        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_placeholder",
        "source_hedge_text": null
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      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 52,
        "caps": [
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          "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 7
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      "last_price": 0.42,
      "implied_probability": 0.42,
      "volume_24h_usd": 2,
      "volume_total_usd": 9674.952755000004,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "occurrence",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": "CMX-8C4A01B269",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "base",
        "launch",
        "token"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    }
  ],
  "resolution_log": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-HPKZ7PK2Q2",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "outcome": "NO",
      "resolved_at": "2026-06-30T00:00:00Z",
      "final_price": 0,
      "recorded_at": "2026-07-06",
      "source": "platform_api",
      "source_ref": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-1GRWXLB8P0",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "outcome": "closed",
      "resolved_at": "2026-01-01T07:59:45Z",
      "final_price": null,
      "recorded_at": "2026-06-12",
      "source": "platform_api",
      "source_ref": null
    }
  ],
  "_provenance": {
    "source": "clearmarket.fyi",
    "ref": "CM-EVT-PZT6DFNS45",
    "terms": "Attribution required. clearmarket.fyi"
  }
}