{
  "_notice": {
    "type": "free_key_offer",
    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
  },
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-WPFDMLLJ82",
  "slug": "will-bitcoin-replace-sha-256-before-2027",
  "question": "Will Bitcoin replace SHA-256 before 2027?",
  "category": "crypto",
  "event_type": "BINARY",
  "ladder_distribution": null,
  "tags": [
    "crypto",
    "bitcoin",
    "protocol-upgrade",
    "cryptography",
    "2026",
    "technical-feasibility"
  ],
  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "This market tracks whether Bitcoin's proof-of-work protocol replaces SHA-256 as its hashing algorithm before December 31, 2026. Resolution relies on Polymarket's UMA Optimistic Oracle, referencing the Bitcoin blockchain and credible reporting sources. A consensus-level protocol change of this magnitude would require broad miner and node agreement. No credible proposal for such a change exists as of the event window.",
  "venues_covered": [
    "polymarket"
  ],
  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-R6SK5LMTS1",
  "current_primary_mark": {
    "last_price": 0.048,
    "implied_probability": 0.048
  },
  "created_at": "2026-06-03T14:52:43.794845+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-06-03T14:52:43.794845+00:00",
  "markets": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-R6SK5LMTS1",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-WPFDMLLJ82",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0xf3233a75da0de4e80c3de26ca3ff74c3c69a7d77f137bf5ff425224574c1db94",
      "question": "Will Bitcoin replace SHA-256 before 2027?",
      "description": "On December 9, Google introduced Willow, a breakthrough state-of-the-art quantum chip. This achievement fueled speculation that Bitcoin's encryption may be vulnerable to quantum computers in the not-so-distant future (see https://www.cryptoglobe.com/latest/2024/12/does-googles-new-quantum-chip-willow-threaten-bitcoin-the-crypto-community-responds/).\n\nThis market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Bitcoin stops using SHA-256 by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No.\"\n\nThe resolution source will be the Bitcoin blockchain, in addition to a consensus of credible reportin",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "The Bitcoin blockchain and credible reporting sources determine whether Bitcoin has stopped using SHA-256 by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.",
      "close_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "On December 9, Google introduced Willow, a breakthrough state-of-the-art quantum chip. This achievement fueled speculation that Bitcoin's encryption may be vulnerable to quantum computers in the not-so-distant future (see https://www.cryptoglobe.com/latest/2024/12/does-googles-new-quantum-chip-willow-threaten-bitcoin-the-crypto-community-responds/).\n\nThis market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Bitcoin stops using SHA-256 by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No.\"\n\nThe resolution source will be the Bitcoin blockchain, in addition to a consensus of credible reporting.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": "https://www.cryptoglobe.com/latest/2024/12/does-googles-new-quantum-chip-willow-threaten-bitcoin-the-crypto-community-responds/",
        "sources": null,
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": null,
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_placeholder",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 63,
        "caps": [
          "multi_source_no_conflict_rule",
          "uncommitted_placeholder"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 7
      },
      "last_price": 0.048,
      "implied_probability": 0.048,
      "volume_24h_usd": 100,
      "volume_total_usd": 193650.14835999918,
      "settlement_style": "occurrence",
      "direction": "occurrence",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": "CMX-4193083FB3",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "bitcoin",
        "cryptography",
        "protocol",
        "sha-256"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    }
  ],
  "resolution_log": [],
  "_provenance": {
    "source": "clearmarket.fyi",
    "ref": "CM-EVT-WPFDMLLJ82",
    "terms": "Attribution required. clearmarket.fyi"
  }
}