{
  "_notice": {
    "type": "free_key_offer",
    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
  },
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-SBTS7J1388",
  "slug": "will-cambria-launch-a-token-by",
  "question": "Will Cambria launch a token by 2026?",
  "category": "crypto",
  "event_type": "BINARY",
  "ladder_distribution": null,
  "tags": [
    "crypto",
    "token-launch",
    "cambria",
    "2026",
    "defi-infrastructure",
    "mechanism-binary"
  ],
  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "These markets track whether Cambria will launch a token across seven sequential quarterly deadlines spanning 2026 through 2027. Each contract prices a binary yes/no outcome for the same underlying event at a progressively later cutoff. Longer-dated contracts carry structurally higher implied probability, embedding time-value of launch uncertainty. All seven resolve via Polymarket's UMA Optimistic Oracle.",
  "venues_covered": [
    "polymarket"
  ],
  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-32WJTHTBZ3",
  "current_primary_mark": {
    "last_price": 0.001,
    "implied_probability": 0.001,
    "as_of": null
  },
  "created_at": "2026-08-04T20:03:51.865287+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-08-04T20:03:51.865287+00:00",
  "markets": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-32WJTHTBZ3",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-SBTS7J1388",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0xa3fae3f2599679528bb3f048c4e911b5e1b1970b830985e479fa3fe40e302377",
      "question": "Will Cambria launch a token by June 30, 2026?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Cambria officially launches a token by 11:59 PM ET on the date specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nOnly an official token launched by Cambria will qualify. Stablecoins, memecoins, LSTs and synthetic tokens will not count.\n\nThe token must be actively and publicly tradable. Announcements alone do not qualify.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be information from Cambria (https://x.com/playcambria), however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "June 30, 2026: Resolution per the event's stated source and mechanism (subject supplied per market).",
      "close_at": "2026-07-01T03:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-07-01T10:46:53Z",
      "status": "closed",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Cambria officially launches a token by 11:59 PM ET on the date specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nOnly an official token launched by Cambria will qualify. Stablecoins, memecoins, LSTs and synthetic tokens will not count.\n\nThe token must be actively and publicly tradable. Announcements alone do not qualify.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be information from Cambria (https://x.com/playcambria), however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": "https://x.com/playcambria",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "x.com",
            "url": "https://x.com/playcambria",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "https://x.com/playcambria",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": null,
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_placeholder",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 34,
        "caps": [
          "multi_source_no_conflict_rule",
          "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 7
      },
      "last_price": 0.001,
      "implied_probability": 0.001,
      "price_as_of": null,
      "volume_24h_usd": null,
      "volume_total_usd": 30569.637468999867,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "occurrence",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": "CMX-787AE13DFD",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "cambria",
        "cambria token launch",
        "crypto",
        "token"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-VD8H8VRX28",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-SBTS7J1388",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x76151e439f0133b0ec1070f3b0045b95de7f84db8bcad1eb75f8b49ff7f10544",
      "question": "Will Cambria launch a token by September 30, 2026?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Cambria officially launches a token by 11:59 PM ET on the date specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nOnly an official token launched by Cambria will qualify. Stablecoins, memecoins, LSTs and synthetic tokens will not count.\n\nThe token must be actively and publicly tradable. Announcements alone do not qualify.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be information from Cambria (https://x.com/playcambria), however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "September 30, 2026: Resolution per the event's stated source and mechanism (subject supplied per market).",
      "close_at": "2026-10-01T03:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-10-01T03:59:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Cambria officially launches a token by 11:59 PM ET on the date specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nOnly an official token launched by Cambria will qualify. Stablecoins, memecoins, LSTs and synthetic tokens will not count.\n\nThe token must be actively and publicly tradable. Announcements alone do not qualify.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be information from Cambria (https://x.com/playcambria), however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": "https://x.com/playcambria",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "x.com",
            "url": "https://x.com/playcambria",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "https://x.com/playcambria",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": null,
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_placeholder",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 34,
        "caps": [
          "multi_source_no_conflict_rule",
          "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 7
      },
      "last_price": 0.34,
      "implied_probability": 0.34,
      "price_as_of": "2026-09-06T06:00:48.475Z",
      "volume_24h_usd": 140.5,
      "volume_total_usd": 27037.727235,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "occurrence",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": "CMX-FFE346C982",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "cambria",
        "cambria token launch",
        "crypto",
        "token"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-XHV87PWFX3",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-SBTS7J1388",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x4ec70773f38e1767152a16602aa3358c7843cc0c661643cfc1c290014c849ed6",
      "question": "Will Cambria launch a token by December 31, 2026?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Cambria officially launches a token by 11:59 PM ET on the date specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nOnly an official token launched by Cambria will qualify. Stablecoins, memecoins, LSTs and synthetic tokens will not count.\n\nThe token must be actively and publicly tradable. Announcements alone do not qualify.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be information from Cambria (https://x.com/playcambria), however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "December 31, 2026: Resolution per the event's stated source and mechanism (subject supplied per market).",
      "close_at": "2027-01-01T04:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-01-01T04:59:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Cambria officially launches a token by 11:59 PM ET on the date specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nOnly an official token launched by Cambria will qualify. Stablecoins, memecoins, LSTs and synthetic tokens will not count.\n\nThe token must be actively and publicly tradable. Announcements alone do not qualify.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be information from Cambria (https://x.com/playcambria), however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": "https://x.com/playcambria",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "x.com",
            "url": "https://x.com/playcambria",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "https://x.com/playcambria",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": null,
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_placeholder",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 34,
        "caps": [
          "multi_source_no_conflict_rule",
          "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 7
      },
      "last_price": 0.942,
      "implied_probability": 0.942,
      "price_as_of": "2026-09-06T05:00:35.185Z",
      "volume_24h_usd": 17.39,
      "volume_total_usd": 19875.028699,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "occurrence",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": "CMX-145F1BF7B0",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "cambria",
        "cambria token launch",
        "crypto",
        "token"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-W1T14T73G7",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-SBTS7J1388",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x6a2c8e4ae710ee142aec527e1410ce59789443997e061e0bf81a81d8989658dc",
      "question": "Will Cambria launch a token by March 31, 2027?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Cambria officially launches a token by 11:59 PM ET on the date specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nOnly an official token launched by Cambria will qualify. Stablecoins, memecoins, LSTs and synthetic tokens will not count.\n\nThe token must be actively and publicly tradable. Announcements alone do not qualify.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be information from Cambria (https://x.com/playcambria), however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "March 31, 2027: Resolution per the event's stated source and mechanism (subject supplied per market).",
      "close_at": "2027-04-01T03:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-04-01T03:59:00Z",
      "status": "closed",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Cambria officially launches a token by 11:59 PM ET on the date specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nOnly an official token launched by Cambria will qualify. Stablecoins, memecoins, LSTs and synthetic tokens will not count.\n\nThe token must be actively and publicly tradable. Announcements alone do not qualify.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be information from Cambria (https://x.com/playcambria), however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": "https://x.com/playcambria",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "x.com",
            "url": "https://x.com/playcambria",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "https://x.com/playcambria",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": null,
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_placeholder",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 34,
        "caps": [
          "multi_source_no_conflict_rule",
          "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 7
      },
      "last_price": null,
      "implied_probability": null,
      "price_as_of": null,
      "volume_24h_usd": null,
      "volume_total_usd": null,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "occurrence",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": "CMX-4ADC177BE8",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "cambria",
        "cambria token launch",
        "crypto",
        "token"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-ZG29DZH4J2",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-SBTS7J1388",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0xde49966c8e1ab93f58c06ea9aea867967ea6dadc8bc4f7058ec9c49b61f23f33",
      "question": "Will Cambria launch a token by June 30, 2027?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Cambria officially launches a token by 11:59 PM ET on the date specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nOnly an official token launched by Cambria will qualify. Stablecoins, memecoins, LSTs and synthetic tokens will not count.\n\nThe token must be actively and publicly tradable. Announcements alone do not qualify.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be information from Cambria (https://x.com/playcambria), however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "June 30, 2027: Resolution per the event's stated source and mechanism (subject supplied per market).",
      "close_at": "2027-07-01T03:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-07-01T03:59:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Cambria officially launches a token by 11:59 PM ET on the date specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nOnly an official token launched by Cambria will qualify. Stablecoins, memecoins, LSTs and synthetic tokens will not count.\n\nThe token must be actively and publicly tradable. Announcements alone do not qualify.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be information from Cambria (https://x.com/playcambria), however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": "https://x.com/playcambria",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "x.com",
            "url": "https://x.com/playcambria",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "https://x.com/playcambria",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": null,
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_placeholder",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 34,
        "caps": [
          "multi_source_no_conflict_rule",
          "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 7
      },
      "last_price": 0.953,
      "implied_probability": 0.953,
      "price_as_of": "2026-09-05T03:00:43.256Z",
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 21459.234866000003,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "occurrence",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": "CMX-9E54EA0F65",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "cambria",
        "cambria token launch",
        "crypto",
        "token"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-SC12XF55K6",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-SBTS7J1388",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x739cbfbf61dc73e9e07df23dc097e5c71f33904e21a5ff841d562b16553a0aa7",
      "question": "Will Cambria launch a token by September 30, 2027?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Cambria officially launches a token by 11:59 PM ET on the date specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nOnly an official token launched by Cambria will qualify. Stablecoins, memecoins, LSTs and synthetic tokens will not count.\n\nThe token must be actively and publicly tradable. Announcements alone do not qualify.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be information from Cambria (https://x.com/playcambria), however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "September 30, 2027: Resolution per the event's stated source and mechanism (subject supplied per market).",
      "close_at": "2027-10-01T03:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-10-01T03:59:00Z",
      "status": "closed",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Cambria officially launches a token by 11:59 PM ET on the date specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nOnly an official token launched by Cambria will qualify. Stablecoins, memecoins, LSTs and synthetic tokens will not count.\n\nThe token must be actively and publicly tradable. Announcements alone do not qualify.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be information from Cambria (https://x.com/playcambria), however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": "https://x.com/playcambria",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "x.com",
            "url": "https://x.com/playcambria",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "https://x.com/playcambria",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": null,
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_placeholder",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 34,
        "caps": [
          "multi_source_no_conflict_rule",
          "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 7
      },
      "last_price": null,
      "implied_probability": null,
      "price_as_of": null,
      "volume_24h_usd": null,
      "volume_total_usd": null,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "occurrence",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": "CMX-31A021610D",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "cambria",
        "cambria token launch",
        "crypto",
        "token"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-M9GM0Z6ZX5",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-SBTS7J1388",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0xdf032ab101ff8994817d27168a87c54d159939129e3484a042dae76987b80bb7",
      "question": "Will Cambria launch a token by December 31, 2027?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Cambria officially launches a token by 11:59 PM ET on the date specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nOnly an official token launched by Cambria will qualify. Stablecoins, memecoins, LSTs and synthetic tokens will not count.\n\nThe token must be actively and publicly tradable. Announcements alone do not qualify.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be information from Cambria (https://x.com/playcambria), however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "December 31, 2027: Resolution per the event's stated source and mechanism (subject supplied per market).",
      "close_at": "2028-01-01T04:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2028-01-01T04:59:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Cambria officially launches a token by 11:59 PM ET on the date specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nOnly an official token launched by Cambria will qualify. Stablecoins, memecoins, LSTs and synthetic tokens will not count.\n\nThe token must be actively and publicly tradable. Announcements alone do not qualify.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be information from Cambria (https://x.com/playcambria), however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": "https://x.com/playcambria",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "x.com",
            "url": "https://x.com/playcambria",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "https://x.com/playcambria",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": null,
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_placeholder",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 34,
        "caps": [
          "multi_source_no_conflict_rule",
          "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 7
      },
      "last_price": 0.99,
      "implied_probability": 0.99,
      "price_as_of": "2026-08-31T20:00:42.821Z",
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 12388.146849000002,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "occurrence",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": "CMX-1EE653C3F1",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "cambria",
        "cambria token launch",
        "crypto",
        "token"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    }
  ],
  "resolution_log": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-SC12XF55K6",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "event_type": "status_change",
      "outcome": "closed",
      "resolved_at": null,
      "deadline_at": "2027-10-01T03:59:00Z",
      "occurred_basis": "deadline",
      "final_price": null,
      "recorded_at": "2026-07-06",
      "source": "platform_api",
      "source_ref": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-W1T14T73G7",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "event_type": "status_change",
      "outcome": "closed",
      "resolved_at": null,
      "deadline_at": "2027-04-01T03:59:00Z",
      "occurred_basis": "deadline",
      "final_price": null,
      "recorded_at": "2026-07-06",
      "source": "platform_api",
      "source_ref": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-32WJTHTBZ3",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "event_type": "status_change",
      "outcome": "closed",
      "resolved_at": "2026-07-01T10:46:53Z",
      "deadline_at": null,
      "occurred_basis": "venue_settlement",
      "final_price": null,
      "recorded_at": "2026-07-06",
      "source": "platform_api",
      "source_ref": null
    }
  ],
  "_provenance": {
    "source": "clearmarket.fyi",
    "ref": "CM-EVT-SBTS7J1388",
    "terms": "Attribution required. clearmarket.fyi"
  }
}