{
  "_notice": {
    "type": "free_key_offer",
    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
  },
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-WZCWJQMLN0",
  "slug": "will-cap-launch-a-token-by",
  "question": "Will Cap launch a token by 2026?",
  "category": "crypto",
  "event_type": "BINARY",
  "ladder_distribution": null,
  "tags": [
    "crypto",
    "token-launch",
    "cap-protocol",
    "2026",
    "defi-governance",
    "launch-deadline"
  ],
  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "These markets track whether Cap, a crypto protocol, will launch a native token by a series of quarterly deadlines spanning 2026 and 2027. Each contract is a binary outcome tied to a distinct deadline, creating an implied probability term structure across seven expiries. All seven markets resolve via Polymarket's UMA Optimistic Oracle. No external authoritative publisher is specified; resolution depends on observable on-chain or public announcement evidence assessed at each deadline.",
  "venues_covered": [
    "polymarket"
  ],
  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-2NVQXQC359",
  "current_primary_mark": {
    "last_price": 1,
    "implied_probability": 1
  },
  "created_at": "2026-07-06T00:30:45.836226+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-07-06T00:30:45.836226+00:00",
  "markets": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-2NVQXQC359",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-WZCWJQMLN0",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x202b5145de8f4bbc5ad2c1cd060cb0654bb65307b241357c67eabbe450c4fbcc",
      "question": "Will Cap launch a token by June 30, 2026?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Cap officially launches a token by 11:59 PM ET on the date specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nOnly an official token launched by Cap will qualify. Stablecoins, memecoins, LSTs and synthetic tokens will not count.\n\nThe token must be actively and publicly tradable. Announcements alone do not qualify.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be information from Cap (https://x.com/CapApp), however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "June 30, 2026: Resolution per the event's stated source and mechanism (subject supplied per market).",
      "close_at": "2026-07-01T03:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-07-01T03:59:00Z",
      "status": "resolved",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Cap officially launches a token by 11:59 PM ET on the date specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nOnly an official token launched by Cap will qualify. Stablecoins, memecoins, LSTs and synthetic tokens will not count.\n\nThe token must be actively and publicly tradable. Announcements alone do not qualify.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be information from Cap (https://x.com/CapApp), however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": "https://x.com/CapApp",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "x.com",
            "url": "https://x.com/CapApp",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Cap (https://x.com/CapApp)",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_placeholder",
        "source_hedge_text": null
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      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 40,
        "caps": [
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        "applied_factors": 6
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      "last_price": 1,
      "implied_probability": 1,
      "volume_24h_usd": 1744.3100000000002,
      "volume_total_usd": 41264.82802499969,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "reach",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": "CMX-9CECB72F2E",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "cap",
        "launch",
        "token"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-MNFPBNJ1B0",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-WZCWJQMLN0",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x8dc5cd88742a3eafc9ec05a4d631bd55ce39147be8bd0fae6051a7f5373a9ea3",
      "question": "Will Cap launch a token by September 30, 2026?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Cap officially launches a token by 11:59 PM ET on the date specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nOnly an official token launched by Cap will qualify. Stablecoins, memecoins, LSTs and synthetic tokens will not count.\n\nThe token must be actively and publicly tradable. Announcements alone do not qualify.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be information from Cap (https://x.com/CapApp), however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "September 30, 2026: Resolution per the event's stated source and mechanism (subject supplied per market).",
      "close_at": "2026-10-01T03:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-10-01T03:59:00Z",
      "status": "resolved",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Cap officially launches a token by 11:59 PM ET on the date specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nOnly an official token launched by Cap will qualify. Stablecoins, memecoins, LSTs and synthetic tokens will not count.\n\nThe token must be actively and publicly tradable. Announcements alone do not qualify.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be information from Cap (https://x.com/CapApp), however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": "https://x.com/CapApp",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "x.com",
            "url": "https://x.com/CapApp",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
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          {
            "name": "Cap (https://x.com/CapApp)",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
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      "rcg": {
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        "score": 40,
        "caps": [
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        "applied_factors": 6
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      "last_price": 1,
      "implied_probability": 1,
      "volume_24h_usd": 3871.3,
      "volume_total_usd": 9022.489201999999,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "reach",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": "CMX-308426DE63",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "cap",
        "launch",
        "token"
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      "eligibility_screens": null
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    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-1S2B116J12",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-WZCWJQMLN0",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x606425614d8e94e202742daebcde3123b337838436bb2f1514ae22d2f0dba76b",
      "question": "Will Cap launch a token by March 31, 2027?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Cap officially launches a token by 11:59 PM ET on the date specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nOnly an official token launched by Cap will qualify. Stablecoins, memecoins, LSTs and synthetic tokens will not count.\n\nThe token must be actively and publicly tradable. Announcements alone do not qualify.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be information from Cap (https://x.com/CapApp), however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "March 31, 2027: Resolution per the event's stated source and mechanism (subject supplied per market).",
      "close_at": "2027-04-01T03:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-04-01T03:59:00Z",
      "status": "closed",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Cap officially launches a token by 11:59 PM ET on the date specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nOnly an official token launched by Cap will qualify. Stablecoins, memecoins, LSTs and synthetic tokens will not count.\n\nThe token must be actively and publicly tradable. Announcements alone do not qualify.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be information from Cap (https://x.com/CapApp), however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": "https://x.com/CapApp",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "x.com",
            "url": "https://x.com/CapApp",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Cap (https://x.com/CapApp)",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_placeholder",
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      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 40,
        "caps": [
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        "applied_factors": 6
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      "last_price": null,
      "implied_probability": null,
      "volume_24h_usd": null,
      "volume_total_usd": null,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "reach",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": "CMX-0E7EDAE1AC",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "cap",
        "launch",
        "token"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-4JX204NDY5",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-WZCWJQMLN0",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0xb93cbe8b6272bb25db17eb2e0982adf17fc9aac384c6b97ea17f94a6494053ba",
      "question": "Will Cap launch a token by June 30, 2027?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Cap officially launches a token by 11:59 PM ET on the date specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nOnly an official token launched by Cap will qualify. Stablecoins, memecoins, LSTs and synthetic tokens will not count.\n\nThe token must be actively and publicly tradable. Announcements alone do not qualify.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be information from Cap (https://x.com/CapApp), however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "June 30, 2027: Resolution per the event's stated source and mechanism (subject supplied per market).",
      "close_at": "2027-07-01T03:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-07-01T03:59:00Z",
      "status": "resolved",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Cap officially launches a token by 11:59 PM ET on the date specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nOnly an official token launched by Cap will qualify. Stablecoins, memecoins, LSTs and synthetic tokens will not count.\n\nThe token must be actively and publicly tradable. Announcements alone do not qualify.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be information from Cap (https://x.com/CapApp), however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": "https://x.com/CapApp",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "x.com",
            "url": "https://x.com/CapApp",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Cap (https://x.com/CapApp)",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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        ],
        "source_of_record": null,
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        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_placeholder",
        "source_hedge_text": null
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      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 40,
        "caps": [
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        "applied_factors": 6
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      "last_price": 1,
      "implied_probability": 1,
      "volume_24h_usd": 33.33,
      "volume_total_usd": 8680.614028,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "reach",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": "CMX-E933C719B3",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "cap",
        "launch",
        "token"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-PPLDKRP4H2",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-WZCWJQMLN0",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x9254a73604f6ba960b3784f72494166e57d26c9dc5b60bf756712676c57104ac",
      "question": "Will Cap launch a token by December 31, 2027?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Cap officially launches a token by 11:59 PM ET on the date specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nOnly an official token launched by Cap will qualify. Stablecoins, memecoins, LSTs and synthetic tokens will not count.\n\nThe token must be actively and publicly tradable. Announcements alone do not qualify.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be information from Cap (https://x.com/CapApp), however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "December 31, 2027: Resolution per the event's stated source and mechanism (subject supplied per market).",
      "close_at": "2028-01-01T04:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2028-01-01T04:59:00Z",
      "status": "closed",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Cap officially launches a token by 11:59 PM ET on the date specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nOnly an official token launched by Cap will qualify. Stablecoins, memecoins, LSTs and synthetic tokens will not count.\n\nThe token must be actively and publicly tradable. Announcements alone do not qualify.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be information from Cap (https://x.com/CapApp), however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
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        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": "https://x.com/CapApp",
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        "applied_factors": 6
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      "implied_probability": null,
      "volume_24h_usd": null,
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      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "reach",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": "CMX-CF9B2E8D42",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "cap",
        "launch",
        "token"
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      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-5GMP621G91",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-WZCWJQMLN0",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x7a48d1778a338e3ef37a4a6ed908e1e81731997eb2cf754c9e50d8d1145bcd02",
      "question": "Will Cap launch a token by December 31, 2026?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Cap officially launches a token by 11:59 PM ET on the date specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nOnly an official token launched by Cap will qualify. Stablecoins, memecoins, LSTs and synthetic tokens will not count.\n\nThe token must be actively and publicly tradable. Announcements alone do not qualify.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be information from Cap (https://x.com/CapApp), however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "December 31, 2026: Resolution per the event's stated source and mechanism (subject supplied per market).",
      "close_at": "2027-01-01T04:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-01-01T04:59:00Z",
      "status": "resolved",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Cap officially launches a token by 11:59 PM ET on the date specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nOnly an official token launched by Cap will qualify. Stablecoins, memecoins, LSTs and synthetic tokens will not count.\n\nThe token must be actively and publicly tradable. Announcements alone do not qualify.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be information from Cap (https://x.com/CapApp), however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
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        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": "https://x.com/CapApp",
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            "name": "x.com",
            "url": "https://x.com/CapApp",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Cap (https://x.com/CapApp)",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
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      "rcg": {
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        "applied_factors": 6
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      "last_price": 1,
      "implied_probability": 1,
      "volume_24h_usd": 1763.34,
      "volume_total_usd": 5022.21262,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "reach",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": "CMX-99AFEBB581",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "cap",
        "launch",
        "token"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-YR75G643L9",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-WZCWJQMLN0",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x175953a83dd5318d16bb287b72a4321550798fa9ea62977d357ced7bb6f3e7e2",
      "question": "Will Cap launch a token by September 30, 2027?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Cap officially launches a token by 11:59 PM ET on the date specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nOnly an official token launched by Cap will qualify. Stablecoins, memecoins, LSTs and synthetic tokens will not count.\n\nThe token must be actively and publicly tradable. Announcements alone do not qualify.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be information from Cap (https://x.com/CapApp), however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "September 30, 2027: Resolution per the event's stated source and mechanism (subject supplied per market).",
      "close_at": "2027-10-01T03:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-10-01T03:59:00Z",
      "status": "closed",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Cap officially launches a token by 11:59 PM ET on the date specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nOnly an official token launched by Cap will qualify. Stablecoins, memecoins, LSTs and synthetic tokens will not count.\n\nThe token must be actively and publicly tradable. Announcements alone do not qualify.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be information from Cap (https://x.com/CapApp), however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": "https://x.com/CapApp",
        "sources": [
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            "name": "x.com",
            "url": "https://x.com/CapApp",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
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            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
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      "rcg": {
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        "score": 40,
        "caps": [
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        "applied_factors": 6
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      "last_price": null,
      "implied_probability": null,
      "volume_24h_usd": null,
      "volume_total_usd": null,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "reach",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": "CMX-BEBCAFFDDF",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "cap",
        "launch",
        "token"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    }
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  "resolution_log": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-PPLDKRP4H2",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "outcome": "closed",
      "resolved_at": "2028-01-01T04:59:00Z",
      "final_price": null,
      "recorded_at": "2026-07-06",
      "source": "platform_api",
      "source_ref": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-YR75G643L9",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "outcome": "closed",
      "resolved_at": "2027-10-01T03:59:00Z",
      "final_price": null,
      "recorded_at": "2026-07-06",
      "source": "platform_api",
      "source_ref": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-4JX204NDY5",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "outcome": "YES",
      "resolved_at": "2027-07-01T03:59:00Z",
      "final_price": 1,
      "recorded_at": "2026-07-07T06:00:59.667Z",
      "source": "platform_api",
      "source_ref": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-1S2B116J12",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "outcome": "closed",
      "resolved_at": "2027-04-01T03:59:00Z",
      "final_price": null,
      "recorded_at": "2026-07-06",
      "source": "platform_api",
      "source_ref": null
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