{
  "_notice": {
    "type": "free_key_offer",
    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
  },
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-GGH2SNK8K1",
  "slug": "will-cducsuspd-german-federal-coalition-break-before-2027",
  "question": "Will the CDU/CSU–SPD German federal coalition break before 2027?",
  "category": "politics",
  "event_type": "BINARY",
  "ladder_distribution": null,
  "tags": [
    "politics",
    "german-politics",
    "coalition-stability",
    "2026",
    "government-formation"
  ],
  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "This market tracks whether the CDU/CSU-SPD governing coalition in Germany collapses before January 1, 2027. A single Polymarket binary contract prices coalition survival, resolving YES if the coalition breaks before that date. Resolution relies on Polymarket's UMA Optimistic Oracle against official German Federal Government announcements. No cross-platform structural contrast is available; only one market exists under this event.",
  "venues_covered": [
    "polymarket"
  ],
  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-KRHY6JQV60",
  "current_primary_mark": {
    "last_price": 0.12,
    "implied_probability": 0.12
  },
  "created_at": "2026-06-03T14:52:43.794845+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-06-03T14:52:43.794845+00:00",
  "markets": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-KRHY6JQV60",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-GGH2SNK8K1",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0xe9507a620bd277e230da3b945af4dbd7278748c73c73b2704777cea088fbe568",
      "question": "Will CDU/CSU–SPD German federal coalition break before 2027?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if the governing coalition consisting of CDU/CSU and SPD breaks by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM CET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”\n\nFor the purposes of this market, the coalition is considered broken if either CDU/CSU or SPD ceases to be a coalition partner in the federal government.\n\nA coalition break may be evidenced by:\n– a formal withdrawal from the coalition,\n– the resignation or dismissal of all ministers from one party,\n– or the appointment of a new federal government.\n\nIf all ministers affiliated with one of the coalition parties resign o",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "The German Federal Government's official announcements or actions regarding CDU/CSU or SPD coalition participation, or appointment of a new federal government, by December 31, 2026.",
      "close_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if the governing coalition consisting of CDU/CSU and SPD breaks by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM CET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”\n\nFor the purposes of this market, the coalition is considered broken if either CDU/CSU or SPD ceases to be a coalition partner in the federal government.\n\nA coalition break may be evidenced by:\n– a formal withdrawal from the coalition,\n– the resignation or dismissal of all ministers from one party,\n– or the appointment of a new federal government.\n\nIf all ministers affiliated with one of the coalition parties resign or are dismissed, this may signal that party’s withdrawal from the coalition, even if one or more individuals remain in office as independents or continue without representing the party.\n\nIf the coalition breaks and the sitting Chancellor remains in office with a new coalition or as a minority government, this market will still resolve to “Yes.”\n\nThe break date is the date on which it becomes officially confirmed that the coalition has broken; mere reports of negotiations, speculation, or indications of an impending break will not suffice.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the German government; however, a consensus of credible reporting from major reputable news outlets may also be used.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": null,
        "sources": null,
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": null,
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_placeholder",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 37,
        "caps": [
          "multi_source_no_conflict_rule",
          "uncommitted_placeholder"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 7
      },
      "last_price": 0.12,
      "implied_probability": 0.12,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 66827.61002600021,
      "settlement_style": "occurrence",
      "direction": "occurrence",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "cdu",
        "coalition",
        "csu",
        "german federal coalition",
        "germany",
        "politics",
        "spd"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    }
  ],
  "resolution_log": [],
  "_provenance": {
    "source": "clearmarket.fyi",
    "ref": "CM-EVT-GGH2SNK8K1",
    "terms": "Attribution required. clearmarket.fyi"
  }
}