{
  "_notice": {
    "type": "free_key_offer",
    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
  },
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-JFPFGG3Q06",
  "slug": "will-china-blockade-taiwan-by-in-2026",
  "question": "Will China blockade Taiwan in 2026?",
  "category": "geopolitics",
  "event_type": "BINARY",
  "ladder_distribution": null,
  "tags": [
    "geopolitics",
    "china-taiwan",
    "military-conflict",
    "economic-sanctions",
    "2026"
  ],
  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "This event tracks whether China announces or de facto establishes an aerial or naval blockade of Taiwan before December 31, 2026. A single Polymarket binary prices the yes/no outcome directly. Resolution follows Polymarket's UMA Optimistic Oracle, which requires documented evidence of a formal announcement or operational blockade. The de facto threshold introduces ambiguity, as partial encirclement exercises may not meet the resolution bar.",
  "venues_covered": [
    "polymarket"
  ],
  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-6M9SVCD175",
  "current_primary_mark": {
    "last_price": 0.08,
    "implied_probability": 0.08
  },
  "created_at": "2026-07-23T21:11:14.426158+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-07-23T21:11:14.426158+00:00",
  "markets": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-6M9SVCD175",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-JFPFGG3Q06",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x96498c10c79ecaafa2bbb92ada36c7ff617913b03d9220f8c95ce7d6776a0b0c",
      "question": "Will China blockade Taiwan in 2026?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if China (People's Republic of China) announces it has established or otherwise de facto establishes an aerial or naval blockade for the territory of Taiwan (Republic of China) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nA qualifying blockade is:\n- Prevents the normal ingress or egress of foreign commercial traffic to or from Taiwan Island’s main ports or airports by threat or use of force for ≥ 24 hours.\n- Covers part or whole of the main island of Taiwan (Formosa).\n- Is declared and enforced, de facto (e.g., it is establi",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "UMA Optimistic Oracle resolves based on whether China announces or de facto establishes an aerial or naval blockade preventing normal foreign commercial traffic to Taiwan's main ports or airports for at least 24 hours by December 31, 2026.",
      "close_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if China (People's Republic of China) announces it has established or otherwise de facto establishes an aerial or naval blockade for the territory of Taiwan (Republic of China) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nA qualifying blockade is:\n- Prevents the normal ingress or egress of foreign commercial traffic to or from Taiwan Island’s main ports or airports by threat or use of force for ≥ 24 hours.\n- Covers part or whole of the main island of Taiwan (Formosa).\n- Is declared and enforced, de facto (e.g., it is established that China is blocking a significant portion of foreign commercial traffic, as described above, by a wide consensus of credible reporting regardless of whether China has issued a statement or not), or China-issued navigation/airspace prohibitions covering Taiwan's main island's approach lanes that are actively enforced so that most foreign commercial access is denied.\n\nA qualifying blockade is not:\n- Military or naval exercises or drills (established with warning areas or NOTAMs that do not actively stop third-country ships/aircraft and do not materially deny access).\n- Purely economic or coercive measures (e.g., sanctions, customs delays, fishing bans, cyber/GPS jamming) without physical interdiction or enforced closure).\n- Weather/accident-related closures or voluntary rerouting by operators absent PRC enforcement.\n- Islet-only incidents that do not involve the main island of Taiwan.\n- Seizure or inspection of a single vessel/aircraft by itself, unless part of an enforced pattern that denies access as defined above.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": null,
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "a broad consensus of credible reporting",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": null,
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_placeholder",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 10,
        "caps": [
          "multi_source_no_conflict_rule",
          "discretionary_trigger_no_source",
          "adversarial_ground_truth",
          "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 7
      },
      "last_price": 0.08,
      "implied_probability": 0.08,
      "volume_24h_usd": 25552.155166,
      "volume_total_usd": 186754.05893199996,
      "settlement_style": "occurrence",
      "direction": "occurrence",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "blockade",
        "china",
        "china blockade taiwan",
        "geopolitics",
        "taiwan"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    }
  ],
  "resolution_log": [],
  "_provenance": {
    "source": "clearmarket.fyi",
    "ref": "CM-EVT-JFPFGG3Q06",
    "terms": "Attribution required. clearmarket.fyi"
  }
}