{
  "_notice": {
    "type": "free_key_offer",
    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
  },
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-88MHYHB1X3",
  "slug": "will-china-invade-taiwan-by-june-30-2026",
  "question": "Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026?",
  "category": "geopolitics",
  "event_type": "BINARY",
  "ladder_distribution": null,
  "tags": [
    "geopolitics",
    "china-taiwan",
    "military-conflict",
    "asia-pacific",
    "2026",
    "near-term-event"
  ],
  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "This market tracks whether China will initiate a military invasion of Taiwan before June 30, 2026. Polymarket prices a binary outcome, resolving YES on official confirmation from China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent UN Security Council member. Resolution follows Polymarket's UMA Optimistic Oracle protocol. No cross-platform structural contrast is available; only one market is listed.",
  "venues_covered": [
    "polymarket"
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  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-DFQ3FZJR24",
  "current_primary_mark": {
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    "implied_probability": 0
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  "created_at": "2026-07-06T00:30:45.836226+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-07-06T00:30:45.836226+00:00",
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    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-DFQ3FZJR24",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-88MHYHB1X3",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0xa0b56d7e621c7cbcfa47fe1a9c24f3409e189180fd6bda55b7a8113129839afc",
      "question": "Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nTerritory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify. \n\nThe resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also ",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "Official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent UN Security Council member regarding Chinese military offensive against Taiwan by June 30, 2026, or consensus of credible reporting thereof.",
      "close_at": "2026-06-30T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-06-30T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "resolved",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nTerritory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify. \n\nThe resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": null,
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "official confirmation by China",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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          {
            "name": "a consensus of credible reporting",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
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      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 30,
        "caps": [
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        "applied_factors": 7
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      "last_price": 0,
      "implied_probability": 0,
      "volume_24h_usd": 38756.795077999996,
      "volume_total_usd": 10856879.638012799,
      "settlement_style": "occurrence",
      "direction": "occurrence",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "china",
        "china taiwan military",
        "geopolitics",
        "military",
        "taiwan"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    }
  ],
  "resolution_log": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-DFQ3FZJR24",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "outcome": "NO",
      "resolved_at": "2026-06-30T00:00:00Z",
      "final_price": 0,
      "recorded_at": "2026-07-06",
      "source": "platform_api",
      "source_ref": null
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  "_provenance": {
    "source": "clearmarket.fyi",
    "ref": "CM-EVT-88MHYHB1X3",
    "terms": "Attribution required. clearmarket.fyi"
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}