{
  "_notice": {
    "type": "free_key_offer",
    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
  },
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-H0ZDZ1MCS2",
  "slug": "will-china-unban-bitcoin-by-2027",
  "question": "Will China unban Bitcoin by 2027?",
  "category": "crypto",
  "event_type": "BINARY",
  "ladder_distribution": null,
  "tags": [
    "crypto",
    "china-crypto-policy",
    "bitcoin-regulation",
    "geopolitical-economics",
    "2026-resolution",
    "regulatory-reversal"
  ],
  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "This market tracks whether the People's Republic of China will formally legalize Bitcoin purchases before end of 2026. A single Polymarket binary resolves via Polymarket's UMA Optimistic Oracle against official PRC government announcements. No competing platform structures this event as a rate level or margin, so no cross-platform divergence exists. Resolution depends entirely on verifiable official PRC announcements, leaving interpretive ambiguity risk with the UMA protocol.",
  "venues_covered": [
    "polymarket"
  ],
  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-2892FF2K39",
  "current_primary_mark": {
    "last_price": 0.026,
    "implied_probability": 0.026
  },
  "created_at": "2026-07-06T00:30:45.836226+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-07-06T00:30:45.836226+00:00",
  "markets": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-2892FF2K39",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-H0ZDZ1MCS2",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x4bd2d6744cfb40bd33520963069947643140e9facccec0b44d1e61944aa96997",
      "question": "Will China unban Bitcoin by 2027?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the government of the People's Republic of China (PRC) explicitly announces that Chinese citizens will be allowed to legally buy Bitcoin with yuan (renminbi) from inside China by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nFor this market to resolve to \"Yes\" it is only necessary that the PRC announces this change will take place. Whether it actually does will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the PRC, however a consensus of cred",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "Official announcements from the People's Republic of China government regarding legalization of Bitcoin purchases with yuan by Chinese citizens on or before December 31, 2026.",
      "close_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the government of the People's Republic of China (PRC) explicitly announces that Chinese citizens will be allowed to legally buy Bitcoin with yuan (renminbi) from inside China by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nFor this market to resolve to \"Yes\" it is only necessary that the PRC announces this change will take place. Whether it actually does will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the PRC, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": null,
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "official information from the PRC",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "a consensus of credible reporting",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": null,
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_placeholder",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 24,
        "caps": [
          "multi_source_no_conflict_rule",
          "adversarial_ground_truth",
          "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 7
      },
      "last_price": 0.026,
      "implied_probability": 0.026,
      "volume_24h_usd": 1090.905658,
      "volume_total_usd": 1011832.9894850086,
      "settlement_style": "occurrence",
      "direction": "occurrence",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": "CMX-A6D13FE8F1",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "bitcoin",
        "china",
        "china bitcoin ban",
        "policy",
        "regulation"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    }
  ],
  "resolution_log": [],
  "_provenance": {
    "source": "clearmarket.fyi",
    "ref": "CM-EVT-H0ZDZ1MCS2",
    "terms": "Attribution required. clearmarket.fyi"
  }
}