{
  "_notice": {
    "type": "free_key_offer",
    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
  },
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-K81GGTVCH1",
  "slug": "will-claude-go-down-on-days-in-july-20260630150848708",
  "question": "Will Claude go down on more than X days in July?",
  "category": "technology",
  "event_type": "BINARY",
  "ladder_distribution": null,
  "tags": [
    "technology",
    "ai",
    "claude",
    "uptime",
    "service-availability",
    "tech"
  ],
  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "These markets track Claude.ai service disruptions in July 2026, measured by non-green daily status boxes on Anthropic's status page. Five mutually exclusive Polymarket tiers span 0-2 through 12-plus affected days, forming a complete discrete distribution. All five resolve via Polymarket's UMA Optimistic Oracle against the same status-page source. The resolve timestamp of July 10, 2026 precedes month-end, meaning mid-month status data determines settlement before July concludes.",
  "venues_covered": [
    "polymarket"
  ],
  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-BR6YMQ2V74",
  "current_primary_mark": {
    "last_price": 0.184,
    "implied_probability": 0.184
  },
  "created_at": "2026-07-23T21:11:14.426158+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-07-23T21:11:14.426158+00:00",
  "markets": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-7Q0ZB3N675",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-K81GGTVCH1",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x7baca8ceee52b22f916f7804d8be0cf68c5c85bd8bb6526cca738eb3eafb0815",
      "question": "Will Claude go down 0-2 times in July?",
      "description": "This market will resolve according to the number of days in July 2026 during which Claude (claude.ai) experiences any downtime.\n\nClaude will be considered to have experienced downtime on a given day if the Claude Status historical uptime page for the claude.ai component (https://status.claude.com/uptime/) displays that day’s status box as any color other than green once the day’s status box is finalized. Daily status boxes for Claude components other than claude.ai will not impact this market’s resolution.\n\nA day will be considered finalized once the following day’s status box has a display co",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "0-2: Claude.ai's status page displays non-green daily status boxes for a specified number of days in July 2026, determined via UMA Optimistic Oracle by July 31, 2026.",
      "close_at": "2026-07-31T23:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-07-10T06:52:10Z",
      "status": "closed",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve according to the number of days in July 2026 during which Claude (claude.ai) experiences any downtime.\n\nClaude will be considered to have experienced downtime on a given day if the Claude Status historical uptime page for the claude.ai component (https://status.claude.com/uptime/) displays that day’s status box as any color other than green once the day’s status box is finalized. Daily status boxes for Claude components other than claude.ai will not impact this market’s resolution.\n\nA day will be considered finalized once the following day’s status box has a display color other than the grey color used for days that have not yet begun.\n\nThis market will resolve once the final day of the specified month is finalized. If the final day of the specified month has not been finalized by the end of the 7th calendar date after the specified month (ET), this market will resolve based on the days that have been finalized up to that time.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be the Claude Status historical uptime page for the claude.ai component (https://status.claude.com/uptime/).",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://status.claude.com/uptime/",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "status.claude.com",
            "url": "https://status.claude.com/uptime/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "https://status.claude.com/uptime/",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "Claude Status historical uptime page for the claude.ai component (https://status.claude.com/uptime/)",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "status.claude.com",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 87,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.006,
      "implied_probability": 0.006,
      "volume_24h_usd": null,
      "volume_total_usd": 8045.691306000002,
      "settlement_style": "terminal",
      "direction": "below",
      "threshold": 2,
      "question_id": "CMX-095D7BD3F8",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "availability",
        "claude",
        "claude downtime events",
        "outage"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-021JGD2RQ2",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-K81GGTVCH1",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0xe5d4fe1d6aacf881968455574854b995a0c2ac766ead9148b95a5ae2a3d1ce40",
      "question": "Will Claude go down 3-5 times in July?",
      "description": "This market will resolve according to the number of days in July 2026 during which Claude (claude.ai) experiences any downtime.\n\nClaude will be considered to have experienced downtime on a given day if the Claude Status historical uptime page for the claude.ai component (https://status.claude.com/uptime/) displays that day’s status box as any color other than green once the day’s status box is finalized. Daily status boxes for Claude components other than claude.ai will not impact this market’s resolution.\n\nA day will be considered finalized once the following day’s status box has a display co",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "3-5: Claude.ai's status page displays non-green daily status boxes for a specified number of days in July 2026, determined via UMA Optimistic Oracle by July 31, 2026.",
      "close_at": "2026-07-31T23:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-07-18T02:04:12Z",
      "status": "closed",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve according to the number of days in July 2026 during which Claude (claude.ai) experiences any downtime.\n\nClaude will be considered to have experienced downtime on a given day if the Claude Status historical uptime page for the claude.ai component (https://status.claude.com/uptime/) displays that day’s status box as any color other than green once the day’s status box is finalized. Daily status boxes for Claude components other than claude.ai will not impact this market’s resolution.\n\nA day will be considered finalized once the following day’s status box has a display color other than the grey color used for days that have not yet begun.\n\nThis market will resolve once the final day of the specified month is finalized. If the final day of the specified month has not been finalized by the end of the 7th calendar date after the specified month (ET), this market will resolve based on the days that have been finalized up to that time.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be the Claude Status historical uptime page for the claude.ai component (https://status.claude.com/uptime/).",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://status.claude.com/uptime/",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "status.claude.com",
            "url": "https://status.claude.com/uptime/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "https://status.claude.com/uptime/",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "Claude Status historical uptime page for the claude.ai component (https://status.claude.com/uptime/)",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "status.claude.com",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 87,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.011,
      "implied_probability": 0.011,
      "volume_24h_usd": null,
      "volume_total_usd": 11785.977912000004,
      "settlement_style": "terminal",
      "direction": "below",
      "threshold": 5,
      "question_id": "CMX-E2E292C212",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "availability",
        "claude",
        "claude downtime events",
        "outage"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-BR6YMQ2V74",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-K81GGTVCH1",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0xc3c9d1fcc61d47db66f607a8182a2a06302177f92ff28efeced88b1337fb1294",
      "question": "Will Claude go down 6-8 times in July?",
      "description": "This market will resolve according to the number of days in July 2026 during which Claude (claude.ai) experiences any downtime.\n\nClaude will be considered to have experienced downtime on a given day if the Claude Status historical uptime page for the claude.ai component (https://status.claude.com/uptime/) displays that day’s status box as any color other than green once the day’s status box is finalized. Daily status boxes for Claude components other than claude.ai will not impact this market’s resolution.\n\nA day will be considered finalized once the following day’s status box has a display co",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "6-8: Claude.ai's status page displays non-green daily status boxes for a specified number of days in July 2026, determined via UMA Optimistic Oracle by July 31, 2026.",
      "close_at": "2026-07-31T23:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-07-31T23:59:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve according to the number of days in July 2026 during which Claude (claude.ai) experiences any downtime.\n\nClaude will be considered to have experienced downtime on a given day if the Claude Status historical uptime page for the claude.ai component (https://status.claude.com/uptime/) displays that day’s status box as any color other than green once the day’s status box is finalized. Daily status boxes for Claude components other than claude.ai will not impact this market’s resolution.\n\nA day will be considered finalized once the following day’s status box has a display color other than the grey color used for days that have not yet begun.\n\nThis market will resolve once the final day of the specified month is finalized. If the final day of the specified month has not been finalized by the end of the 7th calendar date after the specified month (ET), this market will resolve based on the days that have been finalized up to that time.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be the Claude Status historical uptime page for the claude.ai component (https://status.claude.com/uptime/).",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://status.claude.com/uptime/",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "status.claude.com",
            "url": "https://status.claude.com/uptime/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "https://status.claude.com/uptime/",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "Claude Status historical uptime page for the claude.ai component (https://status.claude.com/uptime/)",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "status.claude.com",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 87,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.184,
      "implied_probability": 0.184,
      "volume_24h_usd": 1352.633963,
      "volume_total_usd": 16773.922927000003,
      "settlement_style": "terminal",
      "direction": "below",
      "threshold": 8,
      "question_id": "CMX-A36C93B0DC",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "availability",
        "claude",
        "claude downtime events",
        "outage"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-RF57F5D2H5",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-K81GGTVCH1",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x063a71de7eccdabdcad475d00d3844107daa2ca689966f227a8a2ab7a8dc5812",
      "question": "Will Claude go down 9-11 times in July?",
      "description": "This market will resolve according to the number of days in July 2026 during which Claude (claude.ai) experiences any downtime.\n\nClaude will be considered to have experienced downtime on a given day if the Claude Status historical uptime page for the claude.ai component (https://status.claude.com/uptime/) displays that day’s status box as any color other than green once the day’s status box is finalized. Daily status boxes for Claude components other than claude.ai will not impact this market’s resolution.\n\nA day will be considered finalized once the following day’s status box has a display co",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "9-11: Claude.ai's status page displays non-green daily status boxes for a specified number of days in July 2026, determined via UMA Optimistic Oracle by July 31, 2026.",
      "close_at": "2026-07-31T23:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-07-31T23:59:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve according to the number of days in July 2026 during which Claude (claude.ai) experiences any downtime.\n\nClaude will be considered to have experienced downtime on a given day if the Claude Status historical uptime page for the claude.ai component (https://status.claude.com/uptime/) displays that day’s status box as any color other than green once the day’s status box is finalized. Daily status boxes for Claude components other than claude.ai will not impact this market’s resolution.\n\nA day will be considered finalized once the following day’s status box has a display color other than the grey color used for days that have not yet begun.\n\nThis market will resolve once the final day of the specified month is finalized. If the final day of the specified month has not been finalized by the end of the 7th calendar date after the specified month (ET), this market will resolve based on the days that have been finalized up to that time.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be the Claude Status historical uptime page for the claude.ai component (https://status.claude.com/uptime/).",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://status.claude.com/uptime/",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "status.claude.com",
            "url": "https://status.claude.com/uptime/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "https://status.claude.com/uptime/",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "Claude Status historical uptime page for the claude.ai component (https://status.claude.com/uptime/)",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "status.claude.com",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 87,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.7,
      "implied_probability": 0.7,
      "volume_24h_usd": 408.91254200000003,
      "volume_total_usd": 14766.908410000002,
      "settlement_style": "terminal",
      "direction": "below",
      "threshold": 11,
      "question_id": "CMX-232CD28D14",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "availability",
        "claude",
        "claude downtime events",
        "outage"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-4K7NV71VD0",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-K81GGTVCH1",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x66c27eb67757b26d4ffabdd10e1cecf19a6abcfb0c763d7849369be4cac99500",
      "question": "Will Claude go down 12+ times in July?",
      "description": "This market will resolve according to the number of days in July 2026 during which Claude (claude.ai) experiences any downtime.\n\nClaude will be considered to have experienced downtime on a given day if the Claude Status historical uptime page for the claude.ai component (https://status.claude.com/uptime/) displays that day’s status box as any color other than green once the day’s status box is finalized. Daily status boxes for Claude components other than claude.ai will not impact this market’s resolution.\n\nA day will be considered finalized once the following day’s status box has a display co",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "12+: Claude.ai's status page displays non-green daily status boxes for a specified number of days in July 2026, determined via UMA Optimistic Oracle by July 31, 2026.",
      "close_at": "2026-07-31T23:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-07-31T23:59:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve according to the number of days in July 2026 during which Claude (claude.ai) experiences any downtime.\n\nClaude will be considered to have experienced downtime on a given day if the Claude Status historical uptime page for the claude.ai component (https://status.claude.com/uptime/) displays that day’s status box as any color other than green once the day’s status box is finalized. Daily status boxes for Claude components other than claude.ai will not impact this market’s resolution.\n\nA day will be considered finalized once the following day’s status box has a display color other than the grey color used for days that have not yet begun.\n\nThis market will resolve once the final day of the specified month is finalized. If the final day of the specified month has not been finalized by the end of the 7th calendar date after the specified month (ET), this market will resolve based on the days that have been finalized up to that time.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be the Claude Status historical uptime page for the claude.ai component (https://status.claude.com/uptime/).",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://status.claude.com/uptime/",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "status.claude.com",
            "url": "https://status.claude.com/uptime/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "https://status.claude.com/uptime/",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "Claude Status historical uptime page for the claude.ai component (https://status.claude.com/uptime/)",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "status.claude.com",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 87,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.084,
      "implied_probability": 0.084,
      "volume_24h_usd": null,
      "volume_total_usd": 6812.502367,
      "settlement_style": "terminal",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 12,
      "question_id": "CMX-E82E5F4BB8",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "availability",
        "claude",
        "claude downtime events",
        "outage"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    }
  ],
  "resolution_log": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-021JGD2RQ2",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "event_type": "status_change",
      "outcome": "closed",
      "resolved_at": "2026-07-18T02:04:12Z",
      "deadline_at": null,
      "occurred_basis": "venue_settlement",
      "final_price": null,
      "recorded_at": "2026-07-23",
      "source": "platform_api",
      "source_ref": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-7Q0ZB3N675",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "event_type": "status_change",
      "outcome": "closed",
      "resolved_at": "2026-07-10T06:52:10Z",
      "deadline_at": null,
      "occurred_basis": "venue_settlement",
      "final_price": null,
      "recorded_at": "2026-07-23",
      "source": "platform_api",
      "source_ref": null
    }
  ],
  "_provenance": {
    "source": "clearmarket.fyi",
    "ref": "CM-EVT-K81GGTVCH1",
    "terms": "Attribution required. clearmarket.fyi"
  }
}