{
  "_notice": {
    "type": "free_key_offer",
    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
  },
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-YX5BXJNX37",
  "slug": "will-claude-go-down-on-days-in-june",
  "question": "Will Claude go down on __ days in June?",
  "category": "technology",
  "event_type": "BINARY",
  "ladder_distribution": null,
  "tags": [
    "technology",
    "tech",
    "ai",
    "claude",
    "service-uptime",
    "incident-frequency"
  ],
  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "These markets track Claude.ai service interruptions in June 2026, measured by non-green status boxes on status.claude.com/uptime/. Five Polymarket contracts partition the outage count into discrete tiers: 0-2, 3-5, 6-8, 9-11, and 12 or more days. The tiers are mutually exclusive; only one resolves yes. Resolution occurs via Polymarket's UMA Optimistic Oracle against the Claude.ai status page as the authoritative source.",
  "venues_covered": [
    "polymarket"
  ],
  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-F6PW09MDD9",
  "current_primary_mark": {
    "last_price": 0,
    "implied_probability": 0
  },
  "created_at": "2026-07-06T00:30:45.836226+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-07-06T00:30:45.836226+00:00",
  "markets": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-K17SWMPT78",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-YX5BXJNX37",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x30a9af82265f79e4c1e484678aa39887717fe9ac7e510214f2fe26c19704c595",
      "question": "Will Claude go down 0-2 times in June?",
      "description": "This market will resolve according to the number of days in June 2026 during which Claude (claude.ai) experiences any downtime.\n\nClaude will be considered to have experienced downtime on a given day if the Claude Status historical uptime page for the claude.ai component (https://status.claude.com/uptime/) displays that day’s status box as any color other than green once the day’s status box is finalized. Daily status boxes for Claude components other than claude.ai will not impact this market’s resolution.\n\nA day will be considered finalized once the following day’s status box has a display co",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "0-2: Claude.ai's daily status page at status.claude.com/uptime/ will display non-green status boxes for a given number of days in June 2026, finalized by June 30, 2026.",
      "close_at": "2026-06-30T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-06-30T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "resolved",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve according to the number of days in June 2026 during which Claude (claude.ai) experiences any downtime.\n\nClaude will be considered to have experienced downtime on a given day if the Claude Status historical uptime page for the claude.ai component (https://status.claude.com/uptime/) displays that day’s status box as any color other than green once the day’s status box is finalized. Daily status boxes for Claude components other than claude.ai will not impact this market’s resolution.\n\nA day will be considered finalized once the following day’s status box has a display color other than the grey color used for days that have not yet begun.\n\nThis market will resolve once the final day of the specified month is finalized. If the final day of the specified month has not been finalized by the end of the 7th calendar date after the specified month (ET), this market will resolve based on the days that have been finalized up to that time.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be the Claude Status historical uptime page for the claude.ai component (https://status.claude.com/uptime/).",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://status.claude.com/uptime/",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "status.claude.com",
            "url": "https://status.claude.com/uptime/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "https://status.claude.com/uptime/",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "Claude Status historical uptime page for the claude.ai component (https://status.claude.com/uptime/)",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "https://status.claude.com/uptime/",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "B",
        "score": 69,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0,
      "implied_probability": 0,
      "volume_24h_usd": 979.77,
      "volume_total_usd": 3294.762917,
      "settlement_style": "terminal",
      "direction": "below",
      "threshold": 2,
      "question_id": "CMX-38B619AEE7",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "availability",
        "claude",
        "claude downtime days",
        "outage"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-XQ0WBWQBZ6",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-YX5BXJNX37",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0xb56826627c8ff3358232e48476e3cd23f1b872a8abbb6fb466192814efc71885",
      "question": "Will Claude go down 6-8 times in June?",
      "description": "This market will resolve according to the number of days in June 2026 during which Claude (claude.ai) experiences any downtime.\n\nClaude will be considered to have experienced downtime on a given day if the Claude Status historical uptime page for the claude.ai component (https://status.claude.com/uptime/) displays that day’s status box as any color other than green once the day’s status box is finalized. Daily status boxes for Claude components other than claude.ai will not impact this market’s resolution.\n\nA day will be considered finalized once the following day’s status box has a display co",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "6-8: Claude.ai's daily status page at status.claude.com/uptime/ will display non-green status boxes for a given number of days in June 2026, finalized by June 30, 2026.",
      "close_at": "2026-06-30T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-06-30T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "resolved",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve according to the number of days in June 2026 during which Claude (claude.ai) experiences any downtime.\n\nClaude will be considered to have experienced downtime on a given day if the Claude Status historical uptime page for the claude.ai component (https://status.claude.com/uptime/) displays that day’s status box as any color other than green once the day’s status box is finalized. Daily status boxes for Claude components other than claude.ai will not impact this market’s resolution.\n\nA day will be considered finalized once the following day’s status box has a display color other than the grey color used for days that have not yet begun.\n\nThis market will resolve once the final day of the specified month is finalized. If the final day of the specified month has not been finalized by the end of the 7th calendar date after the specified month (ET), this market will resolve based on the days that have been finalized up to that time.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be the Claude Status historical uptime page for the claude.ai component (https://status.claude.com/uptime/).",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://status.claude.com/uptime/",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "status.claude.com",
            "url": "https://status.claude.com/uptime/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "https://status.claude.com/uptime/",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "Claude Status historical uptime page for the claude.ai component (https://status.claude.com/uptime/)",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "https://status.claude.com/uptime/",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "B",
        "score": 69,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 1,
      "implied_probability": 1,
      "volume_24h_usd": 84.35,
      "volume_total_usd": 1408.4471540000002,
      "settlement_style": "terminal",
      "direction": "between",
      "threshold": 8,
      "question_id": "CMX-40A2FA1BB1",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "availability",
        "claude",
        "claude downtime days",
        "outage"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-72P6JV8XR7",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-YX5BXJNX37",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x66c1441f815e1c8dcb858d0083ee9618664861b03f1771d619e55f2a24c02da1",
      "question": "Will Claude go down 12+ times in June?",
      "description": "This market will resolve according to the number of days in June 2026 during which Claude (claude.ai) experiences any downtime.\n\nClaude will be considered to have experienced downtime on a given day if the Claude Status historical uptime page for the claude.ai component (https://status.claude.com/uptime/) displays that day’s status box as any color other than green once the day’s status box is finalized. Daily status boxes for Claude components other than claude.ai will not impact this market’s resolution.\n\nA day will be considered finalized once the following day’s status box has a display co",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "12+: Claude.ai's daily status page at status.claude.com/uptime/ will display non-green status boxes for a given number of days in June 2026, finalized by June 30, 2026.",
      "close_at": "2026-06-30T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-06-30T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "resolved",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve according to the number of days in June 2026 during which Claude (claude.ai) experiences any downtime.\n\nClaude will be considered to have experienced downtime on a given day if the Claude Status historical uptime page for the claude.ai component (https://status.claude.com/uptime/) displays that day’s status box as any color other than green once the day’s status box is finalized. Daily status boxes for Claude components other than claude.ai will not impact this market’s resolution.\n\nA day will be considered finalized once the following day’s status box has a display color other than the grey color used for days that have not yet begun.\n\nThis market will resolve once the final day of the specified month is finalized. If the final day of the specified month has not been finalized by the end of the 7th calendar date after the specified month (ET), this market will resolve based on the days that have been finalized up to that time.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be the Claude Status historical uptime page for the claude.ai component (https://status.claude.com/uptime/).",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://status.claude.com/uptime/",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "status.claude.com",
            "url": "https://status.claude.com/uptime/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "https://status.claude.com/uptime/",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "Claude Status historical uptime page for the claude.ai component (https://status.claude.com/uptime/)",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "https://status.claude.com/uptime/",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "B",
        "score": 69,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0,
      "implied_probability": 0,
      "volume_24h_usd": 113.05,
      "volume_total_usd": 2017.6878460000003,
      "settlement_style": "terminal",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 12,
      "question_id": "CMX-61E9A7191E",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "availability",
        "claude",
        "claude downtime days",
        "outage"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-F6PW09MDD9",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-YX5BXJNX37",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0xf67a8febcce781089ed0d7ae2b055e841aedea72eeaae070a83e4565072b3dc4",
      "question": "Will Claude go down 3-5 times in June?",
      "description": "This market will resolve according to the number of days in June 2026 during which Claude (claude.ai) experiences any downtime.\n\nClaude will be considered to have experienced downtime on a given day if the Claude Status historical uptime page for the claude.ai component (https://status.claude.com/uptime/) displays that day’s status box as any color other than green once the day’s status box is finalized. Daily status boxes for Claude components other than claude.ai will not impact this market’s resolution.\n\nA day will be considered finalized once the following day’s status box has a display co",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "3-5: Claude.ai's daily status page at status.claude.com/uptime/ will display non-green status boxes for a given number of days in June 2026, finalized by June 30, 2026.",
      "close_at": "2026-06-30T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-06-30T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "resolved",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve according to the number of days in June 2026 during which Claude (claude.ai) experiences any downtime.\n\nClaude will be considered to have experienced downtime on a given day if the Claude Status historical uptime page for the claude.ai component (https://status.claude.com/uptime/) displays that day’s status box as any color other than green once the day’s status box is finalized. Daily status boxes for Claude components other than claude.ai will not impact this market’s resolution.\n\nA day will be considered finalized once the following day’s status box has a display color other than the grey color used for days that have not yet begun.\n\nThis market will resolve once the final day of the specified month is finalized. If the final day of the specified month has not been finalized by the end of the 7th calendar date after the specified month (ET), this market will resolve based on the days that have been finalized up to that time.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be the Claude Status historical uptime page for the claude.ai component (https://status.claude.com/uptime/).",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://status.claude.com/uptime/",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "status.claude.com",
            "url": "https://status.claude.com/uptime/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "https://status.claude.com/uptime/",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "Claude Status historical uptime page for the claude.ai component (https://status.claude.com/uptime/)",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "https://status.claude.com/uptime/",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "B",
        "score": 69,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0,
      "implied_probability": 0,
      "volume_24h_usd": 297.408438,
      "volume_total_usd": 4217.262282,
      "settlement_style": "terminal",
      "direction": "between",
      "threshold": 5,
      "question_id": "CMX-40A2FA1BB1",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "availability",
        "claude",
        "claude downtime days",
        "outage"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-N6CHCKZ6R9",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-YX5BXJNX37",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x8eba2357a5806605614b41fe4e3fdf62a3fc8a74d0966f640d6d7ccbaefa51c8",
      "question": "Will Claude go down 9-11 times in June?",
      "description": "This market will resolve according to the number of days in June 2026 during which Claude (claude.ai) experiences any downtime.\n\nClaude will be considered to have experienced downtime on a given day if the Claude Status historical uptime page for the claude.ai component (https://status.claude.com/uptime/) displays that day’s status box as any color other than green once the day’s status box is finalized. Daily status boxes for Claude components other than claude.ai will not impact this market’s resolution.\n\nA day will be considered finalized once the following day’s status box has a display co",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "9-11: Claude.ai's daily status page at status.claude.com/uptime/ will display non-green status boxes for a given number of days in June 2026, finalized by June 30, 2026.",
      "close_at": "2026-06-30T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-06-30T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "resolved",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve according to the number of days in June 2026 during which Claude (claude.ai) experiences any downtime.\n\nClaude will be considered to have experienced downtime on a given day if the Claude Status historical uptime page for the claude.ai component (https://status.claude.com/uptime/) displays that day’s status box as any color other than green once the day’s status box is finalized. Daily status boxes for Claude components other than claude.ai will not impact this market’s resolution.\n\nA day will be considered finalized once the following day’s status box has a display color other than the grey color used for days that have not yet begun.\n\nThis market will resolve once the final day of the specified month is finalized. If the final day of the specified month has not been finalized by the end of the 7th calendar date after the specified month (ET), this market will resolve based on the days that have been finalized up to that time.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be the Claude Status historical uptime page for the claude.ai component (https://status.claude.com/uptime/).",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://status.claude.com/uptime/",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "status.claude.com",
            "url": "https://status.claude.com/uptime/",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "https://status.claude.com/uptime/",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "Claude Status historical uptime page for the claude.ai component (https://status.claude.com/uptime/)",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "https://status.claude.com/uptime/",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "B",
        "score": 69,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0,
      "implied_probability": 0,
      "volume_24h_usd": 470.46466499999997,
      "volume_total_usd": 1735.0199479999999,
      "settlement_style": "terminal",
      "direction": "between",
      "threshold": 11,
      "question_id": "CMX-F5112F8709",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "availability",
        "claude",
        "claude downtime days",
        "outage"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    }
  ],
  "resolution_log": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-XQ0WBWQBZ6",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "event_type": "resolved",
      "outcome": "YES",
      "resolved_at": "2026-07-01T03:33:19Z",
      "deadline_at": null,
      "occurred_basis": "venue_settlement",
      "final_price": 1,
      "recorded_at": "2026-07-06",
      "source": "platform_api",
      "source_ref": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-72P6JV8XR7",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "event_type": "resolved",
      "outcome": "NO",
      "resolved_at": "2026-07-01T03:00:37Z",
      "deadline_at": null,
      "occurred_basis": "venue_settlement",
      "final_price": 0,
      "recorded_at": "2026-07-06",
      "source": "platform_api",
      "source_ref": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-N6CHCKZ6R9",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "event_type": "resolved",
      "outcome": "NO",
      "resolved_at": "2026-07-01T02:06:08Z",
      "deadline_at": null,
      "occurred_basis": "venue_settlement",
      "final_price": 0,
      "recorded_at": "2026-07-06",
      "source": "platform_api",
      "source_ref": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-F6PW09MDD9",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "event_type": "resolved",
      "outcome": "NO",
      "resolved_at": "2026-06-23T16:29:19Z",
      "deadline_at": null,
      "occurred_basis": "venue_settlement",
      "final_price": 0,
      "recorded_at": "2026-07-06",
      "source": "platform_api",
      "source_ref": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-K17SWMPT78",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "event_type": "resolved",
      "outcome": "NO",
      "resolved_at": "2026-06-12T09:27:27Z",
      "deadline_at": null,
      "occurred_basis": "venue_settlement",
      "final_price": 0,
      "recorded_at": "2026-07-23",
      "source": "platform_api",
      "source_ref": null
    }
  ],
  "_provenance": {
    "source": "clearmarket.fyi",
    "ref": "CM-EVT-YX5BXJNX37",
    "terms": "Attribution required. clearmarket.fyi"
  }
}