{
  "_notice": {
    "type": "free_key_offer",
    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
  },
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-FH81JD30Q0",
  "slug": "will-curvance-launch-a-token-by",
  "question": "Will Curvance launch a token by 2026?",
  "category": "crypto",
  "event_type": "BINARY",
  "ladder_distribution": null,
  "tags": [
    "crypto",
    "token-launch",
    "curvance",
    "defi",
    "2026"
  ],
  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "These markets track whether Curvance, a DeFi lending protocol, will launch a native token by each successive quarterly deadline. The seven Polymarket contracts form an implied probability term structure, with each later deadline trading at a higher yes probability than the prior. A launch confirmed by any earlier deadline logically resolves all subsequent contracts yes. Resolution follows Polymarket's UMA Optimistic Oracle across all seven contracts.",
  "venues_covered": [
    "polymarket"
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  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-QS1HZVDRG7",
  "current_primary_mark": {
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    "implied_probability": 0.65,
    "as_of": null
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  "created_at": "2026-08-04T20:03:51.865287+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-08-04T20:03:51.865287+00:00",
  "markets": [
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      "market_id": "CM-MKT-SNZ4L512Q6",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-FH81JD30Q0",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0xf88c97756d456662b6dfaf6564af7c2f5811769ecc08ef9661e5ab86dc8fbddc",
      "question": "Will Curvance launch a token by June 30, 2026?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Curvance officially launches a token by 11:59 PM ET on the date specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nOnly an official token launched by Curvance will qualify. Stablecoins, memecoins, LSTs and synthetic tokens will not count.\n\nThe token must be actively and publicly tradable. Announcements alone do not qualify.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be information from Curvance (https://x.com/curvance), however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "June 30, 2026: Resolution per the event's stated source and mechanism (subject supplied per market).",
      "close_at": "2026-07-01T03:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-07-01T10:01:53Z",
      "status": "closed",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Curvance officially launches a token by 11:59 PM ET on the date specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nOnly an official token launched by Curvance will qualify. Stablecoins, memecoins, LSTs and synthetic tokens will not count.\n\nThe token must be actively and publicly tradable. Announcements alone do not qualify.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be information from Curvance (https://x.com/curvance), however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": "https://x.com/curvance",
        "sources": [
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            "url": "https://x.com/curvance",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
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          {
            "name": "information from Curvance (https://x.com/curvance)",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
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      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
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        "caps": [
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        "applied_factors": 7
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      "last_price": 0.005,
      "implied_probability": 0.005,
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      "volume_24h_usd": null,
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      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "occurrence",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": "CMX-44A7ECF994",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
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        "token"
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    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-KMGFY88NV4",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-FH81JD30Q0",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x0ea317a9dd7dfd267232433fb53e33db6330dcfeaae31e1027cf3c3f4dc4b0e9",
      "question": "Will Curvance launch a token by September 30, 2026?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Curvance officially launches a token by 11:59 PM ET on the date specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nOnly an official token launched by Curvance will qualify. Stablecoins, memecoins, LSTs and synthetic tokens will not count.\n\nThe token must be actively and publicly tradable. Announcements alone do not qualify.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be information from Curvance (https://x.com/curvance), however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "September 30, 2026: Resolution per the event's stated source and mechanism (subject supplied per market).",
      "close_at": "2026-10-01T03:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-10-01T03:59:00Z",
      "status": "closed",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Curvance officially launches a token by 11:59 PM ET on the date specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nOnly an official token launched by Curvance will qualify. Stablecoins, memecoins, LSTs and synthetic tokens will not count.\n\nThe token must be actively and publicly tradable. Announcements alone do not qualify.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be information from Curvance (https://x.com/curvance), however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
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        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
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      "question_id": "CMX-E6DAA64A64",
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      "tags": [
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    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-5L1NYF3KN6",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-FH81JD30Q0",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0xe17ec48f01f4196c66a49641bb57d83016f9f7427fe3974afa402bb4c2f27fc7",
      "question": "Will Curvance launch a token by December 31, 2026?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Curvance officially launches a token by 11:59 PM ET on the date specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nOnly an official token launched by Curvance will qualify. Stablecoins, memecoins, LSTs and synthetic tokens will not count.\n\nThe token must be actively and publicly tradable. Announcements alone do not qualify.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be information from Curvance (https://x.com/curvance), however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "December 31, 2026: Resolution per the event's stated source and mechanism (subject supplied per market).",
      "close_at": "2027-01-01T04:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-01-01T04:59:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Curvance officially launches a token by 11:59 PM ET on the date specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nOnly an official token launched by Curvance will qualify. Stablecoins, memecoins, LSTs and synthetic tokens will not count.\n\nThe token must be actively and publicly tradable. Announcements alone do not qualify.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be information from Curvance (https://x.com/curvance), however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": "https://x.com/curvance",
        "sources": [
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            "provenance": "platform_api"
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          {
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            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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      "rcg": {
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        "score": 37,
        "caps": [
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        ],
        "applied_factors": 7
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      "last_price": 0.17,
      "implied_probability": 0.17,
      "price_as_of": null,
      "volume_24h_usd": null,
      "volume_total_usd": 11385.912242,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "occurrence",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": "CMX-B84D3FF63C",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "curvance",
        "launch",
        "token"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-QY509ZHP67",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-FH81JD30Q0",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0xd32f72b71da456353f5c91d600dabd7945da822b86c5240f553b52db5a4d192e",
      "question": "Will Curvance launch a token by March 31, 2027?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Curvance officially launches a token by 11:59 PM ET on the date specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nOnly an official token launched by Curvance will qualify. Stablecoins, memecoins, LSTs and synthetic tokens will not count.\n\nThe token must be actively and publicly tradable. Announcements alone do not qualify.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be information from Curvance (https://x.com/curvance), however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "March 31, 2027: Resolution per the event's stated source and mechanism (subject supplied per market).",
      "close_at": "2027-04-01T03:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-04-01T03:59:00Z",
      "status": "closed",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Curvance officially launches a token by 11:59 PM ET on the date specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nOnly an official token launched by Curvance will qualify. Stablecoins, memecoins, LSTs and synthetic tokens will not count.\n\nThe token must be actively and publicly tradable. Announcements alone do not qualify.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be information from Curvance (https://x.com/curvance), however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": "https://x.com/curvance",
        "sources": [
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            "url": "https://x.com/curvance",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "information from Curvance (https://x.com/curvance)",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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        ],
        "source_of_record": null,
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      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 37,
        "caps": [
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        "applied_factors": 7
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      "last_price": null,
      "implied_probability": null,
      "price_as_of": null,
      "volume_24h_usd": null,
      "volume_total_usd": null,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "occurrence",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": "CMX-D2380C5F0F",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
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        "token"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-QS1HZVDRG7",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-FH81JD30Q0",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0xebcf674ad75e775c4ed8e51afe5911b5fac967db19b0dac8fe761d8b1d62637a",
      "question": "Will Curvance launch a token by June 30, 2027?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Curvance officially launches a token by 11:59 PM ET on the date specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nOnly an official token launched by Curvance will qualify. Stablecoins, memecoins, LSTs and synthetic tokens will not count.\n\nThe token must be actively and publicly tradable. Announcements alone do not qualify.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be information from Curvance (https://x.com/curvance), however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "June 30, 2027: Resolution per the event's stated source and mechanism (subject supplied per market).",
      "close_at": "2027-07-01T03:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-07-01T03:59:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Curvance officially launches a token by 11:59 PM ET on the date specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nOnly an official token launched by Curvance will qualify. Stablecoins, memecoins, LSTs and synthetic tokens will not count.\n\nThe token must be actively and publicly tradable. Announcements alone do not qualify.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be information from Curvance (https://x.com/curvance), however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
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      "last_price": 0.65,
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      "question_id": "CMX-C17912E6D2",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
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    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-Z1MGS16WR5",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-FH81JD30Q0",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x41ac471900e1e5c15dc9d1907dae492718ab88e830ec6d4d3975a0e20494fb92",
      "question": "Will Curvance launch a token by September 30, 2027?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Curvance officially launches a token by 11:59 PM ET on the date specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nOnly an official token launched by Curvance will qualify. Stablecoins, memecoins, LSTs and synthetic tokens will not count.\n\nThe token must be actively and publicly tradable. Announcements alone do not qualify.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be information from Curvance (https://x.com/curvance), however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "September 30, 2027: Resolution per the event's stated source and mechanism (subject supplied per market).",
      "close_at": "2027-10-01T03:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-10-01T03:59:00Z",
      "status": "closed",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Curvance officially launches a token by 11:59 PM ET on the date specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nOnly an official token launched by Curvance will qualify. Stablecoins, memecoins, LSTs and synthetic tokens will not count.\n\nThe token must be actively and publicly tradable. Announcements alone do not qualify.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be information from Curvance (https://x.com/curvance), however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.",
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        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": "https://x.com/curvance",
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      "question_id": "CMX-20085E125F",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "curvance",
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    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-RSJW49Y3F8",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-FH81JD30Q0",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x4b527f4291ebebee4a6579b906b8fff39b4209c9ed1950dbca5213674350f952",
      "question": "Will Curvance launch a token by December 31, 2027?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Curvance officially launches a token by 11:59 PM ET on the date specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nOnly an official token launched by Curvance will qualify. Stablecoins, memecoins, LSTs and synthetic tokens will not count.\n\nThe token must be actively and publicly tradable. Announcements alone do not qualify.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be information from Curvance (https://x.com/curvance), however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "December 31, 2027: Resolution per the event's stated source and mechanism (subject supplied per market).",
      "close_at": "2028-01-01T04:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2028-01-01T04:59:00Z",
      "status": "closed",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Curvance officially launches a token by 11:59 PM ET on the date specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nOnly an official token launched by Curvance will qualify. Stablecoins, memecoins, LSTs and synthetic tokens will not count.\n\nThe token must be actively and publicly tradable. Announcements alone do not qualify.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be information from Curvance (https://x.com/curvance), however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
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        "source_citation": "https://x.com/curvance",
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        "caps": [
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        "applied_factors": 7
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      "volume_24h_usd": null,
      "volume_total_usd": null,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "occurrence",
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