{
  "_notice": {
    "type": "free_key_offer",
    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
  },
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-HM4KZN3DX8",
  "slug": "will-el-salvador-hold-1b-of-btc-by-by",
  "question": "Will El Salvador hold $1 billion or more of Bitcoin by the settlement date?",
  "category": "crypto",
  "event_type": "BINARY",
  "ladder_distribution": null,
  "tags": [
    "crypto",
    "bitcoin",
    "el-salvador",
    "macro-btc",
    "2025"
  ],
  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "These markets track whether El Salvador's government bitcoin holdings reach or exceed $1 billion in value. Three sequential deadlines are priced: September 30, 2025, December 31, 2025, and December 31, 2026. All three resolve via Polymarket's UMA Optimistic Oracle, using Arkham Intel as the authoritative on-chain tracker. The September 30, 2025 market resolved at 2025-10-01T06:30:43Z; the remaining two deadlines remain open.",
  "venues_covered": [
    "polymarket"
  ],
  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-DDLB7NSQF8",
  "current_primary_mark": {
    "last_price": 1,
    "implied_probability": 1
  },
  "created_at": "2026-07-06T00:30:45.836226+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-07-06T00:30:45.836226+00:00",
  "markets": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-Y3LJ0T33Z7",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-HM4KZN3DX8",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x122851eaadc94c8f9193b3a03739ad17fe62eaa499705c7e846f9d9411841564",
      "question": "Will El Salvador hold $1b+ of BTC by September 30? ",
      "description": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if the bitcoin holdings officially owned by the Republic of the El Salvador government reaches or surpasses a value of $1b at any point by September 30, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nThe primary resolutions source for this market will be the ARKHAM INTEL tracker (see: https://intel.arkm.com/explorer/entity/el-salvador). Any temporary glitches or errors in the tracker will not be considered. If the tracker becomes permanently unavailable another credible source may be used. Official announcements form the government of El Salv",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "September 30: The named government's bitcoin holdings via Arkham Intel tracker must reach or exceed $1 billion in value by January 1, 2026, 8:21 AM UTC.",
      "close_at": "2025-09-30T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2025-10-01T06:30:43Z",
      "status": "closed",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if the bitcoin holdings officially owned by the Republic of the El Salvador government reaches or surpasses a value of $1b at any point by September 30, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nThe primary resolutions source for this market will be the ARKHAM INTEL tracker (see: https://intel.arkm.com/explorer/entity/el-salvador). Any temporary glitches or errors in the tracker will not be considered. If the tracker becomes permanently unavailable another credible source may be used. Official announcements form the government of El Salvador confirming their bitcoin holdings have reached or surpassed $1b in value will also qualify. \n",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://intel.arkm.com/explorer/entity/el-salvador",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "intel.arkm.com",
            "url": "https://intel.arkm.com/explorer/entity/el-salvador",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "ARKHAM INTEL tracker",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "Official announcements form the government of El Salvador",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "ARKHAM INTEL tracker",
        "source_mechanism": "precedence",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "B",
        "score": 74,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 7
      },
      "last_price": 1,
      "implied_probability": 1,
      "volume_24h_usd": null,
      "volume_total_usd": 14323.659323,
      "settlement_style": "terminal",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 1000000000,
      "question_id": "CMX-4EE3F39E9B",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "bitcoin",
        "btc",
        "el-salvador"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-DDLB7NSQF8",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-HM4KZN3DX8",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x760d0b414a5a1db4db13c48585e0a73b8a4eb08b050983c023efc01dbb2c5fa3",
      "question": "Will El Salvador hold $1b+ of BTC by December 31? ",
      "description": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if the bitcoin holdings officially owned by the Republic of the El Salvador government reaches or surpasses a value of $1b at any point by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nThe primary resolutions source for this market will be the ARKHAM INTEL tracker (see: https://intel.arkm.com/explorer/entity/el-salvador). Any temporary glitches or errors in the tracker will not be considered. If the tracker becomes permanently unavailable another credible source may be used. Official announcements form the government of El Salva",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "December 31: The named government's bitcoin holdings via Arkham Intel tracker must reach or exceed $1 billion in value by January 1, 2026, 8:21 AM UTC.",
      "close_at": "2025-09-30T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-01-01T08:21:51Z",
      "status": "closed",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if the bitcoin holdings officially owned by the Republic of the El Salvador government reaches or surpasses a value of $1b at any point by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nThe primary resolutions source for this market will be the ARKHAM INTEL tracker (see: https://intel.arkm.com/explorer/entity/el-salvador). Any temporary glitches or errors in the tracker will not be considered. If the tracker becomes permanently unavailable another credible source may be used. Official announcements form the government of El Salvador confirming their bitcoin holdings have reached or surpassed $1b in value will also qualify. \n",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://intel.arkm.com/explorer/entity/el-salvador",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "intel.arkm.com",
            "url": "https://intel.arkm.com/explorer/entity/el-salvador",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
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          {
            "name": "ARKHAM INTEL tracker",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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          {
            "name": "Official announcements form the government of El Salvador",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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        "source_of_record": "ARKHAM INTEL tracker",
        "source_mechanism": "precedence",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "B",
        "score": 74,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 7
      },
      "last_price": 1,
      "implied_probability": 1,
      "volume_24h_usd": null,
      "volume_total_usd": 60041.069024,
      "settlement_style": "terminal",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 1000000000,
      "question_id": "CMX-67056127EE",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "bitcoin",
        "btc",
        "el-salvador"
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      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-S4Q1VDZ627",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-HM4KZN3DX8",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x59cbdc98e569c31d3c33517131aa57a0a8d28e412df4a567d7df5b3ae9ec3de8",
      "question": "Will El Salvador hold $1b+ of BTC by December 31, 2026?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if the bitcoin holdings officially owned by the Republic of the El Salvador government reaches or surpasses a value of $1b at any point by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nThe primary resolutions source for this market will be the ARKHAM INTEL tracker (see: https://intel.arkm.com/explorer/entity/el-salvador). Any temporary glitches or errors in the tracker will not be considered. If the tracker becomes permanently unavailable another credible source may be used. Official announcements form the government of El Salva",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "December 31, 2026: The named government's bitcoin holdings via Arkham Intel tracker must reach or exceed $1 billion in value by January 1, 2026, 8:21 AM UTC.",
      "close_at": "2027-01-01T05:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-01-01T05:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if the bitcoin holdings officially owned by the Republic of the El Salvador government reaches or surpasses a value of $1b at any point by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nThe primary resolutions source for this market will be the ARKHAM INTEL tracker (see: https://intel.arkm.com/explorer/entity/el-salvador). Any temporary glitches or errors in the tracker will not be considered. If the tracker becomes permanently unavailable another credible source may be used. Official announcements form the government of El Salvador confirming their bitcoin holdings have reached or surpassed $1b in value will also qualify. \n",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://intel.arkm.com/explorer/entity/el-salvador",
        "sources": [
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            "url": "https://intel.arkm.com/explorer/entity/el-salvador",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
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          {
            "name": "ARKHAM INTEL tracker",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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          {
            "name": "Official announcements form the government of El Salvador",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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        "source_of_record": "ARKHAM INTEL tracker",
        "source_mechanism": "precedence",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "named",
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        "source_hedge_text": null
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      "rcg": {
        "grade": "B",
        "score": 74,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 7
      },
      "last_price": 0.23,
      "implied_probability": 0.23,
      "volume_24h_usd": 18,
      "volume_total_usd": 9932.037965,
      "settlement_style": "terminal",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 1000000000,
      "question_id": "CMX-DDC02D858B",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "bitcoin",
        "btc",
        "el-salvador"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    }
  ],
  "resolution_log": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-DDLB7NSQF8",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "outcome": "closed",
      "resolved_at": "2026-01-01T08:21:51Z",
      "final_price": null,
      "recorded_at": "2026-07-06",
      "source": "platform_api",
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    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-Y3LJ0T33Z7",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "outcome": "closed",
      "resolved_at": "2025-10-01T06:30:43Z",
      "final_price": null,
      "recorded_at": "2026-07-06",
      "source": "platform_api",
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  "_provenance": {
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    "ref": "CM-EVT-HM4KZN3DX8",
    "terms": "Attribution required. clearmarket.fyi"
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}