{
  "_notice": {
    "type": "free_key_offer",
    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
  },
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-BHC488VVJ4",
  "slug": "will-elon-musk-and-sam-altman-settle",
  "question": "Will Elon Musk and Sam Altman settle by December 31, 2026?",
  "category": "technology",
  "event_type": "BINARY",
  "ladder_distribution": null,
  "tags": [
    "technology",
    "tech",
    "openai",
    "legal-settlement",
    "elon-musk",
    "sam-altman"
  ],
  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "This market tracks whether Elon Musk and Sam Altman reach a legal settlement in their ongoing civil dispute. Resolution depends on U.S. District Court, Northern District of California public docket records for Musk v. Altman et al., Case No. 4:24-cv-04722. Polymarket's UMA Optimistic Oracle governs settlement determination. The market closes December 31, 2026.",
  "venues_covered": [
    "polymarket"
  ],
  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-MY45L9SH25",
  "current_primary_mark": {
    "last_price": 0,
    "implied_probability": 0
  },
  "created_at": "2026-07-06T00:30:45.836226+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-07-06T00:30:45.836226+00:00",
  "markets": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-MY45L9SH25",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-BHC488VVJ4",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x140eb203cfebb00d88630f849849315352dfacc59af0bc1a0636721f60c38a0f",
      "question": "Will Elon Musk and Sam Altman settle?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the claims between Elon Musk and Sam Altman in Musk v. Altman et al., Case No. 4:24-cv-04722-YGR (U.S. District Court, Northern District of California), are settled by 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nA settlement refers to an agreement between Elon Musk and Sam Altman that resolves all claims between them in this case, whether through a formal settlement agreement, stipulated dismissal, or other court-recognized resolution indicating that the claims between these two parties have been resolved. Announcements o",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "U.S. District Court, Northern District of California public docket records for Musk v. Altman et al., Case No. 4:24-cv-04722-YGR, showing settlement or dismissal status by December 31, 2026.",
      "close_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "resolved",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the claims between Elon Musk and Sam Altman in Musk v. Altman et al., Case No. 4:24-cv-04722-YGR (U.S. District Court, Northern District of California), are settled by 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nA settlement refers to an agreement between Elon Musk and Sam Altman that resolves all claims between them in this case, whether through a formal settlement agreement, stipulated dismissal, or other court-recognized resolution indicating that the claims between these two parties have been resolved. Announcements of such a settlement will qualify, regardless of whether final paperwork is completed or court approval occurs after the deadline.\n\nSettlements involving other parties (e.g., OpenAI or any additional defendants) will not count unless they also resolve all claims between Elon Musk and Sam Altman.\n\nIf all claims between Elon Musk and Sam Altman are resolved through a final court judgment (e.g., trial verdict or dispositive ruling), or through a unilateral dismissal of claims not constituting a settlement, before any qualifying settlement occurs, this market will immediately resolve to \"No\".\n\nThe primary resolution source will be official information from the U.S. court system (including filings, orders, or docket updates). A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": null,
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "official information from the U.S. court system (including filings, orders, or docket updates)",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "consensus of credible reporting",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "U.S. court system",
        "source_mechanism": "precedence",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 60,
        "caps": [
          "multi_source_no_conflict_rule"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 7
      },
      "last_price": 0,
      "implied_probability": 0,
      "volume_24h_usd": 64.06,
      "volume_total_usd": 28675.136851999996,
      "settlement_style": "occurrence",
      "direction": "occurrence",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": "CMX-55E3B36FA9",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "elon musk sam",
        "elon-musk",
        "litigation",
        "sam-altman",
        "settlement"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    }
  ],
  "resolution_log": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-MY45L9SH25",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "outcome": "NO",
      "resolved_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "final_price": 0,
      "recorded_at": "2026-07-07T06:00:59.667Z",
      "source": "platform_api",
      "source_ref": null
    }
  ],
  "_provenance": {
    "source": "clearmarket.fyi",
    "ref": "CM-EVT-BHC488VVJ4",
    "terms": "Attribution required. clearmarket.fyi"
  }
}