{
  "_notice": {
    "type": "free_key_offer",
    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
  },
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-SCZMJFQPD8",
  "slug": "will-elon-musk-announce-presidential-run-before-2027",
  "question": "Will Elon Musk announce a presidential run before 2027?",
  "category": "politics",
  "event_type": "BINARY",
  "ladder_distribution": null,
  "tags": [
    "politics",
    "us-elections",
    "elon-musk",
    "2026",
    "political-announcements",
    "celebrity-politics"
  ],
  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "This market tracks whether Elon Musk will publicly declare a 2028 presidential candidacy before January 1, 2027. A qualifying announcement requires an official statement via speech, social media, or public communication. Resolution is handled by Polymarket's UMA Optimistic Oracle against that stated source standard. No cross-platform contrast is available; only one market exists under this event.",
  "venues_covered": [
    "polymarket"
  ],
  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-GL8RZRJH74",
  "current_primary_mark": {
    "last_price": 0.037,
    "implied_probability": 0.037
  },
  "created_at": "2026-06-03T14:52:43.794845+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-06-03T14:52:43.794845+00:00",
  "markets": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-GL8RZRJH74",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-SCZMJFQPD8",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0xd38ce5ecef557567663c536ba6e11945b42589f208367e6cb8b68c894ee9d901",
      "question": "Will Elon Musk announce Presidential run before 2027?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Elon Musk officially announces that he is running for U.S. President in the 2028 presidential election between November 5, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nFor the purpose of resolving this market, an announcement by Elon Musk will be sufficient to trigger a \"Yes\" resolution, regardless of whether he actually filed a nomination to run, or whether he actually files a nomination to run in the future.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official statements by Elon Musk (ex: via speech, s",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "Official statements by Elon Musk, including speeches, social media posts, and public communications, announcing a 2028 U.S. Presidential run between November 5, 2025 and December 31, 2026.",
      "close_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Elon Musk officially announces that he is running for U.S. President in the 2028 presidential election between November 5, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nFor the purpose of resolving this market, an announcement by Elon Musk will be sufficient to trigger a \"Yes\" resolution, regardless of whether he actually filed a nomination to run, or whether he actually files a nomination to run in the future.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official statements by Elon Musk (ex: via speech, social media, etc.) or his official or legal representatives, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": null,
        "sources": null,
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": null,
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_placeholder",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 52,
        "caps": [
          "multi_source_no_conflict_rule",
          "uncommitted_placeholder"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 7
      },
      "last_price": 0.037,
      "implied_probability": 0.037,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 21271.28436900001,
      "settlement_style": "occurrence",
      "direction": "occurrence",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "2024",
        "2025",
        "2026",
        "announcement",
        "elon musk",
        "elon musk presidential",
        "presidential election"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    }
  ],
  "resolution_log": [],
  "_provenance": {
    "source": "clearmarket.fyi",
    "ref": "CM-EVT-SCZMJFQPD8",
    "terms": "Attribution required. clearmarket.fyi"
  }
}