{
  "_notice": {
    "type": "free_key_offer",
    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
  },
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-3K09089FT4",
  "slug": "will-elon-musk-buy-ryanair",
  "question": "Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair?",
  "category": "companies",
  "event_type": "BINARY",
  "ladder_distribution": null,
  "tags": [
    "companies",
    "business",
    "tech",
    "acquisition",
    "elon-musk",
    "airlines"
  ],
  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "This market tracks whether Elon Musk will execute a binding acquisition of Ryanair by June 30, 2026. Resolution requires credible reporting of a formal agreement, not speculation or rumor. The single Polymarket contract resolves via Polymarket's UMA Optimistic Oracle. No corroborating platform prices this event, limiting cross-market validation.",
  "venues_covered": [
    "polymarket"
  ],
  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-BYSF706RN2",
  "current_primary_mark": {
    "last_price": 0,
    "implied_probability": 0
  },
  "created_at": "2026-07-06T00:30:45.836226+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-07-06T00:30:45.836226+00:00",
  "markets": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-BYSF706RN2",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-3K09089FT4",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0xb740ce80109379eff6b906889bcc5e8e801c221a11a52dbad6e7f965a825bc78",
      "question": "Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair?",
      "description": "On January 16, Elon Musk posted that buying Ryanair might be a \"good idea.\" You can read more about that here: https://x.com/elonmusk/status/2012172825444913299\n\nThis market will resolve to “Yes” if credible reporting confirms that Elon Musk, either personally or through an entity led or majority owned by him, enters into an agreement to buy Ryanair by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nAn announced agreement between Elon Musk and Ryanair will qualify for a “Yes” resolution, regardless of whether the acquisition is ultimately completed.\n\nAn agreement to m",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "Credible reporting of a binding acquisition agreement between Elon Musk (personally or through an entity he leads/majority owns) and Ryanair announced by June 30, 2026.",
      "close_at": "2026-06-30T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-06-30T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "resolved",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "On January 16, Elon Musk posted that buying Ryanair might be a \"good idea.\" You can read more about that here: https://x.com/elonmusk/status/2012172825444913299\n\nThis market will resolve to “Yes” if credible reporting confirms that Elon Musk, either personally or through an entity led or majority owned by him, enters into an agreement to buy Ryanair by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nAn announced agreement between Elon Musk and Ryanair will qualify for a “Yes” resolution, regardless of whether the acquisition is ultimately completed.\n\nAn agreement to merge with a qualifying entity will count toward \"Yes\" resolution.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market is official information from Elon Musk and Ryanair, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": "https://x.com/elonmusk/status/2012172825444913299",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "x.com",
            "url": "https://x.com/elonmusk/status/2012172825444913299",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "official information from Elon Musk and Ryanair",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "a consensus of credible reporting",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": null,
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_placeholder",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 40,
        "caps": [
          "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0,
      "implied_probability": 0,
      "volume_24h_usd": 10160.05428,
      "volume_total_usd": 3520143.5150359967,
      "settlement_style": "occurrence",
      "direction": "occurrence",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": "CMX-77A5DAC165",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "acquisition",
        "elon musk",
        "elon musk acquisition",
        "m&a",
        "ryanair"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    }
  ],
  "resolution_log": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-BYSF706RN2",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "outcome": "NO",
      "resolved_at": "2026-06-30T00:00:00Z",
      "final_price": 0,
      "recorded_at": "2026-07-06",
      "source": "platform_api",
      "source_ref": null
    }
  ],
  "_provenance": {
    "source": "clearmarket.fyi",
    "ref": "CM-EVT-3K09089FT4",
    "terms": "Attribution required. clearmarket.fyi"
  }
}