{
  "_notice": {
    "type": "free_key_offer",
    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
  },
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-C0T3YMBW59",
  "slug": "will-exponent-launch-a-token-by",
  "question": "Will Exponent launch a token by 2027?",
  "category": "crypto",
  "event_type": "BINARY",
  "ladder_distribution": null,
  "tags": [
    "crypto",
    "token-launch",
    "exponent",
    "2027",
    "altcoin-ecosystem"
  ],
  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "These markets track whether Exponent will launch a token by successive deadlines across 2026 and 2027. All five markets are structured as binary yes/no outcomes on Polymarket, with deadlines at March 31, June 30, and September 30, 2026, then December 31, 2026, and December 31, 2027. Earlier deadlines imply the later ones, creating a cascading probability structure across the series. Resolution for all markets relies on Polymarket's UMA Optimistic Oracle.",
  "venues_covered": [
    "polymarket"
  ],
  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-0C87Y2GKS2",
  "current_primary_mark": {
    "last_price": 0.24,
    "implied_probability": 0.24
  },
  "created_at": "2026-07-06T00:30:45.836226+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-07-06T00:30:45.836226+00:00",
  "markets": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-N7K3XHVZX4",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-C0T3YMBW59",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x8f556c1a64b593796ea422693ff29a3ff768cede5e5991f7a46bb0ec59a2e7c0",
      "question": "Will Exponent launch a token by September 30, 2026?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if Exponent (https://x.com/ExponentFinance) officially launches a governance token by 11:59 PM ET on the date specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nThe token must be actively and publicly transferable and tradable. Announcements alone do not qualify.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be information from Exponent, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "September 30, 2026: Resolution per the event's stated source and mechanism (subject supplied per market).",
      "close_at": "2027-01-01T05:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-01-01T05:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if Exponent (https://x.com/ExponentFinance) officially launches a governance token by 11:59 PM ET on the date specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nThe token must be actively and publicly transferable and tradable. Announcements alone do not qualify.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be information from Exponent, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": "https://x.com/ExponentFinance",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "x.com",
            "url": "https://x.com/ExponentFinance",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Exponent",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "consensus of credible reporting",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": null,
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_placeholder",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 40,
        "caps": [
          "multi_source_no_conflict_rule",
          "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 7
      },
      "last_price": 0.099,
      "implied_probability": 0.099,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 31978.825998000008,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "occurrence",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": "CMX-116893C20C",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "exponent",
        "launch",
        "token"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-0C87Y2GKS2",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-C0T3YMBW59",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x411d2f1251d86d9a4f30186c660745c597d18a19737fd8f7b4ee1483ece9ffde",
      "question": "Will Exponent launch a token by December 31, 2026?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if Exponent (https://x.com/ExponentFinance) officially launches a governance token by 11:59 PM ET on the date specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nThe token must be actively and publicly transferable and tradable. Announcements alone do not qualify.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be information from Exponent, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "December 31, 2026: Resolution per the event's stated source and mechanism (subject supplied per market).",
      "close_at": "2027-01-01T05:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-01-01T05:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if Exponent (https://x.com/ExponentFinance) officially launches a governance token by 11:59 PM ET on the date specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nThe token must be actively and publicly transferable and tradable. Announcements alone do not qualify.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be information from Exponent, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": "https://x.com/ExponentFinance",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "x.com",
            "url": "https://x.com/ExponentFinance",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Exponent",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "consensus of credible reporting",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": null,
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_placeholder",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 40,
        "caps": [
          "multi_source_no_conflict_rule",
          "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 7
      },
      "last_price": 0.24,
      "implied_probability": 0.24,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 353835.5399160001,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "occurrence",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": "CMX-B8681B67DA",
      "also_on": [
        {
          "venue": "kalshi",
          "market_id": "CM-MKT-QSRM0QFFB6",
          "price": 0.33
        }
      ],
      "tags": [
        "exponent",
        "launch",
        "token"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-CVB2PGKQ25",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-C0T3YMBW59",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0xb04db31a362b79a7e001c1a299c3243ab8e30e5de47399560177d48e8272ee63",
      "question": "Will Exponent launch a token by March 31, 2026?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if Exponent (https://x.com/ExponentFinance) officially launches a governance token by 11:59 PM ET on the date specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nThe token must be actively and publicly transferable and tradable. Announcements alone do not qualify.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be information from Exponent, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "March 31, 2026: Resolution per the event's stated source and mechanism (subject supplied per market).",
      "close_at": "2027-01-01T05:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-01-01T05:00:00Z",
      "status": "resolved",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if Exponent (https://x.com/ExponentFinance) officially launches a governance token by 11:59 PM ET on the date specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nThe token must be actively and publicly transferable and tradable. Announcements alone do not qualify.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be information from Exponent, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": "https://x.com/ExponentFinance",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "x.com",
            "url": "https://x.com/ExponentFinance",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Exponent",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "consensus of credible reporting",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": null,
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_placeholder",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 40,
        "caps": [
          "multi_source_no_conflict_rule",
          "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 7
      },
      "last_price": 0,
      "implied_probability": 0,
      "volume_24h_usd": null,
      "volume_total_usd": 57084.773606999996,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "occurrence",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": "CMX-AD5023CC01",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "exponent",
        "launch",
        "token"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-SYN8D4GMD2",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-C0T3YMBW59",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x0569085637b507bc48d2b1f78b07156ce07fad4ed9495dd3ed15964ffce2bab0",
      "question": "Will Exponent launch a token by June 30, 2026?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if Exponent (https://x.com/ExponentFinance) officially launches a governance token by 11:59 PM ET on the date specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nThe token must be actively and publicly transferable and tradable. Announcements alone do not qualify.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be information from Exponent, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "June 30, 2026: Resolution per the event's stated source and mechanism (subject supplied per market).",
      "close_at": "2027-01-01T05:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-01-01T05:00:00Z",
      "status": "resolved",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if Exponent (https://x.com/ExponentFinance) officially launches a governance token by 11:59 PM ET on the date specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nThe token must be actively and publicly transferable and tradable. Announcements alone do not qualify.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be information from Exponent, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": "https://x.com/ExponentFinance",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "x.com",
            "url": "https://x.com/ExponentFinance",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Exponent",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "consensus of credible reporting",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": null,
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_placeholder",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 40,
        "caps": [
          "multi_source_no_conflict_rule",
          "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 7
      },
      "last_price": 0,
      "implied_probability": 0,
      "volume_24h_usd": 64.96,
      "volume_total_usd": 24400.039208000002,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "occurrence",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": "CMX-8B297719FC",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "exponent",
        "launch",
        "token"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-5FWK7GWQX0",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-C0T3YMBW59",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x98d54453621129d07bfda4840fb6aa59f98fd90663e7fa5ab4541b7ed21da642",
      "question": "Will Exponent launch a token by December 31, 2027?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if Exponent (https://x.com/ExponentFinance) officially launches a governance token by 11:59 PM ET on the date specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nThe token must be actively and publicly transferable and tradable. Announcements alone do not qualify.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be information from Exponent, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "December 31, 2027: Resolution per the event's stated source and mechanism (subject supplied per market).",
      "close_at": "2028-01-01T05:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2028-01-01T05:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if Exponent (https://x.com/ExponentFinance) officially launches a governance token by 11:59 PM ET on the date specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nThe token must be actively and publicly transferable and tradable. Announcements alone do not qualify.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be information from Exponent, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": "https://x.com/ExponentFinance",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "x.com",
            "url": "https://x.com/ExponentFinance",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Exponent",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "consensus of credible reporting",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": null,
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_placeholder",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 40,
        "caps": [
          "multi_source_no_conflict_rule",
          "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 7
      },
      "last_price": 0.51,
      "implied_probability": 0.51,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 20625.790536,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "occurrence",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": "CMX-B7F3C1311D",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "exponent",
        "launch",
        "token"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    }
  ],
  "resolution_log": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-SYN8D4GMD2",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "event_type": "resolved",
      "outcome": "NO",
      "resolved_at": "2026-07-01T10:52:11Z",
      "deadline_at": null,
      "occurred_basis": "venue_settlement",
      "final_price": 0,
      "recorded_at": "2026-07-23",
      "source": "platform_api",
      "source_ref": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-CVB2PGKQ25",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "event_type": "resolved",
      "outcome": "NO",
      "resolved_at": "2026-04-01T08:44:17Z",
      "deadline_at": null,
      "occurred_basis": "venue_settlement",
      "final_price": 0,
      "recorded_at": "2026-07-23",
      "source": "platform_api",
      "source_ref": null
    }
  ],
  "_provenance": {
    "source": "clearmarket.fyi",
    "ref": "CM-EVT-C0T3YMBW59",
    "terms": "Attribution required. clearmarket.fyi"
  }
}