{
  "_notice": {
    "type": "free_key_offer",
    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
  },
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-CWB8PTPCT9",
  "slug": "will-gavin-newsom-announce-presidential-run-by",
  "question": "Will Gavin Newsom announce a presidential run by 2026?",
  "category": "politics",
  "event_type": "BINARY",
  "ladder_distribution": null,
  "tags": [
    "politics",
    "us-presidential-race",
    "gavin-newsom",
    "political-announcements",
    "2026"
  ],
  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "These markets track whether California Governor Gavin Newsom will formally announce a 2028 presidential campaign. The two Polymarket contracts differ by deadline: one resolved at end of 2025, the other closes December 31, 2026. Both resolve via Polymarket's UMA Optimistic Oracle. The 2025 contract reached its resolve timestamp on January 1, 2026.",
  "venues_covered": [
    "polymarket"
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  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-8ZV1PV88X6",
  "current_primary_mark": {
    "last_price": 0.1,
    "implied_probability": 0.1
  },
  "created_at": "2026-07-06T00:30:45.836226+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-07-06T00:30:45.836226+00:00",
  "markets": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-0HR9MFNRN2",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-CWB8PTPCT9",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x3d17675e8f10eb1d3ffbd722c329f2e380181dfe91d8a3a2ffd20a2acc214211",
      "question": "Will Gavin Newsom announce a Presidential run by December 31, 2025?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Gavin Newsom officially announces that he is running for U.S. President in the 2028 presidential election, by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No.\"\n\nFor the purpose of resolving this market, an announcement by Gavin Newsom will be sufficient to trigger a \"Yes\" resolution, regardless of whether he actually filed a nomination to run, or whether he actually files a nomination to run in the future.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official statements by Gavin Newsom (e.g., via speech, social media, e",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "December 31, 2025: Resolution per the event's stated source and mechanism (subject supplied per market).",
      "close_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-01-01T10:18:15Z",
      "status": "closed",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Gavin Newsom officially announces that he is running for U.S. President in the 2028 presidential election, by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No.\"\n\nFor the purpose of resolving this market, an announcement by Gavin Newsom will be sufficient to trigger a \"Yes\" resolution, regardless of whether he actually filed a nomination to run, or whether he actually files a nomination to run in the future.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official statements by Gavin Newsom (e.g., via speech, social media, etc.) or his official or legal representatives; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": null,
        "sources": null,
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": null,
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_placeholder",
        "source_hedge_text": null
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      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 52,
        "caps": [
          "multi_source_no_conflict_rule",
          "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
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        "applied_factors": 7
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      "last_price": 0.001,
      "implied_probability": 0.001,
      "volume_24h_usd": null,
      "volume_total_usd": 31734.824838,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "occurrence",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "2024-2026",
        "gavin newsom presidential",
        "gavin-newsom",
        "us-politics"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-8ZV1PV88X6",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-CWB8PTPCT9",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x52226ec4393285ffc942019f20e3210e9311fc64cf1c7a9d1e9fbf27237352a6",
      "question": "Will Gavin Newsom announce a Presidential run by December 31, 2026?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Gavin Newsom officially announces that he is running for U.S. President in the 2028 presidential election, by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No.\"\n\nFor the purpose of resolving this market, an announcement by Gavin Newsom will be sufficient to trigger a \"Yes\" resolution, regardless of whether he actually filed a nomination to run, or whether he actually files a nomination to run in the future.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official statements by Gavin Newsom (e.g., via speech, social media, e",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "December 31, 2026: Resolution per the event's stated source and mechanism (subject supplied per market).",
      "close_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Gavin Newsom officially announces that he is running for U.S. President in the 2028 presidential election, by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No.\"\n\nFor the purpose of resolving this market, an announcement by Gavin Newsom will be sufficient to trigger a \"Yes\" resolution, regardless of whether he actually filed a nomination to run, or whether he actually files a nomination to run in the future.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official statements by Gavin Newsom (e.g., via speech, social media, etc.) or his official or legal representatives; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": null,
        "sources": null,
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": null,
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
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        "source_hedge_text": null
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      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 52,
        "caps": [
          "multi_source_no_conflict_rule",
          "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 7
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      "last_price": 0.1,
      "implied_probability": 0.1,
      "volume_24h_usd": 373.47,
      "volume_total_usd": 56204.87163500006,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "occurrence",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "2024-2026",
        "gavin newsom presidential",
        "gavin-newsom",
        "us-politics"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    }
  ],
  "resolution_log": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-0HR9MFNRN2",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "outcome": "closed",
      "resolved_at": "2026-01-01T10:18:15Z",
      "final_price": null,
      "recorded_at": "2026-07-06",
      "source": "platform_api",
      "source_ref": null
    }
  ],
  "_provenance": {
    "source": "clearmarket.fyi",
    "ref": "CM-EVT-CWB8PTPCT9",
    "terms": "Attribution required. clearmarket.fyi"
  }
}