{
  "_notice": {
    "type": "free_key_offer",
    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
  },
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-PB0V7YRG55",
  "slug": "will-greenland-vote-for-independence-in-2026",
  "question": "Will Greenland vote for independence in 2026?",
  "category": "geopolitics",
  "event_type": "BINARY",
  "ladder_distribution": null,
  "tags": [
    "geopolitics",
    "greenland-independence",
    "2026-referendum",
    "arctic-geopolitics",
    "politics",
    "denmark-sovereignty"
  ],
  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "This market tracks whether Greenland holds and passes an independence referendum by December 31, 2026. Only Polymarket is listed; no cross-platform structural contrast is available. Resolution follows Polymarket's UMA Optimistic Oracle, referencing official announcements from the governments of Greenland and Denmark. No referendum has been scheduled as of the current date.",
  "venues_covered": [
    "polymarket"
  ],
  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-QRSXB0SDY2",
  "current_primary_mark": {
    "last_price": 0.052,
    "implied_probability": 0.052
  },
  "created_at": "2026-07-23T21:11:14.426158+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-07-23T21:11:14.426158+00:00",
  "markets": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-QRSXB0SDY2",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-PB0V7YRG55",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0xa6ef52567677573f60cc0dd4450d9c5bc0bc67fac27b6f5b5d6d90bfb89ec790",
      "question": "Will Greenland vote for independence in 2026?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if Greenland holds an independence referendum and a majority of voters in the referendum vote for independence by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. \n\nA referendum to join a country other than Denmark will be considered to be a referendum for independence.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of Greenland and/or Denmark; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.\n",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "Official announcements from the governments of Greenland and Denmark regarding any independence referendum held by December 31, 2026.",
      "close_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if Greenland holds an independence referendum and a majority of voters in the referendum vote for independence by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. \n\nA referendum to join a country other than Denmark will be considered to be a referendum for independence.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of Greenland and/or Denmark; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.\n",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": null,
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "official information from the governments of Greenland and/or Denmark",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "a consensus of credible reporting",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": null,
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_placeholder",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 54,
        "caps": [
          "multi_source_no_conflict_rule",
          "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 7
      },
      "last_price": 0.052,
      "implied_probability": 0.052,
      "volume_24h_usd": 26.797038,
      "volume_total_usd": 47423.67102999997,
      "settlement_style": "occurrence",
      "direction": "occurrence",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "2026",
        "denmark",
        "greenland",
        "greenland independence referendum",
        "politics",
        "referendum"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    }
  ],
  "resolution_log": [],
  "_provenance": {
    "source": "clearmarket.fyi",
    "ref": "CM-EVT-PB0V7YRG55",
    "terms": "Attribution required. clearmarket.fyi"
  }
}