{
  "_notice": {
    "type": "free_key_offer",
    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
  },
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-PDKX4Y2KV6",
  "slug": "will-ground-beef-hit-in-2026",
  "question": "Will ground beef reach $__ per pound in 2026?",
  "category": "economics",
  "event_type": "BINARY",
  "ladder_distribution": null,
  "tags": [
    "economics",
    "economy",
    "inflation",
    "commodity-prices",
    "food-prices",
    "2026"
  ],
  "catalyst_types": [
    "cpi",
    "jobs",
    "gdp",
    "fomc"
  ],
  "catalyst_dates": [
    {
      "date": "2026-06-05",
      "type": "jobs",
      "label": "Employment Situation",
      "source_url": "https://www.bls.gov/ces/"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-06-10",
      "type": "cpi",
      "label": "CPI release",
      "source_url": "https://www.bls.gov/cpi/"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-06-17",
      "type": "fomc",
      "label": "FOMC rate decision",
      "source_url": "https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-06-25",
      "type": "gdp",
      "label": "GDP release",
      "source_url": "https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-07-02",
      "type": "jobs",
      "label": "Employment Situation",
      "source_url": "https://www.bls.gov/ces/"
    }
  ],
  "editorial_notes": "These markets track whether the U.S. average retail price of ground beef will reach discrete price thresholds at any point in 2026. The four Polymarket contracts form a strike ladder at $7, $8, $9, and $10 per pound, each pricing a binary breach outcome at a distinct level. All four resolve via Polymarket's UMA Optimistic Oracle against FRED series APU0000703112, published by the Federal Reserve Economic Data system. A key caveat: FRED publishes monthly averages, so intra-month price spikes that do not register in the series will not trigger resolution.",
  "venues_covered": [
    "polymarket"
  ],
  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-68LYSSG2M4",
  "current_primary_mark": {
    "last_price": 0.18,
    "implied_probability": 0.18
  },
  "created_at": "2026-06-03T14:52:43.794845+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-06-03T14:52:43.794845+00:00",
  "markets": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-188TJCXZ07",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-PDKX4Y2KV6",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x49ee620e6e0ae23a7a52f53d03336c5fb289906c62d22836f1cceea50908dc4f",
      "question": "Will ground beef hit $7 per pound in 2026?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the figure for \"Average Price: Ground Beef, 100% Beef (Cost per Pound/453.6 Grams) in U.S. City Average\" reaches or exceeds the listed figure for any month of 2026 as published by the St. Louis Fed (https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/APU0000703112). Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nThe St. Louis Fed bases its numbers for ground beef prices on the BLS's CPI release. This market will immediately resolve to \"Yes\" upon a qualifying update of the St. Louis Fed's chart. If no data for any month of 2026 is released by the scheduled date for the Januar",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "The Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED) series APU0000703112 publishes the average price of ground beef per pound for U.S. City Average each month through 2026.",
      "close_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the figure for \"Average Price: Ground Beef, 100% Beef (Cost per Pound/453.6 Grams) in U.S. City Average\" reaches or exceeds the listed figure for any month of 2026 as published by the St. Louis Fed (https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/APU0000703112). Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nThe St. Louis Fed bases its numbers for ground beef prices on the BLS's CPI release. This market will immediately resolve to \"Yes\" upon a qualifying update of the St. Louis Fed's chart. If no data for any month of 2026 is released by the scheduled date for the January 2027 CPI release, this market will resolve according to the data for 2026 already available at that time.\n\nThe resolution source for this market measures prices to the third decimal place. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": "Bls",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/APU0000703112",
        "sources": null,
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": null,
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 84,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.91,
      "implied_probability": 0.91,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 52.903421,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 7,
      "question_id": "CMX-BA3F1E87A6",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "beef",
        "commodity",
        "ground beef",
        "price",
        "usd"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-LLKFFDQPQ6",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-PDKX4Y2KV6",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x4d92632a8f30a2c1bd7cfca50093715f6270542c681466483c9f3193be15cda0",
      "question": "Will ground beef hit $8 per pound in 2026?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the figure for \"Average Price: Ground Beef, 100% Beef (Cost per Pound/453.6 Grams) in U.S. City Average\" reaches or exceeds the listed figure for any month of 2026 as published by the St. Louis Fed (https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/APU0000703112). Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nThe St. Louis Fed bases its numbers for ground beef prices on the BLS's CPI release. This market will immediately resolve to \"Yes\" upon a qualifying update of the St. Louis Fed's chart. If no data for any month of 2026 is released by the scheduled date for the Januar",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "The Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED) series APU0000703112 publishes the average price of ground beef per pound for U.S. City Average each month through 2026.",
      "close_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the figure for \"Average Price: Ground Beef, 100% Beef (Cost per Pound/453.6 Grams) in U.S. City Average\" reaches or exceeds the listed figure for any month of 2026 as published by the St. Louis Fed (https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/APU0000703112). Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nThe St. Louis Fed bases its numbers for ground beef prices on the BLS's CPI release. This market will immediately resolve to \"Yes\" upon a qualifying update of the St. Louis Fed's chart. If no data for any month of 2026 is released by the scheduled date for the January 2027 CPI release, this market will resolve according to the data for 2026 already available at that time.\n\nThe resolution source for this market measures prices to the third decimal place. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": "Bls",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/APU0000703112",
        "sources": null,
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": null,
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 84,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.29,
      "implied_probability": 0.29,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 1835.4843570000005,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 8,
      "question_id": "CMX-784F522775",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "beef",
        "commodity",
        "ground beef",
        "price",
        "usd"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-68LYSSG2M4",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-PDKX4Y2KV6",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x4f1e6d88045775d0b85d6599626442cd64c88bbc0bc4213a679dec879b303c21",
      "question": "Will ground beef hit $10 per pound in 2026?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the figure for \"Average Price: Ground Beef, 100% Beef (Cost per Pound/453.6 Grams) in U.S. City Average\" reaches or exceeds the listed figure for any month of 2026 as published by the St. Louis Fed (https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/APU0000703112). Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nThe St. Louis Fed bases its numbers for ground beef prices on the BLS's CPI release. This market will immediately resolve to \"Yes\" upon a qualifying update of the St. Louis Fed's chart. If no data for any month of 2026 is released by the scheduled date for the Januar",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "The Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED) series APU0000703112 publishes the average price of ground beef per pound for U.S. City Average each month through 2026.",
      "close_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the figure for \"Average Price: Ground Beef, 100% Beef (Cost per Pound/453.6 Grams) in U.S. City Average\" reaches or exceeds the listed figure for any month of 2026 as published by the St. Louis Fed (https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/APU0000703112). Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nThe St. Louis Fed bases its numbers for ground beef prices on the BLS's CPI release. This market will immediately resolve to \"Yes\" upon a qualifying update of the St. Louis Fed's chart. If no data for any month of 2026 is released by the scheduled date for the January 2027 CPI release, this market will resolve according to the data for 2026 already available at that time.\n\nThe resolution source for this market measures prices to the third decimal place. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": "Bls",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/APU0000703112",
        "sources": null,
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": null,
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 84,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.18,
      "implied_probability": 0.18,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 18562.655347999993,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 10,
      "question_id": "CMX-0297F302E3",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "beef",
        "commodity",
        "ground beef",
        "price",
        "usd"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-M3XXF72QW9",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-PDKX4Y2KV6",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0xd20b5d0c73c824a7a0c2937baa24c3ad8913fa1d4a057f0cc702b5705a7ac307",
      "question": "Will ground beef hit $9 per pound in 2026?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the figure for \"Average Price: Ground Beef, 100% Beef (Cost per Pound/453.6 Grams) in U.S. City Average\" reaches or exceeds the listed figure for any month of 2026 as published by the St. Louis Fed (https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/APU0000703112). Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nThe St. Louis Fed bases its numbers for ground beef prices on the BLS's CPI release. This market will immediately resolve to \"Yes\" upon a qualifying update of the St. Louis Fed's chart. If no data for any month of 2026 is released by the scheduled date for the Januar",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "The Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED) series APU0000703112 publishes the average price of ground beef per pound for U.S. City Average each month through 2026.",
      "close_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the figure for \"Average Price: Ground Beef, 100% Beef (Cost per Pound/453.6 Grams) in U.S. City Average\" reaches or exceeds the listed figure for any month of 2026 as published by the St. Louis Fed (https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/APU0000703112). Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nThe St. Louis Fed bases its numbers for ground beef prices on the BLS's CPI release. This market will immediately resolve to \"Yes\" upon a qualifying update of the St. Louis Fed's chart. If no data for any month of 2026 is released by the scheduled date for the January 2027 CPI release, this market will resolve according to the data for 2026 already available at that time.\n\nThe resolution source for this market measures prices to the third decimal place. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": "Bls",
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/APU0000703112",
        "sources": null,
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": null,
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 84,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.13,
      "implied_probability": 0.13,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 703.1001940000001,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 9,
      "question_id": "CMX-25A151C4C1",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "beef",
        "commodity",
        "ground beef",
        "price",
        "usd"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    }
  ],
  "resolution_log": [],
  "_provenance": {
    "source": "clearmarket.fyi",
    "ref": "CM-EVT-PDKX4Y2KV6",
    "terms": "Attribution required. clearmarket.fyi"
  }
}