{
  "_notice": {
    "type": "free_key_offer",
    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
  },
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-PDKX4Y2KV6",
  "slug": "will-ground-beef-hit-in-2026",
  "question": "Will ground beef hit __ in 2026?",
  "category": "economics",
  "event_type": "BINARY",
  "ladder_distribution": null,
  "tags": [
    "economics",
    "economy",
    "inflation",
    "commodity-prices",
    "food-prices",
    "2026"
  ],
  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "These markets track whether the average U.S. ground beef retail price reaches discrete strike thresholds in 2026. The four Polymarket contracts form a strike ladder at $7, $8, $9, and $10 per pound, implying decreasing probability at each level. Resolution relies on FRED series APU0000703112, published by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Settlement is determined by Polymarket's UMA Optimistic Oracle against that series through December 31, 2026.",
  "venues_covered": [
    "polymarket"
  ],
  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-68LYSSG2M4",
  "current_primary_mark": {
    "last_price": 0.13,
    "implied_probability": 0.13,
    "as_of": "2026-09-06T06:00:48.475Z"
  },
  "created_at": "2026-08-04T20:03:51.865287+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-08-04T20:03:51.865287+00:00",
  "markets": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-188TJCXZ07",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-PDKX4Y2KV6",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x49ee620e6e0ae23a7a52f53d03336c5fb289906c62d22836f1cceea50908dc4f",
      "question": "Will ground beef hit $7 per pound in 2026?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the figure for \"Average Price: Ground Beef, 100% Beef (Cost per Pound/453.6 Grams) in U.S. City Average\" reaches or exceeds the listed figure for any month of 2026 as published by the St. Louis Fed (https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/APU0000703112). Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nThe St. Louis Fed bases its numbers for ground beef prices on the BLS's CPI release. This market will immediately resolve to \"Yes\" upon a qualifying update of the St. Louis Fed's chart. If no data for any month of 2026 is released by the scheduled date for the Januar",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "$7.000+: The Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED) series APU0000703112 for ground beef average price will determine if the listed price threshold is reached in any month of 2026 by December 31, 2026.",
      "close_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the figure for \"Average Price: Ground Beef, 100% Beef (Cost per Pound/453.6 Grams) in U.S. City Average\" reaches or exceeds the listed figure for any month of 2026 as published by the St. Louis Fed (https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/APU0000703112). Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nThe St. Louis Fed bases its numbers for ground beef prices on the BLS's CPI release. This market will immediately resolve to \"Yes\" upon a qualifying update of the St. Louis Fed's chart. If no data for any month of 2026 is released by the scheduled date for the January 2027 CPI release, this market will resolve according to the data for 2026 already available at that time.\n\nThe resolution source for this market measures prices to the third decimal place. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/APU0000703112",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "fred.stlouisfed.org",
            "url": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/APU0000703112",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "St. Louis Fed",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/APU0000703112",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "BLS's CPI release",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "fred.stlouisfed.org",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 90,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.09,
      "implied_probability": 0.09,
      "price_as_of": "2026-08-05T01:00:40.652Z",
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 59.263420999999994,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 7,
      "question_id": "CMX-BA3F1E87A6",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "agriculture",
        "beef",
        "commodities",
        "ground beef"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-LLKFFDQPQ6",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-PDKX4Y2KV6",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x4d92632a8f30a2c1bd7cfca50093715f6270542c681466483c9f3193be15cda0",
      "question": "Will ground beef hit $8 per pound in 2026?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the figure for \"Average Price: Ground Beef, 100% Beef (Cost per Pound/453.6 Grams) in U.S. City Average\" reaches or exceeds the listed figure for any month of 2026 as published by the St. Louis Fed (https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/APU0000703112). Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nThe St. Louis Fed bases its numbers for ground beef prices on the BLS's CPI release. This market will immediately resolve to \"Yes\" upon a qualifying update of the St. Louis Fed's chart. If no data for any month of 2026 is released by the scheduled date for the Januar",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "$8.000+: The Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED) series APU0000703112 for ground beef average price will determine if the listed price threshold is reached in any month of 2026 by December 31, 2026.",
      "close_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the figure for \"Average Price: Ground Beef, 100% Beef (Cost per Pound/453.6 Grams) in U.S. City Average\" reaches or exceeds the listed figure for any month of 2026 as published by the St. Louis Fed (https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/APU0000703112). Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nThe St. Louis Fed bases its numbers for ground beef prices on the BLS's CPI release. This market will immediately resolve to \"Yes\" upon a qualifying update of the St. Louis Fed's chart. If no data for any month of 2026 is released by the scheduled date for the January 2027 CPI release, this market will resolve according to the data for 2026 already available at that time.\n\nThe resolution source for this market measures prices to the third decimal place. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/APU0000703112",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "fred.stlouisfed.org",
            "url": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/APU0000703112",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "St. Louis Fed",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/APU0000703112",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "BLS's CPI release",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "fred.stlouisfed.org",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 90,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.29,
      "implied_probability": 0.29,
      "price_as_of": "2026-09-02T17:00:43.374Z",
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 1990.405299,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 8,
      "question_id": "CMX-784F522775",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "agriculture",
        "beef",
        "commodities",
        "ground beef"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-M3XXF72QW9",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-PDKX4Y2KV6",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0xd20b5d0c73c824a7a0c2937baa24c3ad8913fa1d4a057f0cc702b5705a7ac307",
      "question": "Will ground beef hit $9 per pound in 2026?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the figure for \"Average Price: Ground Beef, 100% Beef (Cost per Pound/453.6 Grams) in U.S. City Average\" reaches or exceeds the listed figure for any month of 2026 as published by the St. Louis Fed (https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/APU0000703112). Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nThe St. Louis Fed bases its numbers for ground beef prices on the BLS's CPI release. This market will immediately resolve to \"Yes\" upon a qualifying update of the St. Louis Fed's chart. If no data for any month of 2026 is released by the scheduled date for the Januar",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "$9.000+: The Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED) series APU0000703112 for ground beef average price will determine if the listed price threshold is reached in any month of 2026 by December 31, 2026.",
      "close_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the figure for \"Average Price: Ground Beef, 100% Beef (Cost per Pound/453.6 Grams) in U.S. City Average\" reaches or exceeds the listed figure for any month of 2026 as published by the St. Louis Fed (https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/APU0000703112). Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nThe St. Louis Fed bases its numbers for ground beef prices on the BLS's CPI release. This market will immediately resolve to \"Yes\" upon a qualifying update of the St. Louis Fed's chart. If no data for any month of 2026 is released by the scheduled date for the January 2027 CPI release, this market will resolve according to the data for 2026 already available at that time.\n\nThe resolution source for this market measures prices to the third decimal place. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/APU0000703112",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "fred.stlouisfed.org",
            "url": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/APU0000703112",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "St. Louis Fed",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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          {
            "name": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/APU0000703112",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "BLS's CPI release",
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            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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        "source_of_record": "fred.stlouisfed.org",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
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        "source_commitment": "named",
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      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 90,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.13,
      "implied_probability": 0.13,
      "price_as_of": "2026-08-29T20:00:28.003Z",
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 756.4201939999999,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 9,
      "question_id": "CMX-25A151C4C1",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "agriculture",
        "beef",
        "commodities",
        "ground beef"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-68LYSSG2M4",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-PDKX4Y2KV6",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x4f1e6d88045775d0b85d6599626442cd64c88bbc0bc4213a679dec879b303c21",
      "question": "Will ground beef hit $10 per pound in 2026?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the figure for \"Average Price: Ground Beef, 100% Beef (Cost per Pound/453.6 Grams) in U.S. City Average\" reaches or exceeds the listed figure for any month of 2026 as published by the St. Louis Fed (https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/APU0000703112). Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nThe St. Louis Fed bases its numbers for ground beef prices on the BLS's CPI release. This market will immediately resolve to \"Yes\" upon a qualifying update of the St. Louis Fed's chart. If no data for any month of 2026 is released by the scheduled date for the Januar",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "$10.000+: The Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED) series APU0000703112 for ground beef average price will determine if the listed price threshold is reached in any month of 2026 by December 31, 2026.",
      "close_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the figure for \"Average Price: Ground Beef, 100% Beef (Cost per Pound/453.6 Grams) in U.S. City Average\" reaches or exceeds the listed figure for any month of 2026 as published by the St. Louis Fed (https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/APU0000703112). Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nThe St. Louis Fed bases its numbers for ground beef prices on the BLS's CPI release. This market will immediately resolve to \"Yes\" upon a qualifying update of the St. Louis Fed's chart. If no data for any month of 2026 is released by the scheduled date for the January 2027 CPI release, this market will resolve according to the data for 2026 already available at that time.\n\nThe resolution source for this market measures prices to the third decimal place. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/APU0000703112",
        "sources": [
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      "rcg": {
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        "score": 90,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
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      "last_price": 0.13,
      "implied_probability": 0.13,
      "price_as_of": "2026-09-06T06:00:48.475Z",
      "volume_24h_usd": 46.8,
      "volume_total_usd": 18818.622337000008,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 10,
      "question_id": "CMX-0297F302E3",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "agriculture",
        "beef",
        "commodities",
        "ground beef"
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      "eligibility_screens": null
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  "resolution_log": [],
  "_provenance": {
    "source": "clearmarket.fyi",
    "ref": "CM-EVT-PDKX4Y2KV6",
    "terms": "Attribution required. clearmarket.fyi"
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}