{
  "_notice": {
    "type": "free_key_offer",
    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
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  "event_id": "CM-EVT-NGWGHQ31H1",
  "slug": "will-hamaz-disarm-by-december-31",
  "question": "Will Hamas agree to disarm by the end of this year?",
  "category": "geopolitics",
  "event_type": "BINARY",
  "ladder_distribution": null,
  "tags": [
    "geopolitics",
    "middle-east",
    "armed-groups",
    "disarmament",
    "israel-palestine",
    "2025"
  ],
  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "These markets track whether Hamas's acknowledged leadership will make an official public commitment to disarm by each respective deadline. All six contracts are on Polymarket and share the same resolution mechanism: Polymarket's UMA Optimistic Oracle, triggered by an official public announcement from Hamas leadership. The deadlines span November 2025 through December 2025, creating a term structure of disarmament probability across months. Resolution requires an unambiguous public statement; ambiguous or partial signals will not satisfy the threshold.",
  "venues_covered": [
    "polymarket"
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  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-D7KJ0MDJX7",
  "current_primary_mark": {
    "last_price": 1,
    "implied_probability": 1,
    "as_of": null
  },
  "created_at": "2026-08-04T20:03:51.865287+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-08-04T20:03:51.865287+00:00",
  "markets": [
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      "event_id": "CM-EVT-NGWGHQ31H1",
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      "platform_market_id": "0x11db077700a35d7415b6198c5e5a53adcf1db1819a09831f7eaf148f88243c40",
      "question": "Will Hamas agree to disarm by December 31?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Hamas officially announces it will disarm in the Gaza Strip by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nOnly credible announcements, for example by the widely acknowledged leadership of Hamas, will qualify.\n\nFor the purposes of this market, \"disarm\" refers to a public commitment to relinquish or dismantle its military, whether partially or completely, in the Gaza Strip.\n\nAnnouncements of partial disarmament (e.g., surrendering a class of weapons or agreeing to disarm in stages or a certain region) will qualify as long as",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "December 31: Official public announcement by the referenced organization's widely acknowledged leadership of commitment to relinquish or dismantle military capability, verified by UMA Optimistic Oracle by January 1, 2026, 11:12 AM UTC.",
      "close_at": "2025-12-31T20:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-01-01T11:12:23Z",
      "status": "closed",
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        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Hamas officially announces it will disarm in the Gaza Strip by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nOnly credible announcements, for example by the widely acknowledged leadership of Hamas, will qualify.\n\nFor the purposes of this market, \"disarm\" refers to a public commitment to relinquish or dismantle its military, whether partially or completely, in the Gaza Strip.\n\nAnnouncements of partial disarmament (e.g., surrendering a class of weapons or agreeing to disarm in stages or a certain region) will qualify as long as it is part of an acknowledged disarmament process.\n\nOnly official announcements will qualify. Informal statements, plans contingent on future conditions, statements of intent without a formal policy directive, or any other statements that do not constitute a formal policy announcement will not be considered.\n\nPrimary resolution sources will include official statements from Hamas leadership; however, a wide consensus of credible reporting confirming a policy of disarmament has been instituted will also qualify.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
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            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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        "score": 24,
        "caps": [
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        "applied_factors": 7
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      "last_price": 1,
      "implied_probability": 1,
      "price_as_of": null,
      "volume_24h_usd": null,
      "volume_total_usd": 1141374.498639,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "occurrence",
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      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
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      "question": "Will Hamas agree to disarm by December 31?",
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      "close_at": "2026-12-31T20:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-12-31T20:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
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        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Hamas officially announces it will disarm in the Gaza Strip by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nOnly credible announcements, for example by the widely acknowledged leadership of Hamas, will qualify.\n\nFor the purposes of this market, \"disarm\" refers to a public commitment to relinquish or dismantle its military, whether partially or completely, in the Gaza Strip.\n\nAnnouncements of partial disarmament (e.g., surrendering a class of weapons or agreeing to disarm in stages or a certain region) will qualify as long as it is part of an acknowledged disarmament process.\n\nOnly official announcements will qualify. Informal statements, plans contingent on future conditions, statements of intent without a formal policy directive, or any other statements that do not constitute a formal policy announcement will not be considered.\n\nPrimary resolution sources will include official statements from Hamas leadership; however, a wide consensus of credible reporting confirming a policy of disarmament has been instituted will also qualify.",
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      "last_price": 0.21,
      "implied_probability": 0.21,
      "price_as_of": "2026-09-06T06:00:48.475Z",
      "volume_24h_usd": 10232.896723000002,
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      "platform_market_id": "0xe253dbce3e4c4b635ff1986ad354cf5a138f34471f09b009884b0ff332235423",
      "question": "Will Hamas agree to disarm by November 30?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Hamas officially announces it will disarm in the Gaza Strip by November 30, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nOnly credible announcements, for example by the widely acknowledged leadership of Hamas, will qualify.\n\nFor the purposes of this market, \"disarm\" refers to a public commitment to relinquish or dismantle its military, whether partially or completely, in the Gaza Strip.\n\nAnnouncements of partial disarmament (e.g., surrendering a class of weapons or agreeing to disarm in stages or a certain region) will qualify as long as",
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      "underlying_reference": "November 30: Official public announcement by the referenced organization's widely acknowledged leadership of commitment to relinquish or dismantle military capability, verified by UMA Optimistic Oracle by January 1, 2026, 11:12 AM UTC.",
      "close_at": "2025-11-30T20:05:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2025-12-01T09:23:26Z",
      "status": "closed",
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        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Hamas officially announces it will disarm in the Gaza Strip by November 30, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nOnly credible announcements, for example by the widely acknowledged leadership of Hamas, will qualify.\n\nFor the purposes of this market, \"disarm\" refers to a public commitment to relinquish or dismantle its military, whether partially or completely, in the Gaza Strip.\n\nAnnouncements of partial disarmament (e.g., surrendering a class of weapons or agreeing to disarm in stages or a certain region) will qualify as long as it is part of an acknowledged disarmament process.\n\nOnly official announcements will qualify. Informal statements, plans contingent on future conditions, statements of intent without a formal policy directive, or any other statements that do not constitute a formal policy announcement will not be considered.\n\nPrimary resolution sources will include official statements from Hamas leadership; however, a wide consensus of credible reporting confirming a policy of disarmament has been instituted will also qualify.",
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        "score": 24,
        "caps": [
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        "applied_factors": 7
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      "last_price": 1,
      "implied_probability": 1,
      "price_as_of": null,
      "volume_24h_usd": null,
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      "settlement_style": "touch",
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      "tags": [
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    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-FW12BSFL08",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-NGWGHQ31H1",
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      "platform_market_id": "0x48d65cfb64a9351ff56ca2377041f9bf558ae4755991080694b254a64917345b",
      "question": "Will Hamas agree to disarm by March 31?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Hamas officially announces it will disarm in the Gaza Strip by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nOnly credible announcements, for example by the widely acknowledged leadership of Hamas, will qualify.\n\nFor the purposes of this market, \"disarm\" refers to a public commitment to relinquish or dismantle its military, whether partially or completely, in the Gaza Strip.\n\nAnnouncements of partial disarmament (e.g., surrendering a class of weapons or agreeing to disarm in stages or a certain region) will qualify as long as it",
      "contract_type": "binary",
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      "underlying_reference": "March 31, 2026: Official public announcement by the referenced organization's widely acknowledged leadership of commitment to relinquish or dismantle military capability, verified by UMA Optimistic Oracle by January 1, 2026, 11:12 AM UTC.",
      "close_at": "2026-03-31T20:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-04-01T10:02:55Z",
      "status": "closed",
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        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Hamas officially announces it will disarm in the Gaza Strip by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nOnly credible announcements, for example by the widely acknowledged leadership of Hamas, will qualify.\n\nFor the purposes of this market, \"disarm\" refers to a public commitment to relinquish or dismantle its military, whether partially or completely, in the Gaza Strip.\n\nAnnouncements of partial disarmament (e.g., surrendering a class of weapons or agreeing to disarm in stages or a certain region) will qualify as long as it is part of an acknowledged disarmament process.\n\nOnly official announcements will qualify. Informal statements, plans contingent on future conditions, statements of intent without a formal policy directive, or any other statements that do not constitute a formal policy announcement will not be considered.\n\nPrimary resolution sources will include official statements from Hamas leadership; however, a wide consensus of credible reporting confirming a policy of disarmament has been instituted will also qualify.",
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        "applied_factors": 7
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      "question": "Will Hamas agree to disarm by February 28?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Hamas officially announces it will disarm in the Gaza Strip by February 28, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nOnly credible announcements, for example by the widely acknowledged leadership of Hamas, will qualify.\n\nFor the purposes of this market, \"disarm\" refers to a public commitment to relinquish or dismantle its military, whether partially or completely, in the Gaza Strip.\n\nAnnouncements of partial disarmament (e.g., surrendering a class of weapons or agreeing to disarm in stages or a certain region) will qualify as long as",
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      "close_at": "2026-03-31T20:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-03-01T10:27:07Z",
      "status": "closed",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Hamas officially announces it will disarm in the Gaza Strip by February 28, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nOnly credible announcements, for example by the widely acknowledged leadership of Hamas, will qualify.\n\nFor the purposes of this market, \"disarm\" refers to a public commitment to relinquish or dismantle its military, whether partially or completely, in the Gaza Strip.\n\nAnnouncements of partial disarmament (e.g., surrendering a class of weapons or agreeing to disarm in stages or a certain region) will qualify as long as it is part of an acknowledged disarmament process.\n\nOnly official announcements will qualify. Informal statements, plans contingent on future conditions, statements of intent without a formal policy directive, or any other statements that do not constitute a formal policy announcement will not be considered.\n\nPrimary resolution sources will include official statements from Hamas leadership; however, a wide consensus of credible reporting confirming a policy of disarmament has been instituted will also qualify.",
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      "question": "Will Hamas agree to disarm by June 30?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Hamas officially announces it will disarm in the Gaza Strip by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nOnly credible announcements, for example by the widely acknowledged leadership of Hamas, will qualify.\n\nFor the purposes of this market, \"disarm\" refers to a public commitment to relinquish or dismantle its military, whether partially or completely, in the Gaza Strip.\n\nAnnouncements of partial disarmament (e.g., surrendering a class of weapons or agreeing to disarm in stages or a certain region) will qualify as long as it ",
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      "underlying_reference": "June 30, 2026: Official public announcement by the referenced organization's widely acknowledged leadership of commitment to relinquish or dismantle military capability, verified by UMA Optimistic Oracle by January 1, 2026, 11:12 AM UTC.",
      "close_at": "2026-06-30T20:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-07-03T04:17:11Z",
      "status": "closed",
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        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Hamas officially announces it will disarm in the Gaza Strip by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nOnly credible announcements, for example by the widely acknowledged leadership of Hamas, will qualify.\n\nFor the purposes of this market, \"disarm\" refers to a public commitment to relinquish or dismantle its military, whether partially or completely, in the Gaza Strip.\n\nAnnouncements of partial disarmament (e.g., surrendering a class of weapons or agreeing to disarm in stages or a certain region) will qualify as long as it is part of an acknowledged disarmament process.\n\nOnly official announcements will qualify. Informal statements, plans contingent on future conditions, statements of intent without a formal policy directive, or any other statements that do not constitute a formal policy announcement will not be considered.\n\nPrimary resolution sources will include official statements from Hamas leadership; however, a wide consensus of credible reporting confirming a policy of disarmament has been instituted will also qualify.",
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      "source": "platform_api",
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    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-6TMX1DZNL9",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "event_type": "status_change",
      "outcome": "closed",
      "resolved_at": "2026-03-01T10:27:07Z",
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      "market_id": "CM-MKT-PZVWPBHFJ9",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "event_type": "status_change",
      "outcome": "closed",
      "resolved_at": "2025-12-01T09:23:26Z",
      "deadline_at": null,
      "occurred_basis": "venue_settlement",
      "final_price": null,
      "recorded_at": "2026-07-06",
      "source": "platform_api",
      "source_ref": null
    }
  ],
  "_provenance": {
    "source": "clearmarket.fyi",
    "ref": "CM-EVT-NGWGHQ31H1",
    "terms": "Attribution required. clearmarket.fyi"
  }
}