{
  "_notice": {
    "type": "free_key_offer",
    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
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  "event_id": "CM-EVT-NGWGHQ31H1",
  "slug": "will-hamaz-disarm-by-december-31",
  "question": "Will Hamas agree to disarm by the end of this year?",
  "category": "geopolitics",
  "event_type": "BINARY",
  "ladder_distribution": null,
  "tags": [
    "geopolitics",
    "middle-east",
    "disarmament",
    "hamas",
    "israel-palestine",
    "2025"
  ],
  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "These markets track whether Hamas will publicly commit to disarmament by a series of sequential deadlines spanning late 2025 through mid-2026. Each contract resolves on an official public announcement by Hamas's widely acknowledged leadership, verified via Polymarket's UMA Optimistic Oracle. The deadline structure creates a natural probability term structure: nearer dates imply conditional urgency, later dates imply patience. The December 31, 2025 contract resolved at the January 1, 2026 timestamp per the authoritative resolve date.",
  "venues_covered": [
    "polymarket"
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  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-D7KJ0MDJX7",
  "current_primary_mark": {
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    "implied_probability": 1
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  "created_at": "2026-07-06T00:30:45.836226+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-07-06T00:30:45.836226+00:00",
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      "market_id": "CM-MKT-D7KJ0MDJX7",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-NGWGHQ31H1",
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      "platform_market_id": "0x11db077700a35d7415b6198c5e5a53adcf1db1819a09831f7eaf148f88243c40",
      "question": "Will Hamas agree to disarm by December 31?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Hamas officially announces it will disarm in the Gaza Strip by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nOnly credible announcements, for example by the widely acknowledged leadership of Hamas, will qualify.\n\nFor the purposes of this market, \"disarm\" refers to a public commitment to relinquish or dismantle its military, whether partially or completely, in the Gaza Strip.\n\nAnnouncements of partial disarmament (e.g., surrendering a class of weapons or agreeing to disarm in stages or a certain region) will qualify as long as",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "December 31: Official public announcement by the referenced organization's widely acknowledged leadership of commitment to relinquish or dismantle military capability, verified by UMA Optimistic Oracle by January 1, 2026, 11:12 AM UTC.",
      "close_at": "2025-12-31T20:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-01-01T11:12:23Z",
      "status": "closed",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Hamas officially announces it will disarm in the Gaza Strip by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nOnly credible announcements, for example by the widely acknowledged leadership of Hamas, will qualify.\n\nFor the purposes of this market, \"disarm\" refers to a public commitment to relinquish or dismantle its military, whether partially or completely, in the Gaza Strip.\n\nAnnouncements of partial disarmament (e.g., surrendering a class of weapons or agreeing to disarm in stages or a certain region) will qualify as long as it is part of an acknowledged disarmament process.\n\nOnly official announcements will qualify. Informal statements, plans contingent on future conditions, statements of intent without a formal policy directive, or any other statements that do not constitute a formal policy announcement will not be considered.\n\nPrimary resolution sources will include official statements from Hamas leadership; however, a wide consensus of credible reporting confirming a policy of disarmament has been instituted will also qualify.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": null,
        "sources": [
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            "name": "official statements from Hamas leadership",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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        "source_mechanism": null,
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        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_placeholder",
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      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 27,
        "caps": [
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          "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
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        "applied_factors": 7
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      "last_price": 1,
      "implied_probability": 1,
      "volume_24h_usd": null,
      "volume_total_usd": 1141374.498639,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "occurrence",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
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        "hamas",
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      "platform_market_id": "0xe253dbce3e4c4b635ff1986ad354cf5a138f34471f09b009884b0ff332235423",
      "question": "Will Hamas agree to disarm by November 30?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Hamas officially announces it will disarm in the Gaza Strip by November 30, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nOnly credible announcements, for example by the widely acknowledged leadership of Hamas, will qualify.\n\nFor the purposes of this market, \"disarm\" refers to a public commitment to relinquish or dismantle its military, whether partially or completely, in the Gaza Strip.\n\nAnnouncements of partial disarmament (e.g., surrendering a class of weapons or agreeing to disarm in stages or a certain region) will qualify as long as",
      "contract_type": "binary",
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      "underlying_reference": "November 30: Official public announcement by the referenced organization's widely acknowledged leadership of commitment to relinquish or dismantle military capability, verified by UMA Optimistic Oracle by January 1, 2026, 11:12 AM UTC.",
      "close_at": "2025-11-30T20:05:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2025-12-01T09:23:26Z",
      "status": "closed",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Hamas officially announces it will disarm in the Gaza Strip by November 30, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nOnly credible announcements, for example by the widely acknowledged leadership of Hamas, will qualify.\n\nFor the purposes of this market, \"disarm\" refers to a public commitment to relinquish or dismantle its military, whether partially or completely, in the Gaza Strip.\n\nAnnouncements of partial disarmament (e.g., surrendering a class of weapons or agreeing to disarm in stages or a certain region) will qualify as long as it is part of an acknowledged disarmament process.\n\nOnly official announcements will qualify. Informal statements, plans contingent on future conditions, statements of intent without a formal policy directive, or any other statements that do not constitute a formal policy announcement will not be considered.\n\nPrimary resolution sources will include official statements from Hamas leadership; however, a wide consensus of credible reporting confirming a policy of disarmament has been instituted will also qualify.",
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        "caps": [
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        "applied_factors": 7
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      "last_price": 1,
      "implied_probability": 1,
      "volume_24h_usd": null,
      "volume_total_usd": 173282.628964,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
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      "market_id": "CM-MKT-FW12BSFL08",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-NGWGHQ31H1",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x48d65cfb64a9351ff56ca2377041f9bf558ae4755991080694b254a64917345b",
      "question": "Will Hamas agree to disarm by March 31?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Hamas officially announces it will disarm in the Gaza Strip by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nOnly credible announcements, for example by the widely acknowledged leadership of Hamas, will qualify.\n\nFor the purposes of this market, \"disarm\" refers to a public commitment to relinquish or dismantle its military, whether partially or completely, in the Gaza Strip.\n\nAnnouncements of partial disarmament (e.g., surrendering a class of weapons or agreeing to disarm in stages or a certain region) will qualify as long as it",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "March 31, 2026: Official public announcement by the referenced organization's widely acknowledged leadership of commitment to relinquish or dismantle military capability, verified by UMA Optimistic Oracle by January 1, 2026, 11:12 AM UTC.",
      "close_at": "2026-03-31T20:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-04-01T10:02:55Z",
      "status": "closed",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Hamas officially announces it will disarm in the Gaza Strip by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nOnly credible announcements, for example by the widely acknowledged leadership of Hamas, will qualify.\n\nFor the purposes of this market, \"disarm\" refers to a public commitment to relinquish or dismantle its military, whether partially or completely, in the Gaza Strip.\n\nAnnouncements of partial disarmament (e.g., surrendering a class of weapons or agreeing to disarm in stages or a certain region) will qualify as long as it is part of an acknowledged disarmament process.\n\nOnly official announcements will qualify. Informal statements, plans contingent on future conditions, statements of intent without a formal policy directive, or any other statements that do not constitute a formal policy announcement will not be considered.\n\nPrimary resolution sources will include official statements from Hamas leadership; however, a wide consensus of credible reporting confirming a policy of disarmament has been instituted will also qualify.",
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      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 27,
        "caps": [
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          "adversarial_ground_truth",
          "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
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        "applied_factors": 7
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      "last_price": 0.002,
      "implied_probability": 0.002,
      "volume_24h_usd": null,
      "volume_total_usd": 274563.17174700013,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "occurrence",
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      "question_id": null,
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      "tags": [
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        "hamas",
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        "middle-east",
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      "eligibility_screens": null
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    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-P1PS5LX3J7",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-NGWGHQ31H1",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x2cd4df599867b14e835436e67e524cd04bbd67eaa6454c07b294d9dd0470e6b7",
      "question": "Will Hamas agree to disarm by June 30?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Hamas officially announces it will disarm in the Gaza Strip by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nOnly credible announcements, for example by the widely acknowledged leadership of Hamas, will qualify.\n\nFor the purposes of this market, \"disarm\" refers to a public commitment to relinquish or dismantle its military, whether partially or completely, in the Gaza Strip.\n\nAnnouncements of partial disarmament (e.g., surrendering a class of weapons or agreeing to disarm in stages or a certain region) will qualify as long as it ",
      "contract_type": "binary",
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      "underlying_reference": "June 30, 2026: Official public announcement by the referenced organization's widely acknowledged leadership of commitment to relinquish or dismantle military capability, verified by UMA Optimistic Oracle by January 1, 2026, 11:12 AM UTC.",
      "close_at": "2026-06-30T20:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-06-30T20:00:00Z",
      "status": "resolved",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Hamas officially announces it will disarm in the Gaza Strip by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nOnly credible announcements, for example by the widely acknowledged leadership of Hamas, will qualify.\n\nFor the purposes of this market, \"disarm\" refers to a public commitment to relinquish or dismantle its military, whether partially or completely, in the Gaza Strip.\n\nAnnouncements of partial disarmament (e.g., surrendering a class of weapons or agreeing to disarm in stages or a certain region) will qualify as long as it is part of an acknowledged disarmament process.\n\nOnly official announcements will qualify. Informal statements, plans contingent on future conditions, statements of intent without a formal policy directive, or any other statements that do not constitute a formal policy announcement will not be considered.\n\nPrimary resolution sources will include official statements from Hamas leadership; however, a wide consensus of credible reporting confirming a policy of disarmament has been instituted will also qualify.",
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        "score": 27,
        "caps": [
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        "applied_factors": 7
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      "last_price": 0,
      "implied_probability": 0,
      "volume_24h_usd": 10921.110047999997,
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      "tags": [
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      "market_id": "CM-MKT-6TMX1DZNL9",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-NGWGHQ31H1",
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      "platform_market_id": "0xc00af5f1dddbf5b3d97d941eaf7c9515ecd3503ef64644b347e379abe768d046",
      "question": "Will Hamas agree to disarm by February 28?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Hamas officially announces it will disarm in the Gaza Strip by February 28, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nOnly credible announcements, for example by the widely acknowledged leadership of Hamas, will qualify.\n\nFor the purposes of this market, \"disarm\" refers to a public commitment to relinquish or dismantle its military, whether partially or completely, in the Gaza Strip.\n\nAnnouncements of partial disarmament (e.g., surrendering a class of weapons or agreeing to disarm in stages or a certain region) will qualify as long as",
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      "close_at": "2026-03-31T20:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-03-01T10:27:07Z",
      "status": "closed",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Hamas officially announces it will disarm in the Gaza Strip by February 28, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nOnly credible announcements, for example by the widely acknowledged leadership of Hamas, will qualify.\n\nFor the purposes of this market, \"disarm\" refers to a public commitment to relinquish or dismantle its military, whether partially or completely, in the Gaza Strip.\n\nAnnouncements of partial disarmament (e.g., surrendering a class of weapons or agreeing to disarm in stages or a certain region) will qualify as long as it is part of an acknowledged disarmament process.\n\nOnly official announcements will qualify. Informal statements, plans contingent on future conditions, statements of intent without a formal policy directive, or any other statements that do not constitute a formal policy announcement will not be considered.\n\nPrimary resolution sources will include official statements from Hamas leadership; however, a wide consensus of credible reporting confirming a policy of disarmament has been instituted will also qualify.",
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        "applied_factors": 7
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      "tags": [
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      "market_id": "CM-MKT-P1PS5LX3J7",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "outcome": "NO",
      "resolved_at": "2026-06-30T20:00:00Z",
      "final_price": 0,
      "recorded_at": "2026-07-06",
      "source": "platform_api",
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      "platform": "polymarket",
      "outcome": "closed",
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      "market_id": "CM-MKT-6TMX1DZNL9",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "outcome": "closed",
      "resolved_at": "2026-03-01T10:27:07Z",
      "final_price": null,
      "recorded_at": "2026-07-06",
      "source": "platform_api",
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      "market_id": "CM-MKT-D7KJ0MDJX7",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "outcome": "closed",
      "resolved_at": "2026-01-01T11:12:23Z",
      "final_price": null,
      "recorded_at": "2026-07-06",
      "source": "platform_api",
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    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-PZVWPBHFJ9",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "outcome": "closed",
      "resolved_at": "2025-12-01T09:23:26Z",
      "final_price": null,
      "recorded_at": "2026-07-06",
      "source": "platform_api",
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    "ref": "CM-EVT-NGWGHQ31H1",
    "terms": "Attribution required. clearmarket.fyi"
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}