{
  "_notice": {
    "type": "free_key_offer",
    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
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  "event_id": "CM-EVT-7GZ9MLR1T6",
  "slug": "will-hezbollah-disarm-by-march-31",
  "question": "Will Hezbollah disarm by 2026?",
  "category": "geopolitics",
  "event_type": "BINARY",
  "ladder_distribution": null,
  "tags": [
    "hezbollah",
    "disarmament",
    "middle-east",
    "geopolitics",
    "lebanon",
    "2026"
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  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "These markets track whether Hezbollah fully disarms by three successive deadlines: March 31, April 30, and December 31, 2026. All three are binary outcome markets on the same underlying condition, creating a natural term structure of probability. Each resolves via Polymarket's UMA Optimistic Oracle. The March 31 deadline resolved on April 1, 2026; the remaining two deadlines extend exposure further along the timeline.",
  "venues_covered": [
    "polymarket"
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  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-YS36YVSHP7",
  "current_primary_mark": {
    "last_price": 0.09,
    "implied_probability": 0.09
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  "created_at": "2026-07-23T21:11:14.426158+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-07-23T21:11:14.426158+00:00",
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      "event_id": "CM-EVT-7GZ9MLR1T6",
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      "platform_market_id": "0xcfbe2de215f38407317a7ecfff4c13aa591eca2fe428fc203e5669a936009e78",
      "question": "Will Hezbollah disarm by March 31?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Hezbollah officially announces it will disarm in Lebanon by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nOnly announcements supported by the Secretary-General of Hezbollah (currently Naim Qassem), a direct successor, or, if the position of Secretary-General of Hezbollah is vacant, the widely acknowledged leadership of Hezbollah will qualify. \n\nFor the purposes of this market, \"disarm\" refers to a public commitment to relinquish or dismantle its military, whether partially or completely, in Lebanon.\n\nAnnouncements of partial dis",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "March 31: Resolution per the event's stated source and mechanism (subject supplied per market).",
      "close_at": "2026-03-31T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-04-01T07:54:21Z",
      "status": "closed",
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        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Hezbollah officially announces it will disarm in Lebanon by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nOnly announcements supported by the Secretary-General of Hezbollah (currently Naim Qassem), a direct successor, or, if the position of Secretary-General of Hezbollah is vacant, the widely acknowledged leadership of Hezbollah will qualify. \n\nFor the purposes of this market, \"disarm\" refers to a public commitment to relinquish or dismantle its military, whether partially or completely, in Lebanon.\n\nAnnouncements of partial disarmament (e.g., surrendering a class of weapons or agreeing to disarm in stages or a certain region) will qualify as long as it is part of an acknowledged disarmament process.\n\nOnly official announcements will qualify. Informal statements, plans contingent on future conditions, statements of intent without a formal policy directive, or any other statements that do not constitute a formal policy announcement will not be considered.\n\nPrimary resolution sources will include official statements from Hezbollah leadership; however, a wide consensus of credible reporting confirming a policy of disarmament has been instituted will also qualify.",
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        "source": null,
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      "volume_24h_usd": null,
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      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "occurrence",
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      "tags": [
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      "question": "Will Hezbollah disarm by December 31?",
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      "contract_type": "binary",
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      "underlying_reference": "December 31: Resolution per the event's stated source and mechanism (subject supplied per market).",
      "close_at": "2026-03-31T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-03-31T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
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        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Hezbollah officially announces it will disarm in Lebanon by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nOnly announcements supported by the Secretary-General of Hezbollah (currently Naim Qassem), a direct successor, or, if the position of Secretary-General of Hezbollah is vacant, the widely acknowledged leadership of Hezbollah will qualify. \n\nFor the purposes of this market, \"disarm\" refers to a public commitment to relinquish or dismantle its military, whether partially or completely, in Lebanon.\n\nAnnouncements of partial disarmament (e.g., surrendering a class of weapons or agreeing to disarm in stages or a certain region) will qualify as long as it is part of an acknowledged disarmament process.\n\nOnly official announcements will qualify. Informal statements, plans contingent on future conditions, statements of intent without a formal policy directive, or any other statements that do not constitute a formal policy announcement will not be considered.\n\nPrimary resolution sources will include official statements from Hezbollah leadership; however, a wide consensus of credible reporting confirming a policy of disarmament has been instituted will also qualify.",
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      "event_id": "CM-EVT-7GZ9MLR1T6",
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      "question": "Will Hezbollah disarm by April 30?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Hezbollah officially announces it will disarm in Lebanon by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nOnly announcements supported by the Secretary-General of Hezbollah (currently Naim Qassem), a direct successor, or, if the position of Secretary-General of Hezbollah is vacant, the widely acknowledged leadership of Hezbollah will qualify. \n\nFor the purposes of this market, \"disarm\" refers to a public commitment to relinquish or dismantle its military, whether partially or completely, in Lebanon.\n\nAnnouncements of partial dis",
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      "underlying_reference": "April 30: Resolution per the event's stated source and mechanism (subject supplied per market).",
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      "resolve_at": "2026-05-01T06:46:50Z",
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      "tags": [
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