{
  "_notice": {
    "type": "free_key_offer",
    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
  },
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-6VRDCMX960",
  "slug": "will-hotstuff-launch-a-token-by",
  "question": "Will Hotstuff launch a token by 2026?",
  "category": "crypto",
  "event_type": "BINARY",
  "ladder_distribution": null,
  "tags": [
    "crypto",
    "token-launch",
    "hotstuff",
    "2026",
    "defi-infrastructure"
  ],
  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "These markets track whether Hotstuff will launch a token across seven sequential deadline tranches, from June 30, 2026 through December 31, 2027. Each tranche is a binary outcome; earlier deadlines imply higher uncertainty, later ones accumulate probability. All seven resolve via Polymarket's UMA Optimistic Oracle. No single authoritative publisher is specified; resolution depends on verifiable public evidence of a token launch at each cutoff.",
  "venues_covered": [
    "polymarket"
  ],
  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-C9BD85JQ92",
  "current_primary_mark": {
    "last_price": 0.19,
    "implied_probability": 0.19
  },
  "created_at": "2026-07-23T21:11:14.426158+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-07-23T21:11:14.426158+00:00",
  "markets": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-MR5MW603S6",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-6VRDCMX960",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0xf5f3083451ae53d23cd4fee7f7f1bffbc632d3cf699fe37054621b8c666a2f52",
      "question": "Will Hotstuff launch a token by June 30, 2026?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Hotstuff officially launches a token by 11:59 PM ET on the date specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nOnly an official token launched by Hotstuff will qualify. Stablecoins, memecoins, LSTs and synthetic tokens will not count.\n\nThe token must be actively and publicly tradable. Announcements alone do not qualify.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be information from Hotstuff (https://x.com/tradehotstuff), however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "June 30, 2026: Resolution per the event's stated source and mechanism (subject supplied per market).",
      "close_at": "2026-07-01T03:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-07-01T10:42:55Z",
      "status": "closed",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Hotstuff officially launches a token by 11:59 PM ET on the date specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nOnly an official token launched by Hotstuff will qualify. Stablecoins, memecoins, LSTs and synthetic tokens will not count.\n\nThe token must be actively and publicly tradable. Announcements alone do not qualify.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be information from Hotstuff (https://x.com/tradehotstuff), however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": "https://x.com/tradehotstuff",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "x.com",
            "url": "https://x.com/tradehotstuff",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Hotstuff (https://x.com/tradehotstuff)",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
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      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 37,
        "caps": [
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        "applied_factors": 7
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      "last_price": 0.001,
      "implied_probability": 0.001,
      "volume_24h_usd": null,
      "volume_total_usd": 3756.648064999999,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "occurrence",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": "CMX-0A4DD62A0D",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "hotstuff",
        "launch",
        "token"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-HB6VRK4V18",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-6VRDCMX960",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x3386de8240fc2f18e595848020591210acff7c2ac7cd4275b4b823d569201819",
      "question": "Will Hotstuff launch a token by September 30, 2026?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Hotstuff officially launches a token by 11:59 PM ET on the date specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nOnly an official token launched by Hotstuff will qualify. Stablecoins, memecoins, LSTs and synthetic tokens will not count.\n\nThe token must be actively and publicly tradable. Announcements alone do not qualify.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be information from Hotstuff (https://x.com/tradehotstuff), however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "September 30, 2026: Resolution per the event's stated source and mechanism (subject supplied per market).",
      "close_at": "2026-10-01T03:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-10-01T03:59:00Z",
      "status": "closed",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Hotstuff officially launches a token by 11:59 PM ET on the date specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nOnly an official token launched by Hotstuff will qualify. Stablecoins, memecoins, LSTs and synthetic tokens will not count.\n\nThe token must be actively and publicly tradable. Announcements alone do not qualify.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be information from Hotstuff (https://x.com/tradehotstuff), however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": "https://x.com/tradehotstuff",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "x.com",
            "url": "https://x.com/tradehotstuff",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Hotstuff (https://x.com/tradehotstuff)",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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      "rcg": {
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        "caps": [
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        "applied_factors": 7
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      "volume_24h_usd": null,
      "volume_total_usd": null,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "occurrence",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": "CMX-F4088B6A4D",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "hotstuff",
        "launch",
        "token"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-13P9Z00FN7",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-6VRDCMX960",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0xad291581cee6ee6a7ac99cc41426ec9b02ed5ebaaf6dce946ea15210dc224eff",
      "question": "Will Hotstuff launch a token by December 31, 2026?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Hotstuff officially launches a token by 11:59 PM ET on the date specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nOnly an official token launched by Hotstuff will qualify. Stablecoins, memecoins, LSTs and synthetic tokens will not count.\n\nThe token must be actively and publicly tradable. Announcements alone do not qualify.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be information from Hotstuff (https://x.com/tradehotstuff), however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "December 31, 2026: Resolution per the event's stated source and mechanism (subject supplied per market).",
      "close_at": "2027-01-01T04:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-01-01T04:59:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Hotstuff officially launches a token by 11:59 PM ET on the date specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nOnly an official token launched by Hotstuff will qualify. Stablecoins, memecoins, LSTs and synthetic tokens will not count.\n\nThe token must be actively and publicly tradable. Announcements alone do not qualify.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be information from Hotstuff (https://x.com/tradehotstuff), however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": "https://x.com/tradehotstuff",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "x.com",
            "url": "https://x.com/tradehotstuff",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Hotstuff (https://x.com/tradehotstuff)",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "consensus of credible reporting",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": null,
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        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_placeholder",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 37,
        "caps": [
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          "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 7
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      "last_price": 0.13,
      "implied_probability": 0.13,
      "volume_24h_usd": null,
      "volume_total_usd": 4026.159850999999,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "occurrence",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": "CMX-406677FAA5",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "hotstuff",
        "launch",
        "token"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-DKS7C71WY5",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-6VRDCMX960",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x216e6e4aa1bc2d59437262b7d454c74e72e641a4d611df63f54f88bfda1380e1",
      "question": "Will Hotstuff launch a token by March 31, 2027?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Hotstuff officially launches a token by 11:59 PM ET on the date specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nOnly an official token launched by Hotstuff will qualify. Stablecoins, memecoins, LSTs and synthetic tokens will not count.\n\nThe token must be actively and publicly tradable. Announcements alone do not qualify.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be information from Hotstuff (https://x.com/tradehotstuff), however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "March 31, 2027: Resolution per the event's stated source and mechanism (subject supplied per market).",
      "close_at": "2027-04-01T03:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-04-01T03:59:00Z",
      "status": "closed",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Hotstuff officially launches a token by 11:59 PM ET on the date specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nOnly an official token launched by Hotstuff will qualify. Stablecoins, memecoins, LSTs and synthetic tokens will not count.\n\nThe token must be actively and publicly tradable. Announcements alone do not qualify.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be information from Hotstuff (https://x.com/tradehotstuff), however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": "https://x.com/tradehotstuff",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "x.com",
            "url": "https://x.com/tradehotstuff",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Hotstuff (https://x.com/tradehotstuff)",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "consensus of credible reporting",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": null,
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_placeholder",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 37,
        "caps": [
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          "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 7
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      "last_price": null,
      "implied_probability": null,
      "volume_24h_usd": null,
      "volume_total_usd": null,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "occurrence",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": "CMX-68DBB452BF",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "hotstuff",
        "launch",
        "token"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-C9BD85JQ92",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-6VRDCMX960",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x8fe50f0994b8106800ce5332271087007efa9ba8a356b5d4c0f2f81dfda0a8ca",
      "question": "Will Hotstuff launch a token by June 30, 2027?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Hotstuff officially launches a token by 11:59 PM ET on the date specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nOnly an official token launched by Hotstuff will qualify. Stablecoins, memecoins, LSTs and synthetic tokens will not count.\n\nThe token must be actively and publicly tradable. Announcements alone do not qualify.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be information from Hotstuff (https://x.com/tradehotstuff), however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "June 30, 2027: Resolution per the event's stated source and mechanism (subject supplied per market).",
      "close_at": "2027-07-01T03:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-07-01T03:59:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Hotstuff officially launches a token by 11:59 PM ET on the date specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nOnly an official token launched by Hotstuff will qualify. Stablecoins, memecoins, LSTs and synthetic tokens will not count.\n\nThe token must be actively and publicly tradable. Announcements alone do not qualify.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be information from Hotstuff (https://x.com/tradehotstuff), however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": "https://x.com/tradehotstuff",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "x.com",
            "url": "https://x.com/tradehotstuff",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Hotstuff (https://x.com/tradehotstuff)",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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        "source_of_record": null,
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        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
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      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 37,
        "caps": [
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          "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 7
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      "last_price": 0.19,
      "implied_probability": 0.19,
      "volume_24h_usd": null,
      "volume_total_usd": 4357.392022,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "occurrence",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": "CMX-2C39FC6033",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "hotstuff",
        "launch",
        "token"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-RWCP74LV29",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-6VRDCMX960",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0xa6f8478164d3d0779e7acf612aeb8461ff6421c091fb4940b0af1b2973a2101d",
      "question": "Will Hotstuff launch a token by September 30, 2027?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Hotstuff officially launches a token by 11:59 PM ET on the date specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nOnly an official token launched by Hotstuff will qualify. Stablecoins, memecoins, LSTs and synthetic tokens will not count.\n\nThe token must be actively and publicly tradable. Announcements alone do not qualify.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be information from Hotstuff (https://x.com/tradehotstuff), however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "September 30, 2027: Resolution per the event's stated source and mechanism (subject supplied per market).",
      "close_at": "2027-10-01T03:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-10-01T03:59:00Z",
      "status": "closed",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Hotstuff officially launches a token by 11:59 PM ET on the date specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nOnly an official token launched by Hotstuff will qualify. Stablecoins, memecoins, LSTs and synthetic tokens will not count.\n\nThe token must be actively and publicly tradable. Announcements alone do not qualify.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be information from Hotstuff (https://x.com/tradehotstuff), however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": "https://x.com/tradehotstuff",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "x.com",
            "url": "https://x.com/tradehotstuff",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Hotstuff (https://x.com/tradehotstuff)",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "consensus of credible reporting",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": null,
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        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
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      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 37,
        "caps": [
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        ],
        "applied_factors": 7
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      "last_price": null,
      "implied_probability": null,
      "volume_24h_usd": null,
      "volume_total_usd": null,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "occurrence",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": "CMX-8BC1DE9356",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "hotstuff",
        "launch",
        "token"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-LCC9T6KK60",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-6VRDCMX960",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0xdf3a4b4a1b6567283265969796c0d739003f3c444366c3f2629b8fc202bf035d",
      "question": "Will Hotstuff launch a token by December 31, 2027?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Hotstuff officially launches a token by 11:59 PM ET on the date specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nOnly an official token launched by Hotstuff will qualify. Stablecoins, memecoins, LSTs and synthetic tokens will not count.\n\nThe token must be actively and publicly tradable. Announcements alone do not qualify.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be information from Hotstuff (https://x.com/tradehotstuff), however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "December 31, 2027: Resolution per the event's stated source and mechanism (subject supplied per market).",
      "close_at": "2028-01-01T04:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2028-01-01T04:59:00Z",
      "status": "closed",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Hotstuff officially launches a token by 11:59 PM ET on the date specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nOnly an official token launched by Hotstuff will qualify. Stablecoins, memecoins, LSTs and synthetic tokens will not count.\n\nThe token must be actively and publicly tradable. Announcements alone do not qualify.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be information from Hotstuff (https://x.com/tradehotstuff), however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": "https://x.com/tradehotstuff",
        "sources": [
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            "name": "x.com",
            "url": "https://x.com/tradehotstuff",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "Hotstuff (https://x.com/tradehotstuff)",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
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            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
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      "rcg": {
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        "score": 37,
        "caps": [
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        ],
        "applied_factors": 7
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      "last_price": null,
      "implied_probability": null,
      "volume_24h_usd": null,
      "volume_total_usd": null,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "occurrence",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": "CMX-426F4257CB",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "hotstuff",
        "launch",
        "token"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    }
  ],
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