{
  "_notice": {
    "type": "free_key_offer",
    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
  },
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-WYDWH2R3C9",
  "slug": "will-iran-hold-a-presidential-election-by-june-30",
  "question": "Will Iran hold a presidential election by the end of 2026?",
  "category": "geopolitics",
  "event_type": "BINARY",
  "ladder_distribution": null,
  "tags": [
    "geopolitics",
    "politics",
    "iran",
    "elections",
    "2026",
    "middle-east"
  ],
  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "Both markets ask whether Iran holds a presidential election within distinct deadlines in 2026. The June 30 market prices near-term electoral probability; the December 31 market prices the full-year window. The structural difference is deadline horizon: one prices a six-month binary, the other a twelve-month binary. Both resolve via Polymarket's UMA Optimistic Oracle.",
  "venues_covered": [
    "polymarket"
  ],
  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-HDXXL8WVC3",
  "current_primary_mark": {
    "last_price": 0.001,
    "implied_probability": 0.001,
    "as_of": null
  },
  "created_at": "2026-08-04T20:03:51.865287+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-08-04T20:03:51.865287+00:00",
  "markets": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-D092B76PR0",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-WYDWH2R3C9",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0xddc7ae1e29925740e89075cb0ef8cfd2a3261ac837f9cf89e86c834942ba0639",
      "question": "Will Iran hold a presidential election by December 31?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if an Iranian presidential election is officially held by December 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nThis market will resolve immediately upon the official confirmation that voting in the presidential election has taken place. \n\nAny announcement of an election date will not be sufficient for a positive resolution.\n\nAllegations, criticisms, or disputes regarding the fairness, legitimacy, or conduct of the election, as well as any protests, annulments, investigations, or other subsequent events occurring after voting has taken place, will n",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "December 31: Resolution per the event's stated source and mechanism (subject supplied per market).",
      "close_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if an Iranian presidential election is officially held by December 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nThis market will resolve immediately upon the official confirmation that voting in the presidential election has taken place. \n\nAny announcement of an election date will not be sufficient for a positive resolution.\n\nAllegations, criticisms, or disputes regarding the fairness, legitimacy, or conduct of the election, as well as any protests, annulments, investigations, or other subsequent events occurring after voting has taken place, will not be considered in determining this market’s resolution.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": null,
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "official information from the government of Iran",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "a consensus of credible reporting",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
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        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_placeholder",
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      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 51,
        "caps": [
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          "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
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        "applied_factors": 7
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      "last_price": 0.18,
      "implied_probability": 0.18,
      "price_as_of": "2026-09-02T21:00:40.708Z",
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 198.63452500000002,
      "settlement_style": "occurrence",
      "direction": "occurrence",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "election",
        "iran",
        "iran presidential election",
        "politics"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-HDXXL8WVC3",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-WYDWH2R3C9",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0xfacf7578441650ec19a86bf2d9c264744bb9180f80ad603c65204aa203bd1755",
      "question": "Will Iran hold a presidential election by June 30?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if an Iranian presidential election is officially held by June 30, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nThis market will resolve immediately upon the official confirmation that voting in the presidential election has taken place. \n\nAny announcement of an election date will not be sufficient for a positive resolution.\n\nAllegations, criticisms, or disputes regarding the fairness, legitimacy, or conduct of the election, as well as any protests, annulments, investigations, or other subsequent events occurring after voting has taken place, will not b",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "June 30: Resolution per the event's stated source and mechanism (subject supplied per market).",
      "close_at": "2026-06-30T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-07-01T08:01:49Z",
      "status": "closed",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if an Iranian presidential election is officially held by June 30, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nThis market will resolve immediately upon the official confirmation that voting in the presidential election has taken place. \n\nAny announcement of an election date will not be sufficient for a positive resolution.\n\nAllegations, criticisms, or disputes regarding the fairness, legitimacy, or conduct of the election, as well as any protests, annulments, investigations, or other subsequent events occurring after voting has taken place, will not be considered in determining this market’s resolution.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": null,
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "official information from the government of Iran",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "a consensus of credible reporting",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": null,
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        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
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      "rcg": {
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        "score": 51,
        "caps": [
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          "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 7
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      "last_price": 0.001,
      "implied_probability": 0.001,
      "price_as_of": null,
      "volume_24h_usd": null,
      "volume_total_usd": 767213.8048210031,
      "settlement_style": "occurrence",
      "direction": "occurrence",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "election",
        "iran",
        "iran presidential election",
        "politics"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    }
  ],
  "resolution_log": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-HDXXL8WVC3",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "event_type": "status_change",
      "outcome": "closed",
      "resolved_at": "2026-07-01T08:01:49Z",
      "deadline_at": null,
      "occurred_basis": "venue_settlement",
      "final_price": null,
      "recorded_at": "2026-07-23",
      "source": "platform_api",
      "source_ref": null
    }
  ],
  "_provenance": {
    "source": "clearmarket.fyi",
    "ref": "CM-EVT-WYDWH2R3C9",
    "terms": "Attribution required. clearmarket.fyi"
  }
}