{
  "_notice": {
    "type": "free_key_offer",
    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
  },
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-LF6L9TFJD0",
  "slug": "will-iran-legalize-gay-marriage",
  "question": "Will Iran legalize gay marriage by 2026?",
  "category": "geopolitics",
  "event_type": "BINARY",
  "ladder_distribution": null,
  "tags": [
    "politics",
    "geopolitics",
    "lgbtq-rights",
    "iran",
    "legal-reform",
    "2026"
  ],
  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "This market tracks whether Iran's government will legalize same-sex marriage by December 31, 2026. Legalization requires a law, constitutional amendment, or binding judicial decision from Iranian authorities. Resolution follows Polymarket's UMA Optimistic Oracle against that official government action standard. Implied probability trades near zero given Iran's current legal and constitutional framework.",
  "venues_covered": [
    "polymarket"
  ],
  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-KR8LW8STX8",
  "current_primary_mark": {
    "last_price": 0.022,
    "implied_probability": 0.022
  },
  "created_at": "2026-07-23T21:11:14.426158+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-07-23T21:11:14.426158+00:00",
  "markets": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-KR8LW8STX8",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-LF6L9TFJD0",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0xb0a9e9c70cd5bff7feb2b7038ff7e37412b07a8bcfc2e4aff1568aff77641cc4",
      "question": "Will Iran legalize gay marriage?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if the government of Iran legally recognizes marriage between two people of the same sex anywhere within Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nLegal recognition refers to any law, constitutional amendment, or binding judicial decision that allows two adults of the same sex to marry with the same legal status as opposite-sex marriages under Iranian law.\n\nRecognition must apply within Iran’s legal system and permit same-sex couples to enter a legally valid marriage recognized by Iranian civil or religious authoriti",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "Iran's government announces or implements a law, constitutional amendment, or binding judicial decision legalizing same-sex marriage by December 31, 2026.",
      "close_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if the government of Iran legally recognizes marriage between two people of the same sex anywhere within Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nLegal recognition refers to any law, constitutional amendment, or binding judicial decision that allows two adults of the same sex to marry with the same legal status as opposite-sex marriages under Iranian law.\n\nRecognition must apply within Iran’s legal system and permit same-sex couples to enter a legally valid marriage recognized by Iranian civil or religious authorities. The recognition must be in force by the listed deadline.\n\nThe legalization of civil unions, domestic partnerships, or other forms of limited recognition that do not grant the legal status of marriage will not qualify.\n\nRecognition of marriages performed abroad without permitting such marriages to be performed within Iran will not qualify.\n\nThe primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": null,
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "a consensus of credible reporting",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": null,
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_placeholder",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 26,
        "caps": [
          "adversarial_ground_truth",
          "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.022,
      "implied_probability": 0.022,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0,
      "volume_total_usd": 63250.9240829999,
      "settlement_style": "occurrence",
      "direction": "occurrence",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "iran",
        "iran gay marriage",
        "legal",
        "lgbtq"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    }
  ],
  "resolution_log": [],
  "_provenance": {
    "source": "clearmarket.fyi",
    "ref": "CM-EVT-LF6L9TFJD0",
    "terms": "Attribution required. clearmarket.fyi"
  }
}