{
  "_notice": {
    "type": "free_key_offer",
    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
  },
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-BR5SMCCW00",
  "slug": "will-iran-withdraw-from-the-npt-before-2027",
  "question": "Will Iran withdraw from the NPT before 2027?",
  "category": "geopolitics",
  "event_type": "BINARY",
  "ladder_distribution": null,
  "tags": [
    "geopolitics",
    "iran",
    "nuclear-policy",
    "international-treaties",
    "2026",
    "middle-east"
  ],
  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "This market tracks whether Iran will formally notify the United Nations of its withdrawal from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty before 2027. Resolution relies on credible news reporting of a written notification, verified through Polymarket's UMA Optimistic Oracle. The NPT requires 90 days notice to the UN Security Council; no such notification has been filed as of April 2026. The single binary market prices outcome only, leaving no continuous probability distribution across withdrawal timing.",
  "venues_covered": [
    "polymarket"
  ],
  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-BCZ74YH7N3",
  "current_primary_mark": {
    "last_price": 0.169,
    "implied_probability": 0.169
  },
  "created_at": "2026-07-06T00:30:45.836226+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-07-06T00:30:45.836226+00:00",
  "markets": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-BCZ74YH7N3",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-BR5SMCCW00",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x3e0845c4736ae232c57b347d05f6145650416dfd3adb0fa5d7ddd335c64a84ca",
      "question": "Will Iran withdraw from the NPT before 2027?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the Islamic Republic of Iran formally notifies the United Nations of its decision to withdraw from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), pursuant to Article X of the treaty by December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No.\"\n\nTo qualify, the Iranian government must issue an official written notice that explicitly states its intention to withdraw under Article X of the NPT.\n\nThe resolution sources for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.\n",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "Credible news reporting of Iran's formal written notification to the United Nations of its withdrawal from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty pursuant to Article X.",
      "close_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the Islamic Republic of Iran formally notifies the United Nations of its decision to withdraw from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), pursuant to Article X of the treaty by December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No.\"\n\nTo qualify, the Iranian government must issue an official written notice that explicitly states its intention to withdraw under Article X of the NPT.\n\nThe resolution sources for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.\n",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": null,
        "sources": null,
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": null,
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_placeholder",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 40,
        "caps": [
          "multi_source_no_conflict_rule",
          "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 7
      },
      "last_price": 0.169,
      "implied_probability": 0.169,
      "volume_24h_usd": 11038.608542999998,
      "volume_total_usd": 291424.5201209996,
      "settlement_style": "occurrence",
      "direction": "occurrence",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "geopolitics",
        "iran",
        "iran npt withdrawal",
        "nonproliferation",
        "npt"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    }
  ],
  "resolution_log": [],
  "_provenance": {
    "source": "clearmarket.fyi",
    "ref": "CM-EVT-BR5SMCCW00",
    "terms": "Attribution required. clearmarket.fyi"
  }
}