{
  "_notice": {
    "type": "free_key_offer",
    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
  },
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-V6DP4NW6X0",
  "slug": "will-israel-reopen-its-embassy-in-iran-in-2026",
  "question": "Will Israel reopen its embassy in Iran by 2026?",
  "category": "geopolitics",
  "event_type": "BINARY",
  "ladder_distribution": null,
  "tags": [
    "geopolitics",
    "israel-iran-relations",
    "diplomatic-reopening",
    "middle-east",
    "2026"
  ],
  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "This market tracks whether Israel will reopen a diplomatic mission in Iran before December 31, 2026. Polymarket prices a binary yes/no outcome resolved via Polymarket's UMA Optimistic Oracle. Resolution requires an official Israeli government announcement confirming embassy or consulate reopening. No Israeli diplomatic presence in Iran has existed since 1979, making this a low-probability tail event.",
  "venues_covered": [
    "polymarket"
  ],
  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-ZV4KM6NHT2",
  "current_primary_mark": {
    "last_price": 0.045,
    "implied_probability": 0.045
  },
  "created_at": "2026-07-06T00:30:45.836226+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-07-06T00:30:45.836226+00:00",
  "markets": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-ZV4KM6NHT2",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-V6DP4NW6X0",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0xc298e10d0f16a83e58cb9e7ccce729bdd36f1ea39f1c1336dc71e3b98f5a3258",
      "question": "Will Israel reopen its embassy in Iran in 2026?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the Israeli government announces the reopening/opening of any embassy or consulate in Iran, or if such a reopening/opening is otherwise confirmed, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nAn official announcement made within this market’s timeframe will qualify for a \"Yes\" resolution regardless of whether an actual embassy or consulate opening subsequently takes place within the timeframe.\n\nAny opening of an Israeli embassy or consulate in Iran will qualify regardless of its exact location.\n\nAnnouncements that do not ",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "UMA Optimistic Oracle resolves based on Israeli government announcement or confirmation of embassy or consulate reopening in Iran by December 31, 2026.",
      "close_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the Israeli government announces the reopening/opening of any embassy or consulate in Iran, or if such a reopening/opening is otherwise confirmed, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nAn official announcement made within this market’s timeframe will qualify for a \"Yes\" resolution regardless of whether an actual embassy or consulate opening subsequently takes place within the timeframe.\n\nAny opening of an Israeli embassy or consulate in Iran will qualify regardless of its exact location.\n\nAnnouncements that do not clearly commit to opening an embassy or consulate, such as general diplomatic statements, exploratory comments, or partial/conditional steps, will not count.\n\nThe resolution source will be official statements from the Government of Israel; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": null,
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "official statements from the Government of Israel",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "a consensus of credible reporting",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": null,
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_placeholder",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 52,
        "caps": [
          "multi_source_no_conflict_rule",
          "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 7
      },
      "last_price": 0.045,
      "implied_probability": 0.045,
      "volume_24h_usd": 12,
      "volume_total_usd": 190386.3328090003,
      "settlement_style": "occurrence",
      "direction": "occurrence",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "diplomacy",
        "embassy",
        "iran",
        "israel",
        "israel embassy iran"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    }
  ],
  "resolution_log": [],
  "_provenance": {
    "source": "clearmarket.fyi",
    "ref": "CM-EVT-V6DP4NW6X0",
    "terms": "Attribution required. clearmarket.fyi"
  }
}