{
  "_notice": {
    "type": "free_key_offer",
    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
  },
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-PHX9CWYQ02",
  "slug": "will-jp-morgan-jpm-q2-investment-banking-fees-be-above",
  "question": "JP Morgan Q2 investment banking fees, July 14, 2026",
  "category": "financials",
  "event_type": "LADDER",
  "ladder_distribution": {
    "direction": "above",
    "implied_band": [
      3.15,
      null
    ],
    "strikes": [
      {
        "threshold": 2.55,
        "prob": 100
      },
      {
        "threshold": 2.7,
        "prob": 100
      },
      {
        "threshold": 2.85,
        "prob": 100
      },
      {
        "threshold": 3,
        "prob": 100
      },
      {
        "threshold": 3.15,
        "prob": 100
      }
    ]
  },
  "tags": [
    "financials",
    "jpm-earnings",
    "investment-banking",
    "q2-2026",
    "financial-services",
    "revenue-threshold"
  ],
  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "These markets track JPMorgan Chase's Q2 2026 investment banking fee revenue against five discrete strike thresholds. Polymarket prices binary outcomes at $2.55B, $2.70B, $2.85B, $3.00B, and $3.15B; together they imply a probability distribution over the fee range. JPMorgan's official Q2 2026 earnings materials, released by July 14, 2026, serve as the authoritative source. Resolution follows Polymarket's UMA Optimistic Oracle protocol across all five contracts.",
  "venues_covered": [
    "polymarket"
  ],
  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-D131CY7RM6",
  "current_primary_mark": {
    "last_price": 1,
    "implied_probability": 1
  },
  "created_at": "2026-07-06T00:30:45.836226+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-07-06T00:30:45.836226+00:00",
  "markets": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-FRY2ZSVVQ5",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-PHX9CWYQ02",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0xb7305d12270fd885f5095ecfff4b17c989231c3df4842d89a609053c4cb2fba6",
      "question": "Will JP Morgan (JPM) Q2 investment banking fees be above $2.55B?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if JP Morgan's investment banking fees for the upcoming second fiscal quarter, as reported in its official company earnings materials, is above the listed amount. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nThe specified metric will be considered as reported in the company's official earnings materials. Subsequent revisions will not be considered.\n\nIf the specified company's official earnings materials for the specified quarter are released, and the specified metric is not included, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nIf the specified company does not release",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "$2.55B: The listed company's official Q2 2026 earnings materials, released by July 14, 2026, determine investment banking fee amounts; absence of the metric resolves to No.",
      "close_at": "2026-07-14T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-07-14T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "resolved",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if JP Morgan's investment banking fees for the upcoming second fiscal quarter, as reported in its official company earnings materials, is above the listed amount. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nThe specified metric will be considered as reported in the company's official earnings materials. Subsequent revisions will not be considered.\n\nIf the specified company's official earnings materials for the specified quarter are released, and the specified metric is not included, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nIf the specified company does not release quarterly earnings materials for the specified quarter by August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nIf the specified metric is reported as a range rather than a specific number, the midpoint of the range will be used for resolution of this market.\n\nThe resolution source for this market is JP Morgan's official company earnings materials, including press releases, investor presentations, and regulatory filings. If the specified metric is not reported in these materials, recordings or transcripts of the company's earnings webcast may also be used.\n\nNote: This market will resolve based on the most numerically precise version of the specified metric reported in the company's official earnings materials. Only the specified metric will be considered; alternate versions that differ in definition or scope from the specified metric will not be considered.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": null,
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "JP Morgan's official company earnings materials, including press releases, investor presentations, and regulatory filings",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "recordings or transcripts of the company's earnings webcast",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "JP Morgan's official company earnings materials",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 84,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 1,
      "implied_probability": 1,
      "volume_24h_usd": 61.53,
      "volume_total_usd": 5417.236644999998,
      "settlement_style": "terminal",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 2.55,
      "question_id": "CMX-30CE17B054",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "fees",
        "investment banking",
        "jp morgan q2",
        "jpm",
        "q2"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-R8N3Z183M5",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-PHX9CWYQ02",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0xcaae0b6d7f0ee3c302cc734fff5f92c440bcf7fa61c1d03b058659c0f45c6668",
      "question": "Will JP Morgan (JPM) Q2 investment banking fees be above $2.85B?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if JP Morgan's investment banking fees for the upcoming second fiscal quarter, as reported in its official company earnings materials, is above the listed amount. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nThe specified metric will be considered as reported in the company's official earnings materials. Subsequent revisions will not be considered.\n\nIf the specified company's official earnings materials for the specified quarter are released, and the specified metric is not included, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nIf the specified company does not release",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "$2.85B: The listed company's official Q2 2026 earnings materials, released by July 14, 2026, determine investment banking fee amounts; absence of the metric resolves to No.",
      "close_at": "2026-07-14T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-07-14T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "resolved",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if JP Morgan's investment banking fees for the upcoming second fiscal quarter, as reported in its official company earnings materials, is above the listed amount. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nThe specified metric will be considered as reported in the company's official earnings materials. Subsequent revisions will not be considered.\n\nIf the specified company's official earnings materials for the specified quarter are released, and the specified metric is not included, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nIf the specified company does not release quarterly earnings materials for the specified quarter by August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nIf the specified metric is reported as a range rather than a specific number, the midpoint of the range will be used for resolution of this market.\n\nThe resolution source for this market is JP Morgan's official company earnings materials, including press releases, investor presentations, and regulatory filings. If the specified metric is not reported in these materials, recordings or transcripts of the company's earnings webcast may also be used.\n\nNote: This market will resolve based on the most numerically precise version of the specified metric reported in the company's official earnings materials. Only the specified metric will be considered; alternate versions that differ in definition or scope from the specified metric will not be considered.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": null,
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "JP Morgan's official company earnings materials, including press releases, investor presentations, and regulatory filings",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "recordings or transcripts of the company's earnings webcast",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "JP Morgan's official company earnings materials",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 84,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 1,
      "implied_probability": 1,
      "volume_24h_usd": 2.82,
      "volume_total_usd": 5819.385464999997,
      "settlement_style": "terminal",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 2.85,
      "question_id": "CMX-44F4991338",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "fees",
        "investment banking",
        "jp morgan q2",
        "jpm",
        "q2"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-D131CY7RM6",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-PHX9CWYQ02",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0xc868f0d9fe9cf9dcc5f75582efe7027efaaeef5f582b325528758f199754d4c7",
      "question": "Will JP Morgan (JPM) Q2 investment banking fees be above $3.15B?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if JP Morgan's investment banking fees for the upcoming second fiscal quarter, as reported in its official company earnings materials, is above the listed amount. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nThe specified metric will be considered as reported in the company's official earnings materials. Subsequent revisions will not be considered.\n\nIf the specified company's official earnings materials for the specified quarter are released, and the specified metric is not included, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nIf the specified company does not release",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "$3.15B: The listed company's official Q2 2026 earnings materials, released by July 14, 2026, determine investment banking fee amounts; absence of the metric resolves to No.",
      "close_at": "2026-07-14T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-07-14T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "resolved",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if JP Morgan's investment banking fees for the upcoming second fiscal quarter, as reported in its official company earnings materials, is above the listed amount. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nThe specified metric will be considered as reported in the company's official earnings materials. Subsequent revisions will not be considered.\n\nIf the specified company's official earnings materials for the specified quarter are released, and the specified metric is not included, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nIf the specified company does not release quarterly earnings materials for the specified quarter by August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nIf the specified metric is reported as a range rather than a specific number, the midpoint of the range will be used for resolution of this market.\n\nThe resolution source for this market is JP Morgan's official company earnings materials, including press releases, investor presentations, and regulatory filings. If the specified metric is not reported in these materials, recordings or transcripts of the company's earnings webcast may also be used.\n\nNote: This market will resolve based on the most numerically precise version of the specified metric reported in the company's official earnings materials. Only the specified metric will be considered; alternate versions that differ in definition or scope from the specified metric will not be considered.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": null,
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "JP Morgan's official company earnings materials, including press releases, investor presentations, and regulatory filings",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "recordings or transcripts of the company's earnings webcast",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "JP Morgan's official company earnings materials",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 84,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 1,
      "implied_probability": 1,
      "volume_24h_usd": 255.56,
      "volume_total_usd": 4206.380000000001,
      "settlement_style": "terminal",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 3.15,
      "question_id": "CMX-75F7DD0258",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "fees",
        "investment banking",
        "jp morgan q2",
        "jpm",
        "q2"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-HZCQ8VK3Y1",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-PHX9CWYQ02",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0xc89d5ddd077f30cf46ee809010be8bb1a620753c194ea43f37c04c79c8168bd7",
      "question": "Will JP Morgan (JPM) Q2 investment banking fees be above $2.7B?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if JP Morgan's investment banking fees for the upcoming second fiscal quarter, as reported in its official company earnings materials, is above the listed amount. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nThe specified metric will be considered as reported in the company's official earnings materials. Subsequent revisions will not be considered.\n\nIf the specified company's official earnings materials for the specified quarter are released, and the specified metric is not included, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nIf the specified company does not release",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "$2.7B: The listed company's official Q2 2026 earnings materials, released by July 14, 2026, determine investment banking fee amounts; absence of the metric resolves to No.",
      "close_at": "2026-07-14T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-07-14T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "resolved",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if JP Morgan's investment banking fees for the upcoming second fiscal quarter, as reported in its official company earnings materials, is above the listed amount. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nThe specified metric will be considered as reported in the company's official earnings materials. Subsequent revisions will not be considered.\n\nIf the specified company's official earnings materials for the specified quarter are released, and the specified metric is not included, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nIf the specified company does not release quarterly earnings materials for the specified quarter by August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nIf the specified metric is reported as a range rather than a specific number, the midpoint of the range will be used for resolution of this market.\n\nThe resolution source for this market is JP Morgan's official company earnings materials, including press releases, investor presentations, and regulatory filings. If the specified metric is not reported in these materials, recordings or transcripts of the company's earnings webcast may also be used.\n\nNote: This market will resolve based on the most numerically precise version of the specified metric reported in the company's official earnings materials. Only the specified metric will be considered; alternate versions that differ in definition or scope from the specified metric will not be considered.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": null,
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "JP Morgan's official company earnings materials, including press releases, investor presentations, and regulatory filings",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "recordings or transcripts of the company's earnings webcast",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "JP Morgan's official company earnings materials",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 84,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 1,
      "implied_probability": 1,
      "volume_24h_usd": 44.76,
      "volume_total_usd": 1978.6768050000003,
      "settlement_style": "terminal",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 2.7,
      "question_id": "CMX-3AA500BB6F",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "fees",
        "investment banking",
        "jp morgan q2",
        "jpm",
        "q2"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-XGZWQDD0T0",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-PHX9CWYQ02",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x9f916afc35917adf98fa2d4ecca21bd04495e4a1b7c6f6ef8f74ef83f008af4f",
      "question": "Will JP Morgan (JPM) Q2 investment banking fees be above $3.0B?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if JP Morgan's investment banking fees for the upcoming second fiscal quarter, as reported in its official company earnings materials, is above the listed amount. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nThe specified metric will be considered as reported in the company's official earnings materials. Subsequent revisions will not be considered.\n\nIf the specified company's official earnings materials for the specified quarter are released, and the specified metric is not included, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nIf the specified company does not release",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "$3.0B: The listed company's official Q2 2026 earnings materials, released by July 14, 2026, determine investment banking fee amounts; absence of the metric resolves to No.",
      "close_at": "2026-07-14T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-07-14T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "resolved",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if JP Morgan's investment banking fees for the upcoming second fiscal quarter, as reported in its official company earnings materials, is above the listed amount. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nThe specified metric will be considered as reported in the company's official earnings materials. Subsequent revisions will not be considered.\n\nIf the specified company's official earnings materials for the specified quarter are released, and the specified metric is not included, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nIf the specified company does not release quarterly earnings materials for the specified quarter by August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nIf the specified metric is reported as a range rather than a specific number, the midpoint of the range will be used for resolution of this market.\n\nThe resolution source for this market is JP Morgan's official company earnings materials, including press releases, investor presentations, and regulatory filings. If the specified metric is not reported in these materials, recordings or transcripts of the company's earnings webcast may also be used.\n\nNote: This market will resolve based on the most numerically precise version of the specified metric reported in the company's official earnings materials. Only the specified metric will be considered; alternate versions that differ in definition or scope from the specified metric will not be considered.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": null,
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "JP Morgan's official company earnings materials, including press releases, investor presentations, and regulatory filings",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "recordings or transcripts of the company's earnings webcast",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "JP Morgan's official company earnings materials",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 84,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 1,
      "implied_probability": 1,
      "volume_24h_usd": 1610.72,
      "volume_total_usd": 13069.066565000001,
      "settlement_style": "terminal",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 3,
      "question_id": "CMX-025D70F544",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "fees",
        "investment banking",
        "jp morgan q2",
        "jpm",
        "q2"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    }
  ],
  "resolution_log": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-D131CY7RM6",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "event_type": "resolved",
      "outcome": "YES",
      "resolved_at": "2026-07-14T12:54:26Z",
      "deadline_at": null,
      "occurred_basis": "venue_settlement",
      "final_price": 1,
      "recorded_at": "2026-07-24",
      "source": "platform_api",
      "source_ref": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-XGZWQDD0T0",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "event_type": "resolved",
      "outcome": "YES",
      "resolved_at": "2026-07-14T12:54:26Z",
      "deadline_at": null,
      "occurred_basis": "venue_settlement",
      "final_price": 1,
      "recorded_at": "2026-07-24",
      "source": "platform_api",
      "source_ref": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-HZCQ8VK3Y1",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "event_type": "resolved",
      "outcome": "YES",
      "resolved_at": "2026-07-14T12:54:23Z",
      "deadline_at": null,
      "occurred_basis": "venue_settlement",
      "final_price": 1,
      "recorded_at": "2026-07-24",
      "source": "platform_api",
      "source_ref": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-R8N3Z183M5",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "event_type": "resolved",
      "outcome": "YES",
      "resolved_at": "2026-07-14T12:44:43Z",
      "deadline_at": null,
      "occurred_basis": "venue_settlement",
      "final_price": 1,
      "recorded_at": "2026-07-24",
      "source": "platform_api",
      "source_ref": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-FRY2ZSVVQ5",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "event_type": "resolved",
      "outcome": "YES",
      "resolved_at": "2026-07-14T12:41:43Z",
      "deadline_at": null,
      "occurred_basis": "venue_settlement",
      "final_price": 1,
      "recorded_at": "2026-07-24",
      "source": "platform_api",
      "source_ref": null
    }
  ],
  "_provenance": {
    "source": "clearmarket.fyi",
    "ref": "CM-EVT-PHX9CWYQ02",
    "terms": "Attribution required. clearmarket.fyi"
  }
}