{
  "_notice": {
    "type": "free_key_offer",
    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
  },
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-DCGKL8Z594",
  "slug": "will-knots-flip-bitcoin-core-by-december-31",
  "question": "Will Knots flip Bitcoin Core by the settlement date?",
  "category": "crypto",
  "event_type": "BINARY",
  "ladder_distribution": null,
  "tags": [
    "crypto",
    "bitcoin",
    "knots-protocol",
    "blockchain-adoption",
    "market-dominance",
    "2026"
  ],
  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "Both markets track whether Bitcoin Knots node count will surpass Bitcoin Core on the Coin.dance Bitcoin Nodes chart. The December 31 market uses a hard end-of-year cutoff; the \"before 2027\" market frames the same threshold as a calendar-year boundary. Both markets resolve via Polymarket's UMA Optimistic Oracle using Coin.dance month-to-date node data. Both markets carry status resolved as of January 2, 2026.",
  "venues_covered": [
    "polymarket"
  ],
  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-MDSTP489B2",
  "current_primary_mark": {
    "last_price": 0.002,
    "implied_probability": 0.002
  },
  "created_at": "2026-07-06T00:30:45.836226+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-07-06T00:30:45.836226+00:00",
  "markets": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-MDSTP489B2",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-DCGKL8Z594",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x4273de1a75e1698f483feace3ee3fddda5ba5f4bcebc04c01e93241014ff84ed",
      "question": "Will knots flip bitcoin core by December 31?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if, by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, the number of Bitcoin Knots nodes exceeds the number of Bitcoin Core nodes. Otherwise, it will resolve to “No.”\n\nThe resolution source for this market is https://coin.dance/nodes/all, specifically the “Bitcoin Nodes” chart set to “MTD.”\nResolution will be based on the node counts displayed when hovering over each date for Bitcoin Core Nodes and Bitcoin Knots Nodes.\n\nA data point for a given day will be considered finalized once data for the following day is published.\n\nIf the resolution source becomes permanently unavaila",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "December 31: Coin.dance's Bitcoin Nodes chart MTD data resolves whether the named alternative implementation's node count exceeded the reference implementation's count by January 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.",
      "close_at": "2026-01-01T05:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-01-02T08:38:13Z",
      "status": "closed",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if, by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, the number of Bitcoin Knots nodes exceeds the number of Bitcoin Core nodes. Otherwise, it will resolve to “No.”\n\nThe resolution source for this market is https://coin.dance/nodes/all, specifically the “Bitcoin Nodes” chart set to “MTD.”\nResolution will be based on the node counts displayed when hovering over each date for Bitcoin Core Nodes and Bitcoin Knots Nodes.\n\nA data point for a given day will be considered finalized once data for the following day is published.\n\nIf the resolution source becomes permanently unavailable within this market’s timeframe and before resolution criteria are met, the market will resolve based on a reliable alternative source or public data consistent with the official Bitcoin node counts.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://coin.dance/nodes/all",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "coin.dance",
            "url": "https://coin.dance/nodes/all",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "https://coin.dance/nodes/all",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "https://coin.dance/nodes/all",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "committed_secondhand",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 65,
        "caps": [
          "commitment_committed_secondhand"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.002,
      "implied_probability": 0.002,
      "volume_24h_usd": null,
      "volume_total_usd": 37739.468097,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "occurrence",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": "CMX-7D1A7693EC",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "bitcoin",
        "crypto",
        "knots",
        "knots flips bitcoin"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-SNBVV2YFP1",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-DCGKL8Z594",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x7fcb9e4af2709a1f376c95a969d2463b104f4b979759dbaead46f0405d74adff",
      "question": "Will knots flip bitcoin core before 2027?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the number of Bitcoin Knots nodes exceeds the number of Bitcoin Core nodes. Otherwise, it will resolve to “No.”\n\nThe resolution source for this market is https://coin.dance/nodes/all, specifically the “Bitcoin Nodes” chart set to “MTD.”\nResolution will be based on the node counts displayed when hovering over each date for Bitcoin Core Nodes and Bitcoin Knots Nodes.\n\nA data point for a given day will be considered finalized once data for the following day is published.\n\nIf the resolution source becomes permanently unavaila",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "December 31, 2026: Coin.dance's Bitcoin Nodes chart MTD data resolves whether the named alternative implementation's node count exceeded the reference implementation's count by January 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.",
      "close_at": "2027-01-01T05:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-01-01T05:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the number of Bitcoin Knots nodes exceeds the number of Bitcoin Core nodes. Otherwise, it will resolve to “No.”\n\nThe resolution source for this market is https://coin.dance/nodes/all, specifically the “Bitcoin Nodes” chart set to “MTD.”\nResolution will be based on the node counts displayed when hovering over each date for Bitcoin Core Nodes and Bitcoin Knots Nodes.\n\nA data point for a given day will be considered finalized once data for the following day is published.\n\nIf the resolution source becomes permanently unavailable within this market’s timeframe and before resolution criteria are met, the market will resolve based on a reliable alternative source or public data consistent with the official Bitcoin node counts.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": "https://coin.dance/nodes/all",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "coin.dance",
            "url": "https://coin.dance/nodes/all",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "https://coin.dance/nodes/all",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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        "source_of_record": "https://coin.dance/nodes/all",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "committed_secondhand",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 65,
        "caps": [
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        ],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.106,
      "implied_probability": 0.106,
      "volume_24h_usd": 34.3,
      "volume_total_usd": 558.8965029999999,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "occurrence",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": "CMX-F0EB59EEBA",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "bitcoin",
        "crypto",
        "knots",
        "knots flips bitcoin"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    }
  ],
  "resolution_log": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-MDSTP489B2",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "outcome": "closed",
      "resolved_at": "2026-01-02T08:38:13Z",
      "final_price": null,
      "recorded_at": "2026-07-06",
      "source": "platform_api",
      "source_ref": null
    }
  ],
  "_provenance": {
    "source": "clearmarket.fyi",
    "ref": "CM-EVT-DCGKL8Z594",
    "terms": "Attribution required. clearmarket.fyi"
  }
}