{
  "_notice": {
    "type": "free_key_offer",
    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
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  "event_id": "CM-EVT-J0M5X9VWM9",
  "slug": "will-lula-announce-nomination-of-a-supreme-court-minister-byptptpt-20260602182854659",
  "question": "Will Lula announce the nomination of a Supreme Court minister by 2026?",
  "category": "politics",
  "event_type": "BINARY",
  "ladder_distribution": null,
  "tags": [
    "politics",
    "brazil",
    "lula",
    "supreme-court",
    "judicial-appointments",
    "2026"
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  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "These markets track whether Brazilian President Lula will nominate a justice to the Supreme Federal Tribunal by specific 2026 deadlines. Three binary contracts are structured as sequential date thresholds: June 30, September 30, and December 31. Each resolves independently via Polymarket's UMA Optimistic Oracle. A nomination confirmed before an earlier deadline would logically settle all subsequent contracts in the affirmative.",
  "venues_covered": [
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  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-V7N1QLD0W3",
  "current_primary_mark": {
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    "implied_probability": 0.002
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  "created_at": "2026-07-23T21:11:14.426158+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-07-23T21:11:14.426158+00:00",
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      "event_id": "CM-EVT-J0M5X9VWM9",
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      "platform_market_id": "0x73e5405462d8d42c3c34a89f7ba4dc78047fb9479bfb9e958dde6af26080dcd0",
      "question": "Will Lula announce the nomination of an individual for Minister of the Supreme Federal Court of Brazil by June 30?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (Lula) nominates an individual for Minister (Ministro) of the Supreme Federal Court of Brazil (Supremo Tribunal Federal) by the listed date, 11:59 PM Brasilia time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nAn announcement from Lula or the Office of the Presidency of the Republic of Brazil (Presidência da República) stating that Lula has nominated an individual for Minister of the Supreme Federal Court will suffice to resolve this market, regardless of whether a formal nomination actually occurred.\n\nQualifying announc",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "June 30: Resolution per the event's stated source and mechanism (subject supplied per market).",
      "close_at": "2026-12-31T17:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-07-04T05:48:50Z",
      "status": "closed",
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        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (Lula) nominates an individual for Minister (Ministro) of the Supreme Federal Court of Brazil (Supremo Tribunal Federal) by the listed date, 11:59 PM Brasilia time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nAn announcement from Lula or the Office of the Presidency of the Republic of Brazil (Presidência da República) stating that Lula has nominated an individual for Minister of the Supreme Federal Court will suffice to resolve this market, regardless of whether a formal nomination actually occurred.\n\nQualifying announcements must explicitly present the relevant individual as the nominee for Minister of the Supreme Federal Court. Announcements of acting or interim appointments, announcements of intention to nominate an individual in the future, or announcements which merely reveal potential candidates will not qualify. Media reports, speculation, or other unofficial information will not qualify.\n\nA formal presidential nomination of an individual to be Minister of the Supreme Federal Court will also suffice to resolve this market. Formal nominations are defined as the submission of a nomination message to the President of the Federal Senate (presidente do Senado Federal).\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Presidency of the Republic of Brazil (https://www.gov.br/planalto), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
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      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 91,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
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      "volume_24h_usd": null,
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      "settlement_style": "touch",
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      "tags": [
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      "question": "Will Lula announce the nomination of an individual for Minister of the Supreme Federal Court of Brazil by September 30?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (Lula) nominates an individual for Minister (Ministro) of the Supreme Federal Court of Brazil (Supremo Tribunal Federal) by the listed date, 11:59 PM Brasilia time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nAn announcement from Lula or the Office of the Presidency of the Republic of Brazil (Presidência da República) stating that Lula has nominated an individual for Minister of the Supreme Federal Court will suffice to resolve this market, regardless of whether a formal nomination actually occurred.\n\nQualifying announc",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "September 30: Resolution per the event's stated source and mechanism (subject supplied per market).",
      "close_at": "2026-12-31T17:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-12-31T17:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (Lula) nominates an individual for Minister (Ministro) of the Supreme Federal Court of Brazil (Supremo Tribunal Federal) by the listed date, 11:59 PM Brasilia time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nAn announcement from Lula or the Office of the Presidency of the Republic of Brazil (Presidência da República) stating that Lula has nominated an individual for Minister of the Supreme Federal Court will suffice to resolve this market, regardless of whether a formal nomination actually occurred.\n\nQualifying announcements must explicitly present the relevant individual as the nominee for Minister of the Supreme Federal Court. Announcements of acting or interim appointments, announcements of intention to nominate an individual in the future, or announcements which merely reveal potential candidates will not qualify. Media reports, speculation, or other unofficial information will not qualify.\n\nA formal presidential nomination of an individual to be Minister of the Supreme Federal Court will also suffice to resolve this market. Formal nominations are defined as the submission of a nomination message to the President of the Federal Senate (presidente do Senado Federal).\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Presidency of the Republic of Brazil (https://www.gov.br/planalto), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.",
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        "score": 91,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
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      "last_price": 0.17,
      "implied_probability": 0.17,
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      "tags": [
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    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-RH7L283YP6",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-J0M5X9VWM9",
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      "platform_market_id": "0x8259480f1436f12e68626ab9256d8faec95a7f30c80552c53b8b231a9e83efca",
      "question": "Will Lula announce the nomination of an individual for Minister of the Supreme Federal Court of Brazil by December 31?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (Lula) nominates an individual for Minister (Ministro) of the Supreme Federal Court of Brazil (Supremo Tribunal Federal) by the listed date, 11:59 PM Brasilia time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nAn announcement from Lula or the Office of the Presidency of the Republic of Brazil (Presidência da República) stating that Lula has nominated an individual for Minister of the Supreme Federal Court will suffice to resolve this market, regardless of whether a formal nomination actually occurred.\n\nQualifying announc",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "December 31: Resolution per the event's stated source and mechanism (subject supplied per market).",
      "close_at": "2026-12-31T17:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-12-31T17:00:00Z",
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        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
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      "outcome": "closed",
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