{
  "_notice": {
    "type": "free_key_offer",
    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
  },
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-RTLBSZSTT4",
  "slug": "will-magicblock-launch-a-token-by",
  "question": "Will MagicBlock launch a token by 2026?",
  "category": "crypto",
  "event_type": "BINARY",
  "ladder_distribution": null,
  "tags": [
    "crypto",
    "token-launch",
    "magicblock",
    "2026",
    "blockchain-governance",
    "web3-infrastructure"
  ],
  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "These markets track whether MagicBlock, a Solana-based gaming infrastructure protocol, will launch a native token by successive quarterly deadlines through December 31, 2027. All seven contracts are structured identically on Polymarket, forming a term structure of binary outcomes across eight quarters. Earlier-dated contracts imply higher hurdles; later-dated contracts embed cumulative probability across all prior windows. Resolution for each contract follows Polymarket's UMA Optimistic Oracle protocol.",
  "venues_covered": [
    "polymarket"
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  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-8V36B8D8F4",
  "current_primary_mark": {
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    "implied_probability": 0.751
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  "created_at": "2026-07-23T21:11:14.426158+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-07-23T21:11:14.426158+00:00",
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      "market_id": "CM-MKT-3S09ZKM4Q8",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-RTLBSZSTT4",
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      "platform_market_id": "0x852ee69d265bc13dc368900f892d1ed4be52b57bcbad255349fde1ac9a199918",
      "question": "Will MagicBlock launch a token by June 30, 2026?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if MagicBlock officially launches a token by 11:59 PM ET on the date specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nOnly an official token launched by MagicBlock will qualify. Stablecoins, memecoins, LSTs and synthetic tokens will not count.\n\nThe token must be actively and publicly tradable. Announcements alone do not qualify.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be information from MagicBlock (https://x.com/magicblock), however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "June 30, 2026: Resolution per the event's stated source and mechanism (subject supplied per market).",
      "close_at": "2026-07-01T03:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-07-01T08:23:53Z",
      "status": "closed",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if MagicBlock officially launches a token by 11:59 PM ET on the date specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nOnly an official token launched by MagicBlock will qualify. Stablecoins, memecoins, LSTs and synthetic tokens will not count.\n\nThe token must be actively and publicly tradable. Announcements alone do not qualify.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be information from MagicBlock (https://x.com/magicblock), however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": "https://x.com/magicblock",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "x.com",
            "url": "https://x.com/magicblock",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
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          {
            "name": "information from MagicBlock (https://x.com/magicblock)",
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            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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      "rcg": {
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      "implied_probability": 0.001,
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      "volume_total_usd": 8035.561414000003,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "occurrence",
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      "question_id": "CMX-6B3C3B87EB",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
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        "token"
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      "eligibility_screens": null
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    {
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      "event_id": "CM-EVT-RTLBSZSTT4",
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      "platform_market_id": "0x72c6df4ba8b4da48e836e4bac6315e023999744e4aa9289ac4e4152d31dfed11",
      "question": "Will MagicBlock launch a token by September 30, 2026?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if MagicBlock officially launches a token by 11:59 PM ET on the date specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nOnly an official token launched by MagicBlock will qualify. Stablecoins, memecoins, LSTs and synthetic tokens will not count.\n\nThe token must be actively and publicly tradable. Announcements alone do not qualify.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be information from MagicBlock (https://x.com/magicblock), however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "September 30, 2026: Resolution per the event's stated source and mechanism (subject supplied per market).",
      "close_at": "2026-10-01T03:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-10-01T03:59:00Z",
      "status": "closed",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if MagicBlock officially launches a token by 11:59 PM ET on the date specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nOnly an official token launched by MagicBlock will qualify. Stablecoins, memecoins, LSTs and synthetic tokens will not count.\n\nThe token must be actively and publicly tradable. Announcements alone do not qualify.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be information from MagicBlock (https://x.com/magicblock), however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
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        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": "https://x.com/magicblock",
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      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "occurrence",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": "CMX-9B0154AD79",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "launch",
        "magicblock",
        "token"
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    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-HGNJYMF0R9",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-RTLBSZSTT4",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x73fc80b81b98e0211ed286944d06b5aee0987708128a373b6deb9f95174ccb74",
      "question": "Will MagicBlock launch a token by December 31, 2026?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if MagicBlock officially launches a token by 11:59 PM ET on the date specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nOnly an official token launched by MagicBlock will qualify. Stablecoins, memecoins, LSTs and synthetic tokens will not count.\n\nThe token must be actively and publicly tradable. Announcements alone do not qualify.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be information from MagicBlock (https://x.com/magicblock), however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "December 31, 2026: Resolution per the event's stated source and mechanism (subject supplied per market).",
      "close_at": "2027-01-01T04:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-01-01T04:59:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if MagicBlock officially launches a token by 11:59 PM ET on the date specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nOnly an official token launched by MagicBlock will qualify. Stablecoins, memecoins, LSTs and synthetic tokens will not count.\n\nThe token must be actively and publicly tradable. Announcements alone do not qualify.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be information from MagicBlock (https://x.com/magicblock), however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": "https://x.com/magicblock",
        "sources": [
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            "name": "x.com",
            "url": "https://x.com/magicblock",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
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          {
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            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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        "source_quality": null,
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      "rcg": {
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        "score": 34,
        "caps": [
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        ],
        "applied_factors": 7
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      "last_price": 0.63,
      "implied_probability": 0.63,
      "volume_24h_usd": null,
      "volume_total_usd": 18781.547380000004,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "occurrence",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": "CMX-944D7F213F",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "launch",
        "magicblock",
        "token"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-0LM9QYXWQ4",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-RTLBSZSTT4",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x2fa19fd01d384f11aa6a0f402cb0fa05eca6b21275a473078486b828aab2dcf2",
      "question": "Will MagicBlock launch a token by March 31, 2027?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if MagicBlock officially launches a token by 11:59 PM ET on the date specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nOnly an official token launched by MagicBlock will qualify. Stablecoins, memecoins, LSTs and synthetic tokens will not count.\n\nThe token must be actively and publicly tradable. Announcements alone do not qualify.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be information from MagicBlock (https://x.com/magicblock), however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "March 31, 2027: Resolution per the event's stated source and mechanism (subject supplied per market).",
      "close_at": "2027-04-01T03:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-04-01T03:59:00Z",
      "status": "closed",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if MagicBlock officially launches a token by 11:59 PM ET on the date specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nOnly an official token launched by MagicBlock will qualify. Stablecoins, memecoins, LSTs and synthetic tokens will not count.\n\nThe token must be actively and publicly tradable. Announcements alone do not qualify.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be information from MagicBlock (https://x.com/magicblock), however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": "https://x.com/magicblock",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "x.com",
            "url": "https://x.com/magicblock",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "information from MagicBlock (https://x.com/magicblock)",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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      "volume_24h_usd": null,
      "volume_total_usd": null,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
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      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": "CMX-2DD7B2D322",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
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    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-8V36B8D8F4",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-RTLBSZSTT4",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x4716bb15ca04f9a570c19a7f5e3a9035be787240b01f8895cf78858d3ec7b91d",
      "question": "Will MagicBlock launch a token by June 30, 2027?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if MagicBlock officially launches a token by 11:59 PM ET on the date specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nOnly an official token launched by MagicBlock will qualify. Stablecoins, memecoins, LSTs and synthetic tokens will not count.\n\nThe token must be actively and publicly tradable. Announcements alone do not qualify.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be information from MagicBlock (https://x.com/magicblock), however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.",
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      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
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      "status": "open",
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      "tags": [
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    {
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      "event_id": "CM-EVT-RTLBSZSTT4",
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      "platform_market_id": "0x08452588a6afac7e9ec6a90e97bca23e3f0c981af636cc0a9cbe78c03c0bd929",
      "question": "Will MagicBlock launch a token by September 30, 2027?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if MagicBlock officially launches a token by 11:59 PM ET on the date specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nOnly an official token launched by MagicBlock will qualify. Stablecoins, memecoins, LSTs and synthetic tokens will not count.\n\nThe token must be actively and publicly tradable. Announcements alone do not qualify.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be information from MagicBlock (https://x.com/magicblock), however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "September 30, 2027: Resolution per the event's stated source and mechanism (subject supplied per market).",
      "close_at": "2027-10-01T03:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-10-01T03:59:00Z",
      "status": "closed",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if MagicBlock officially launches a token by 11:59 PM ET on the date specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nOnly an official token launched by MagicBlock will qualify. Stablecoins, memecoins, LSTs and synthetic tokens will not count.\n\nThe token must be actively and publicly tradable. Announcements alone do not qualify.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be information from MagicBlock (https://x.com/magicblock), however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.",
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        "source_citation": "https://x.com/magicblock",
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      "question_id": "CMX-527EB05C2E",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
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    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-S16SRQXQ44",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-RTLBSZSTT4",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x0ce527dfc292416db29a7a506cf26bc34560cd105a875984dabd727422c114c7",
      "question": "Will MagicBlock launch a token by December 31, 2027?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if MagicBlock officially launches a token by 11:59 PM ET on the date specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nOnly an official token launched by MagicBlock will qualify. Stablecoins, memecoins, LSTs and synthetic tokens will not count.\n\nThe token must be actively and publicly tradable. Announcements alone do not qualify.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be information from MagicBlock (https://x.com/magicblock), however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "December 31, 2027: Resolution per the event's stated source and mechanism (subject supplied per market).",
      "close_at": "2028-01-01T04:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2028-01-01T04:59:00Z",
      "status": "closed",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if MagicBlock officially launches a token by 11:59 PM ET on the date specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nOnly an official token launched by MagicBlock will qualify. Stablecoins, memecoins, LSTs and synthetic tokens will not count.\n\nThe token must be actively and publicly tradable. Announcements alone do not qualify.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be information from MagicBlock (https://x.com/magicblock), however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
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      "volume_24h_usd": null,
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      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "occurrence",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": "CMX-837D06C38B",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
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        "magicblock",
        "token"
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