{
  "_notice": {
    "type": "free_key_offer",
    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
  },
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-YTFQNQ61K5",
  "slug": "will-micron-q3-dram-revenue-be-above",
  "question": "Micron Q3 DRAM revenue, June 24, 2026",
  "category": "technology",
  "event_type": "LADDER",
  "ladder_distribution": {
    "direction": "above",
    "implied_band": [
      30,
      null
    ],
    "strikes": [
      {
        "threshold": 25,
        "prob": 100
      },
      {
        "threshold": 26,
        "prob": 100
      },
      {
        "threshold": 27.5,
        "prob": 100
      },
      {
        "threshold": 29,
        "prob": 100
      },
      {
        "threshold": 30,
        "prob": 100
      }
    ]
  },
  "tags": [
    "technology",
    "micron-technology",
    "dram-revenue",
    "q3-2026",
    "semiconductor-earnings",
    "finance"
  ],
  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "These markets track Micron Technology's DRAM segment revenue for fiscal Q3 2026. Five binary strike thresholds span $25B to $30B, forming an implied probability distribution over the revenue range. All five resolve via Polymarket's UMA Optimistic Oracle against Micron's official fiscal Q3 2026 earnings materials. The layered strike structure means traders can read cumulative exceedance probabilities across the full range.",
  "venues_covered": [
    "polymarket"
  ],
  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-29JX64J5F9",
  "current_primary_mark": {
    "last_price": 1,
    "implied_probability": 1
  },
  "created_at": "2026-07-06T00:30:45.836226+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-07-06T00:30:45.836226+00:00",
  "markets": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-TD5CLZ3WX9",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-YTFQNQ61K5",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x45acb572f3e974b6c9d425c3294050a86ff9e5254ea1ed4ea8de85c3f950cb7a",
      "question": "Will Micron Q3 DRAM revenue be above $25B?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Micron's DRAM revenue for the third fiscal quarter of 2026, as reported in its official company earnings materials and investor presentation, is above the listed amount. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nThe specified metric will be considered as reported in the company's official earnings materials. Subsequent revisions will not be considered.\n\nIf the specified company's official earnings materials for the specified quarter are released, and the specified metric is not included, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nIf the specified company does n",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "$25B: Micron Technology's official earnings materials for fiscal Q3 2026, released by the specified deadline, will disclose DRAM revenue; reported figures above the threshold resolve \"Yes\".",
      "close_at": "2026-06-24T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-06-24T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "resolved",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Micron's DRAM revenue for the third fiscal quarter of 2026, as reported in its official company earnings materials and investor presentation, is above the listed amount. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nThe specified metric will be considered as reported in the company's official earnings materials. Subsequent revisions will not be considered.\n\nIf the specified company's official earnings materials for the specified quarter are released, and the specified metric is not included, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nIf the specified company does not release quarterly earnings materials for the specified quarter by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nIf the specified metric is reported as a range rather than a specific number, the midpoint of the range will be used for resolution of this market.\n\nThe resolution source for this market is Micron's official company earnings materials and investor presentation, including press releases, investor presentations, and regulatory filings. If the specified metric is not reported in these materials, recordings or transcripts of the company's earnings webcast may also be used.\n\nNote: This market will resolve based on the most numerically precise version of the specified metric reported in the company's official earnings materials. Only the specified metric will be considered; alternate versions that differ in definition or scope from the specified metric will not be considered.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": null,
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "Micron's official company earnings materials and investor presentation",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "press releases",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "investor presentations",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "regulatory filings",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "recordings or transcripts of the company's earnings webcast",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "Micron's official company earnings materials and investor presentation",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 84,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 1,
      "implied_probability": 1,
      "volume_24h_usd": 227.28828300000004,
      "volume_total_usd": 6953.025917,
      "settlement_style": "terminal",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 25,
      "question_id": "CMX-A426DBCB45",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "dram",
        "micron",
        "micron q3 dram",
        "q3",
        "revenue"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-SF7XZPNKR3",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-YTFQNQ61K5",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x092f6fcf0f5330eb509f54431c39d22b959a71247311ecccda52a21e59fb58ed",
      "question": "Will Micron Q3 DRAM revenue be above $26B?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Micron's DRAM revenue for the third fiscal quarter of 2026, as reported in its official company earnings materials and investor presentation, is above the listed amount. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nThe specified metric will be considered as reported in the company's official earnings materials. Subsequent revisions will not be considered.\n\nIf the specified company's official earnings materials for the specified quarter are released, and the specified metric is not included, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nIf the specified company does n",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "$26B: Micron Technology's official earnings materials for fiscal Q3 2026, released by the specified deadline, will disclose DRAM revenue; reported figures above the threshold resolve \"Yes\".",
      "close_at": "2026-06-24T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-06-24T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "resolved",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Micron's DRAM revenue for the third fiscal quarter of 2026, as reported in its official company earnings materials and investor presentation, is above the listed amount. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nThe specified metric will be considered as reported in the company's official earnings materials. Subsequent revisions will not be considered.\n\nIf the specified company's official earnings materials for the specified quarter are released, and the specified metric is not included, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nIf the specified company does not release quarterly earnings materials for the specified quarter by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nIf the specified metric is reported as a range rather than a specific number, the midpoint of the range will be used for resolution of this market.\n\nThe resolution source for this market is Micron's official company earnings materials and investor presentation, including press releases, investor presentations, and regulatory filings. If the specified metric is not reported in these materials, recordings or transcripts of the company's earnings webcast may also be used.\n\nNote: This market will resolve based on the most numerically precise version of the specified metric reported in the company's official earnings materials. Only the specified metric will be considered; alternate versions that differ in definition or scope from the specified metric will not be considered.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": null,
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "Micron's official company earnings materials and investor presentation",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "press releases",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "investor presentations",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "regulatory filings",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "recordings or transcripts of the company's earnings webcast",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "Micron's official company earnings materials and investor presentation",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 84,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 1,
      "implied_probability": 1,
      "volume_24h_usd": 47.2,
      "volume_total_usd": 8408.789969999998,
      "settlement_style": "terminal",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 26,
      "question_id": "CMX-5183C779C2",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "dram",
        "micron",
        "micron q3 dram",
        "q3",
        "revenue"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-L2KVTCZ290",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-YTFQNQ61K5",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x5ab57b81129875130189837ccd7107b9bef9c1c92507aa39421ad9f30f7fee08",
      "question": "Will Micron Q3 DRAM revenue be above $27.5B?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Micron's DRAM revenue for the third fiscal quarter of 2026, as reported in its official company earnings materials and investor presentation, is above the listed amount. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nThe specified metric will be considered as reported in the company's official earnings materials. Subsequent revisions will not be considered.\n\nIf the specified company's official earnings materials for the specified quarter are released, and the specified metric is not included, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nIf the specified company does n",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "$27.5B: Micron Technology's official earnings materials for fiscal Q3 2026, released by the specified deadline, will disclose DRAM revenue; reported figures above the threshold resolve \"Yes\".",
      "close_at": "2026-06-24T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-06-24T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "resolved",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Micron's DRAM revenue for the third fiscal quarter of 2026, as reported in its official company earnings materials and investor presentation, is above the listed amount. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nThe specified metric will be considered as reported in the company's official earnings materials. Subsequent revisions will not be considered.\n\nIf the specified company's official earnings materials for the specified quarter are released, and the specified metric is not included, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nIf the specified company does not release quarterly earnings materials for the specified quarter by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nIf the specified metric is reported as a range rather than a specific number, the midpoint of the range will be used for resolution of this market.\n\nThe resolution source for this market is Micron's official company earnings materials and investor presentation, including press releases, investor presentations, and regulatory filings. If the specified metric is not reported in these materials, recordings or transcripts of the company's earnings webcast may also be used.\n\nNote: This market will resolve based on the most numerically precise version of the specified metric reported in the company's official earnings materials. Only the specified metric will be considered; alternate versions that differ in definition or scope from the specified metric will not be considered.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": null,
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "Micron's official company earnings materials and investor presentation",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "press releases",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "investor presentations",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "regulatory filings",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "recordings or transcripts of the company's earnings webcast",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "Micron's official company earnings materials and investor presentation",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 84,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 1,
      "implied_probability": 1,
      "volume_24h_usd": 6.11,
      "volume_total_usd": 2680.2256749999997,
      "settlement_style": "terminal",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 27.5,
      "question_id": "CMX-F565B8C006",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "dram",
        "micron",
        "micron q3 dram",
        "q3",
        "revenue"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-HKGY9DMW13",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-YTFQNQ61K5",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x197b0244370a5cfabc9976d26748b6ebc15b3900b8a76ede6ab16e42a47f8b9f",
      "question": "Will Micron Q3 DRAM revenue be above $29B?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Micron's DRAM revenue for the third fiscal quarter of 2026, as reported in its official company earnings materials and investor presentation, is above the listed amount. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nThe specified metric will be considered as reported in the company's official earnings materials. Subsequent revisions will not be considered.\n\nIf the specified company's official earnings materials for the specified quarter are released, and the specified metric is not included, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nIf the specified company does n",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "$29B: Micron Technology's official earnings materials for fiscal Q3 2026, released by the specified deadline, will disclose DRAM revenue; reported figures above the threshold resolve \"Yes\".",
      "close_at": "2026-06-24T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-06-24T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "resolved",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Micron's DRAM revenue for the third fiscal quarter of 2026, as reported in its official company earnings materials and investor presentation, is above the listed amount. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nThe specified metric will be considered as reported in the company's official earnings materials. Subsequent revisions will not be considered.\n\nIf the specified company's official earnings materials for the specified quarter are released, and the specified metric is not included, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nIf the specified company does not release quarterly earnings materials for the specified quarter by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nIf the specified metric is reported as a range rather than a specific number, the midpoint of the range will be used for resolution of this market.\n\nThe resolution source for this market is Micron's official company earnings materials and investor presentation, including press releases, investor presentations, and regulatory filings. If the specified metric is not reported in these materials, recordings or transcripts of the company's earnings webcast may also be used.\n\nNote: This market will resolve based on the most numerically precise version of the specified metric reported in the company's official earnings materials. Only the specified metric will be considered; alternate versions that differ in definition or scope from the specified metric will not be considered.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": null,
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "Micron's official company earnings materials and investor presentation",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "press releases",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "investor presentations",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "regulatory filings",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "recordings or transcripts of the company's earnings webcast",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "Micron's official company earnings materials and investor presentation",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 84,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 1,
      "implied_probability": 1,
      "volume_24h_usd": 138.93,
      "volume_total_usd": 5295.3352190000005,
      "settlement_style": "terminal",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 29,
      "question_id": "CMX-9C934934BE",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "dram",
        "micron",
        "micron q3 dram",
        "q3",
        "revenue"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-29JX64J5F9",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-YTFQNQ61K5",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x679c4816188b76f6490dc545cf3aa42269b1f3b044eb787141657d8249b82bd6",
      "question": "Will Micron Q3 DRAM revenue be above $30B?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Micron's DRAM revenue for the third fiscal quarter of 2026, as reported in its official company earnings materials and investor presentation, is above the listed amount. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nThe specified metric will be considered as reported in the company's official earnings materials. Subsequent revisions will not be considered.\n\nIf the specified company's official earnings materials for the specified quarter are released, and the specified metric is not included, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nIf the specified company does n",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "$30B: Micron Technology's official earnings materials for fiscal Q3 2026, released by the specified deadline, will disclose DRAM revenue; reported figures above the threshold resolve \"Yes\".",
      "close_at": "2026-06-24T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-06-24T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "resolved",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Micron's DRAM revenue for the third fiscal quarter of 2026, as reported in its official company earnings materials and investor presentation, is above the listed amount. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nThe specified metric will be considered as reported in the company's official earnings materials. Subsequent revisions will not be considered.\n\nIf the specified company's official earnings materials for the specified quarter are released, and the specified metric is not included, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nIf the specified company does not release quarterly earnings materials for the specified quarter by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nIf the specified metric is reported as a range rather than a specific number, the midpoint of the range will be used for resolution of this market.\n\nThe resolution source for this market is Micron's official company earnings materials and investor presentation, including press releases, investor presentations, and regulatory filings. If the specified metric is not reported in these materials, recordings or transcripts of the company's earnings webcast may also be used.\n\nNote: This market will resolve based on the most numerically precise version of the specified metric reported in the company's official earnings materials. Only the specified metric will be considered; alternate versions that differ in definition or scope from the specified metric will not be considered.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": null,
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "Micron's official company earnings materials and investor presentation",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "press releases",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "investor presentations",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "regulatory filings",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "recordings or transcripts of the company's earnings webcast",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "Micron's official company earnings materials and investor presentation",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 84,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 1,
      "implied_probability": 1,
      "volume_24h_usd": null,
      "volume_total_usd": 3667.4717849999997,
      "settlement_style": "terminal",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 30,
      "question_id": "CMX-42C309D96E",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "dram",
        "micron",
        "micron q3 dram",
        "q3",
        "revenue"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    }
  ],
  "resolution_log": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-29JX64J5F9",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "event_type": "resolved",
      "outcome": "YES",
      "resolved_at": "2026-06-24T22:18:02Z",
      "deadline_at": null,
      "occurred_basis": "venue_settlement",
      "final_price": 1,
      "recorded_at": "2026-07-06",
      "source": "platform_api",
      "source_ref": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-TD5CLZ3WX9",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "event_type": "resolved",
      "outcome": "YES",
      "resolved_at": "2026-06-24T22:17:05Z",
      "deadline_at": null,
      "occurred_basis": "venue_settlement",
      "final_price": 1,
      "recorded_at": "2026-07-06",
      "source": "platform_api",
      "source_ref": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-SF7XZPNKR3",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "event_type": "resolved",
      "outcome": "YES",
      "resolved_at": "2026-06-24T22:17:05Z",
      "deadline_at": null,
      "occurred_basis": "venue_settlement",
      "final_price": 1,
      "recorded_at": "2026-07-06",
      "source": "platform_api",
      "source_ref": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-L2KVTCZ290",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "event_type": "resolved",
      "outcome": "YES",
      "resolved_at": "2026-06-24T22:17:05Z",
      "deadline_at": null,
      "occurred_basis": "venue_settlement",
      "final_price": 1,
      "recorded_at": "2026-07-06",
      "source": "platform_api",
      "source_ref": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-HKGY9DMW13",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "event_type": "resolved",
      "outcome": "YES",
      "resolved_at": "2026-06-24T22:17:05Z",
      "deadline_at": null,
      "occurred_basis": "venue_settlement",
      "final_price": 1,
      "recorded_at": "2026-07-06",
      "source": "platform_api",
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  "_provenance": {
    "source": "clearmarket.fyi",
    "ref": "CM-EVT-YTFQNQ61K5",
    "terms": "Attribution required. clearmarket.fyi"
  }
}