{
  "_notice": {
    "type": "free_key_offer",
    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
  },
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-VQ1KQ48KY6",
  "slug": "will-microstrategy-announce-holding-800k-btc-by-december-31-2026",
  "question": "Will MicroStrategy announce holding over 500,000 BTC by 2026-2027?",
  "category": "crypto",
  "event_type": "BINARY",
  "ladder_distribution": null,
  "tags": [
    "crypto",
    "microstrategy",
    "bitcoin-holdings",
    "corporate-accumulation",
    "2027",
    "multi-deadline-series"
  ],
  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "Both markets track MicroStrategy's self-reported Bitcoin holdings against discrete strike thresholds by December 31, 2026. Polymarket prices the 800k BTC threshold separately from the 1M BTC threshold, creating a tiered binary structure across two strikes. Both resolve via Polymarket's UMA Optimistic Oracle against official company announcements. The 2026-04-20 resolution timestamp indicates both markets have already settled.",
  "venues_covered": [
    "polymarket"
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  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-9FPNMKV476",
  "current_primary_mark": {
    "last_price": 0.09,
    "implied_probability": 0.09
  },
  "created_at": "2026-07-06T00:30:45.836226+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-07-06T00:30:45.836226+00:00",
  "markets": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-5M38TH6YN0",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-VQ1KQ48KY6",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0xf734adc9ece8a8b3324daf62a6592ec3d066f293a3a32cdbb34117794ff15715",
      "question": "Will MicroStrategy announce holding 800k+ BTC by December 31, 2026?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if MicroStrategy Incorporated or Michael Saylor officially announce that the company’s total Bitcoin holdings are equal to or greater than the number specified in the title at any point by 11:59 PM ET on the date specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be official announcements from MicroStrategy or Michael Saylor as to their total BTC holdings.\n\nFor reference, MicroStrategy’s reported BTC holdings can be tracked at: https://www.strategy.com/purchases",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "800k+: Official announcements from the named company or its principal regarding total Bitcoin holdings, tracked through corporate disclosures, resolve by January 1, 2027, 5:00 AM ET.",
      "close_at": "2027-01-01T05:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-04-20T15:55:54Z",
      "status": "closed",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if MicroStrategy Incorporated or Michael Saylor officially announce that the company’s total Bitcoin holdings are equal to or greater than the number specified in the title at any point by 11:59 PM ET on the date specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be official announcements from MicroStrategy or Michael Saylor as to their total BTC holdings.\n\nFor reference, MicroStrategy’s reported BTC holdings can be tracked at: https://www.strategy.com/purchases",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": "https://www.strategy.com/purchases",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "strategy.com",
            "url": "https://www.strategy.com/purchases",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
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          {
            "name": "official announcements from MicroStrategy or Michael Saylor as to their total BTC holdings",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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        "score": 62,
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        "applied_factors": 7
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      "last_price": 0.999,
      "implied_probability": 0.999,
      "volume_24h_usd": null,
      "volume_total_usd": 212143.2982469999,
      "settlement_style": "terminal",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 800000,
      "question_id": "CMX-D27D73D70F",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "bitcoin",
        "btc",
        "corporate holdings",
        "microstrategy",
        "microstrategy bitcoin holdings"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-9FPNMKV476",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-VQ1KQ48KY6",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x89b80e42d59b2fd03f3ee592ab7e0114b2d96beb6fa14ba51cfce53b5f6279df",
      "question": "Will MicroStrategy announce holding 1M+ BTC by December 31, 2026?-bV81",
      "description": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if MicroStrategy Incorporated or Michael Saylor officially announce that the company’s total Bitcoin holdings are equal to or greater than the number specified in the title at any point by 11:59 PM ET on the date specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be official announcements from MicroStrategy or Michael Saylor as to their total BTC holdings.\n\nFor reference, MicroStrategy’s reported BTC holdings can be tracked at: https://www.strategy.com/purchases",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "1M+: Official announcements from the named company or its principal regarding total Bitcoin holdings, tracked through corporate disclosures, resolve by January 1, 2027, 5:00 AM ET.",
      "close_at": "2027-01-01T05:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-01-01T05:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if MicroStrategy Incorporated or Michael Saylor officially announce that the company’s total Bitcoin holdings are equal to or greater than the number specified in the title at any point by 11:59 PM ET on the date specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be official announcements from MicroStrategy or Michael Saylor as to their total BTC holdings.\n\nFor reference, MicroStrategy’s reported BTC holdings can be tracked at: https://www.strategy.com/purchases",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": "https://www.strategy.com/purchases",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "strategy.com",
            "url": "https://www.strategy.com/purchases",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
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          {
            "name": "official announcements from MicroStrategy or Michael Saylor as to their total BTC holdings",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
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        "grade": "C",
        "score": 62,
        "caps": [
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        "applied_factors": 7
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      "last_price": 0.09,
      "implied_probability": 0.09,
      "volume_24h_usd": 653.02,
      "volume_total_usd": 285288.9263329997,
      "settlement_style": "terminal",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 1000000,
      "question_id": "CMX-E7161A95CE",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "bitcoin",
        "btc",
        "corporate holdings",
        "microstrategy",
        "microstrategy bitcoin holdings"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
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  "resolution_log": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-5M38TH6YN0",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "outcome": "closed",
      "resolved_at": "2026-04-20T15:55:54Z",
      "final_price": null,
      "recorded_at": "2026-07-06",
      "source": "platform_api",
      "source_ref": null
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  "_provenance": {
    "source": "clearmarket.fyi",
    "ref": "CM-EVT-VQ1KQ48KY6",
    "terms": "Attribution required. clearmarket.fyi"
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}