{
  "_notice": {
    "type": "free_key_offer",
    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
  },
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-YT6J5GFR23",
  "slug": "will-mojtaba-khamenei-leave-iran-byptptpt-20260720003505489",
  "question": "Will Mojtaba Khamenei leave Iran by 2026?",
  "category": "geopolitics",
  "event_type": "BINARY",
  "ladder_distribution": null,
  "tags": [
    "politics",
    "geopolitics",
    "iran",
    "khamenei-family",
    "leadership-succession",
    "2026"
  ],
  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "These markets track whether Mojtaba Khamenei departs Iranian territory by three sequential deadlines: July 24, July 31, and August 31, 2026. All three are binary outcome markets on Polymarket, structured as escalating time horizons on the same geopolitical event. Each resolves via Polymarket's UMA Optimistic Oracle. A near-term resolution YES implies YES for all later deadlines, creating implicit correlation across the three strikes.",
  "venues_covered": [
    "polymarket"
  ],
  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-JMJQVZKVP3",
  "current_primary_mark": {
    "last_price": 0.068,
    "implied_probability": 0.068
  },
  "created_at": "2026-07-23T21:11:14.426158+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-07-23T21:11:14.426158+00:00",
  "markets": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-SKPZDSLT23",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-YT6J5GFR23",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x1d12ad1192cab7f015f90549e40b064ddecfdb780254c737ee1c360ca31daa93",
      "question": "Will Mojtaba Khamenei leave Iran by July 24?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if it is confirmed that Mojtaba Khamenei was outside Iran at any point between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nBoth the presence outside Iran and its confirmation must occur between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. A presence outside Iran occurring prior to market creation will not qualify, regardless of when it is confirmed.\n\nMojtaba Khamenei need not depart Iran during the market window, nor remain outside Iran at the time of confirmation. If he was already outside Iran at",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "July 24: Resolution per the event's stated source and mechanism (subject supplied per market).",
      "close_at": "2026-07-24T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-07-24T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if it is confirmed that Mojtaba Khamenei was outside Iran at any point between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nBoth the presence outside Iran and its confirmation must occur between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. A presence outside Iran occurring prior to market creation will not qualify, regardless of when it is confirmed.\n\nMojtaba Khamenei need not depart Iran during the market window, nor remain outside Iran at the time of confirmation. If he was already outside Iran at market creation, his confirmed presence outside Iran during the window will qualify; likewise, a confirmed presence during the window will qualify even if he has since returned to Iran.\n\nIn cases where Mojtaba Khamenei may have exited Iranian airspace on a plane, he must be confirmed to have exited the plane in a country other than Iran for this market to resolve to \"Yes\". If Mojtaba Khamenei exits Iranian maritime territory on a boat to international waters, this market may resolve to \"Yes\".\n\nIf no qualifying confirmation occurs by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": null,
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "a consensus of credible reporting",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": null,
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_placeholder",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 26,
        "caps": [
          "adversarial_ground_truth",
          "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.009,
      "implied_probability": 0.009,
      "volume_24h_usd": null,
      "volume_total_usd": 2743.3295119999993,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "occurrence",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "iran",
        "khamenei",
        "mojtaba khamenei departure",
        "political"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-NRZLQX8YQ0",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-YT6J5GFR23",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x81e8ba709bd83aaf0eb1f1d88ecfe2fcbdd3da06e3f2cca21b0cbe909856d280",
      "question": "Will Mojtaba Khamenei leave Iran by July 31?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if it is confirmed that Mojtaba Khamenei was outside Iran at any point between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nBoth the presence outside Iran and its confirmation must occur between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. A presence outside Iran occurring prior to market creation will not qualify, regardless of when it is confirmed.\n\nMojtaba Khamenei need not depart Iran during the market window, nor remain outside Iran at the time of confirmation. If he was already outside Iran at",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "July 31: Resolution per the event's stated source and mechanism (subject supplied per market).",
      "close_at": "2026-07-31T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-07-31T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if it is confirmed that Mojtaba Khamenei was outside Iran at any point between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nBoth the presence outside Iran and its confirmation must occur between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. A presence outside Iran occurring prior to market creation will not qualify, regardless of when it is confirmed.\n\nMojtaba Khamenei need not depart Iran during the market window, nor remain outside Iran at the time of confirmation. If he was already outside Iran at market creation, his confirmed presence outside Iran during the window will qualify; likewise, a confirmed presence during the window will qualify even if he has since returned to Iran.\n\nIn cases where Mojtaba Khamenei may have exited Iranian airspace on a plane, he must be confirmed to have exited the plane in a country other than Iran for this market to resolve to \"Yes\". If Mojtaba Khamenei exits Iranian maritime territory on a boat to international waters, this market may resolve to \"Yes\".\n\nIf no qualifying confirmation occurs by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": null,
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "a consensus of credible reporting",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": null,
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_placeholder",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 26,
        "caps": [
          "adversarial_ground_truth",
          "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.016,
      "implied_probability": 0.016,
      "volume_24h_usd": 120,
      "volume_total_usd": 32612.652307,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "occurrence",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "iran",
        "khamenei",
        "mojtaba khamenei departure",
        "political"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-JMJQVZKVP3",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-YT6J5GFR23",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x1a024724af1216bca940f7306569b52b48bead8e27d89e6d89adccfc0d19371c",
      "question": "Will Mojtaba Khamenei leave Iran by August 31?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if it is confirmed that Mojtaba Khamenei was outside Iran at any point between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nBoth the presence outside Iran and its confirmation must occur between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. A presence outside Iran occurring prior to market creation will not qualify, regardless of when it is confirmed.\n\nMojtaba Khamenei need not depart Iran during the market window, nor remain outside Iran at the time of confirmation. If he was already outside Iran at",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "August 31: Resolution per the event's stated source and mechanism (subject supplied per market).",
      "close_at": "2026-08-31T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-08-31T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if it is confirmed that Mojtaba Khamenei was outside Iran at any point between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nBoth the presence outside Iran and its confirmation must occur between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. A presence outside Iran occurring prior to market creation will not qualify, regardless of when it is confirmed.\n\nMojtaba Khamenei need not depart Iran during the market window, nor remain outside Iran at the time of confirmation. If he was already outside Iran at market creation, his confirmed presence outside Iran during the window will qualify; likewise, a confirmed presence during the window will qualify even if he has since returned to Iran.\n\nIn cases where Mojtaba Khamenei may have exited Iranian airspace on a plane, he must be confirmed to have exited the plane in a country other than Iran for this market to resolve to \"Yes\". If Mojtaba Khamenei exits Iranian maritime territory on a boat to international waters, this market may resolve to \"Yes\".\n\nIf no qualifying confirmation occurs by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": null,
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "a consensus of credible reporting",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": null,
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_placeholder",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 26,
        "caps": [
          "adversarial_ground_truth",
          "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.068,
      "implied_probability": 0.068,
      "volume_24h_usd": 77,
      "volume_total_usd": 51593.87745499999,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "occurrence",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "iran",
        "khamenei",
        "mojtaba khamenei departure",
        "political"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    }
  ],
  "resolution_log": [],
  "_provenance": {
    "source": "clearmarket.fyi",
    "ref": "CM-EVT-YT6J5GFR23",
    "terms": "Attribution required. clearmarket.fyi"
  }
}