{
  "_notice": {
    "type": "free_key_offer",
    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
  },
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-NKYF4CRJ69",
  "slug": "will-morgan-stanley-ms-q2-investment-banking-revenue-be-above",
  "question": "Morgan Stanley Q2 investment banking revenue, July 14, 2026",
  "category": "financials",
  "event_type": "LADDER",
  "ladder_distribution": {
    "direction": "above",
    "implied_band": [
      2.35,
      null
    ],
    "strikes": [
      {
        "threshold": 1.9,
        "prob": 100
      },
      {
        "threshold": 2,
        "prob": 100
      },
      {
        "threshold": 2.12,
        "prob": 100
      },
      {
        "threshold": 2.25,
        "prob": 100
      },
      {
        "threshold": 2.35,
        "prob": 100
      }
    ]
  },
  "tags": [
    "financials",
    "morgan-stanley",
    "investment-banking",
    "q2-2026",
    "financial-earnings",
    "revenue-threshold"
  ],
  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "These markets track Morgan Stanley's Q2 2026 investment banking revenue against five discrete strike thresholds. Each binary contract resolves YES if reported revenue clears its respective strike, creating an implied probability distribution across the $1.9B-$2.35B range. All five resolve via Polymarket's UMA Optimistic Oracle against Morgan Stanley's official Q2 2026 earnings materials by July 14, 2026. The nested strike structure lets traders infer a market-implied revenue curve without a continuous contract.",
  "venues_covered": [
    "polymarket"
  ],
  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-FPWN2W8YX5",
  "current_primary_mark": {
    "last_price": 1,
    "implied_probability": 1
  },
  "created_at": "2026-07-06T00:30:45.836226+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-07-06T00:30:45.836226+00:00",
  "markets": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-XMMLS87R28",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-NKYF4CRJ69",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0xeaeb7bd31be0ee0dadaffede25e9ecdb9a8e3db3bafb1e3ae82bfc72fcfdb766",
      "question": "Will Morgan Stanley (MS) Q2 investment banking revenue be above $1.9B?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Morgan Stanley's investment banking revenue for the upcoming second fiscal quarter, as reported in its official company earnings materials, is above the listed amount. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nThe company trades under the ticker MS as of the creation of this market.\n\nThe specified metric will be considered as reported in the company's official earnings materials. Subsequent revisions will not be considered.\n\nIf the specified company's official earnings materials for the specified quarter are released, and the specified metric is not inc",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "$1.9B: The named company's official Q2 2026 earnings materials, released by July 14, 2026, determine whether investment banking revenue exceeds the specified threshold.",
      "close_at": "2026-07-14T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-07-14T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "resolved",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Morgan Stanley's investment banking revenue for the upcoming second fiscal quarter, as reported in its official company earnings materials, is above the listed amount. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nThe company trades under the ticker MS as of the creation of this market.\n\nThe specified metric will be considered as reported in the company's official earnings materials. Subsequent revisions will not be considered.\n\nIf the specified company's official earnings materials for the specified quarter are released, and the specified metric is not included, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nIf the specified company does not release quarterly earnings materials for the specified quarter by August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nIf the specified metric is reported as a range rather than a specific number, the midpoint of the range will be used for resolution of this market.\n\nThe resolution source for this market is Morgan Stanley's official company earnings materials, including press releases, investor presentations, and regulatory filings. If the specified metric is not reported in these materials, recordings or transcripts of the company's earnings webcast may also be used.\n\nNote: This market will resolve based on the most numerically precise version of the specified metric reported in the company's official earnings materials. Only the specified metric will be considered; alternate versions that differ in definition or scope from the specified metric will not be considered.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": null,
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "Morgan Stanley's official company earnings materials, including press releases, investor presentations, and regulatory filings",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "recordings or transcripts of the company's earnings webcast",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "Morgan Stanley's official company earnings materials",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 84,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 1,
      "implied_probability": 1,
      "volume_24h_usd": 61.34,
      "volume_total_usd": 5233.065807,
      "settlement_style": "terminal",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 1.9,
      "question_id": "CMX-9724E73F4E",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "investment banking",
        "morgan stanley investment",
        "ms",
        "q2",
        "revenue"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-4DBFXLLB70",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-NKYF4CRJ69",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0xbb5b3fce7f11080b5c5b1d89382558e694a5ce55634bec4106acf3405f7f1abf",
      "question": "Will Morgan Stanley (MS) Q2 investment banking revenue be above $2.0B?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Morgan Stanley's investment banking revenue for the upcoming second fiscal quarter, as reported in its official company earnings materials, is above the listed amount. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nThe company trades under the ticker MS as of the creation of this market.\n\nThe specified metric will be considered as reported in the company's official earnings materials. Subsequent revisions will not be considered.\n\nIf the specified company's official earnings materials for the specified quarter are released, and the specified metric is not inc",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "$2.0B: The named company's official Q2 2026 earnings materials, released by July 14, 2026, determine whether investment banking revenue exceeds the specified threshold.",
      "close_at": "2026-07-14T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-07-14T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "resolved",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Morgan Stanley's investment banking revenue for the upcoming second fiscal quarter, as reported in its official company earnings materials, is above the listed amount. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nThe company trades under the ticker MS as of the creation of this market.\n\nThe specified metric will be considered as reported in the company's official earnings materials. Subsequent revisions will not be considered.\n\nIf the specified company's official earnings materials for the specified quarter are released, and the specified metric is not included, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nIf the specified company does not release quarterly earnings materials for the specified quarter by August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nIf the specified metric is reported as a range rather than a specific number, the midpoint of the range will be used for resolution of this market.\n\nThe resolution source for this market is Morgan Stanley's official company earnings materials, including press releases, investor presentations, and regulatory filings. If the specified metric is not reported in these materials, recordings or transcripts of the company's earnings webcast may also be used.\n\nNote: This market will resolve based on the most numerically precise version of the specified metric reported in the company's official earnings materials. Only the specified metric will be considered; alternate versions that differ in definition or scope from the specified metric will not be considered.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": null,
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "Morgan Stanley's official company earnings materials, including press releases, investor presentations, and regulatory filings",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "recordings or transcripts of the company's earnings webcast",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "Morgan Stanley's official company earnings materials",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 84,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 1,
      "implied_probability": 1,
      "volume_24h_usd": null,
      "volume_total_usd": 6701.6072189999995,
      "settlement_style": "terminal",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 2,
      "question_id": "CMX-7FFE66693D",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "investment banking",
        "morgan stanley investment",
        "ms",
        "q2",
        "revenue"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-ZCN0J5YRT9",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-NKYF4CRJ69",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x44014b6846087c39e1f663f08b75a8e693adbfa7b76f259027c898b884a9c9cc",
      "question": "Will Morgan Stanley (MS) Q2 investment banking revenue be above $2.25B?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Morgan Stanley's investment banking revenue for the upcoming second fiscal quarter, as reported in its official company earnings materials, is above the listed amount. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nThe company trades under the ticker MS as of the creation of this market.\n\nThe specified metric will be considered as reported in the company's official earnings materials. Subsequent revisions will not be considered.\n\nIf the specified company's official earnings materials for the specified quarter are released, and the specified metric is not inc",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "$2.25B: The named company's official Q2 2026 earnings materials, released by July 14, 2026, determine whether investment banking revenue exceeds the specified threshold.",
      "close_at": "2026-07-14T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-07-14T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "resolved",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Morgan Stanley's investment banking revenue for the upcoming second fiscal quarter, as reported in its official company earnings materials, is above the listed amount. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nThe company trades under the ticker MS as of the creation of this market.\n\nThe specified metric will be considered as reported in the company's official earnings materials. Subsequent revisions will not be considered.\n\nIf the specified company's official earnings materials for the specified quarter are released, and the specified metric is not included, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nIf the specified company does not release quarterly earnings materials for the specified quarter by August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nIf the specified metric is reported as a range rather than a specific number, the midpoint of the range will be used for resolution of this market.\n\nThe resolution source for this market is Morgan Stanley's official company earnings materials, including press releases, investor presentations, and regulatory filings. If the specified metric is not reported in these materials, recordings or transcripts of the company's earnings webcast may also be used.\n\nNote: This market will resolve based on the most numerically precise version of the specified metric reported in the company's official earnings materials. Only the specified metric will be considered; alternate versions that differ in definition or scope from the specified metric will not be considered.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": null,
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "Morgan Stanley's official company earnings materials, including press releases, investor presentations, and regulatory filings",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "recordings or transcripts of the company's earnings webcast",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "Morgan Stanley's official company earnings materials",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 84,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 1,
      "implied_probability": 1,
      "volume_24h_usd": 361.99,
      "volume_total_usd": 3264.452194,
      "settlement_style": "terminal",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 2.25,
      "question_id": "CMX-FC03249C53",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "investment banking",
        "morgan stanley investment",
        "ms",
        "q2",
        "revenue"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-FPWN2W8YX5",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-NKYF4CRJ69",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x2ac96ec2a64fb8e02983dc5aa56e7dd5dbce00b8bebb700396a594800121712a",
      "question": "Will Morgan Stanley (MS) Q2 investment banking revenue be above $2.35B?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Morgan Stanley's investment banking revenue for the upcoming second fiscal quarter, as reported in its official company earnings materials, is above the listed amount. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nThe company trades under the ticker MS as of the creation of this market.\n\nThe specified metric will be considered as reported in the company's official earnings materials. Subsequent revisions will not be considered.\n\nIf the specified company's official earnings materials for the specified quarter are released, and the specified metric is not inc",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "$2.35B: The named company's official Q2 2026 earnings materials, released by July 14, 2026, determine whether investment banking revenue exceeds the specified threshold.",
      "close_at": "2026-07-14T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-07-14T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "resolved",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Morgan Stanley's investment banking revenue for the upcoming second fiscal quarter, as reported in its official company earnings materials, is above the listed amount. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nThe company trades under the ticker MS as of the creation of this market.\n\nThe specified metric will be considered as reported in the company's official earnings materials. Subsequent revisions will not be considered.\n\nIf the specified company's official earnings materials for the specified quarter are released, and the specified metric is not included, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nIf the specified company does not release quarterly earnings materials for the specified quarter by August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nIf the specified metric is reported as a range rather than a specific number, the midpoint of the range will be used for resolution of this market.\n\nThe resolution source for this market is Morgan Stanley's official company earnings materials, including press releases, investor presentations, and regulatory filings. If the specified metric is not reported in these materials, recordings or transcripts of the company's earnings webcast may also be used.\n\nNote: This market will resolve based on the most numerically precise version of the specified metric reported in the company's official earnings materials. Only the specified metric will be considered; alternate versions that differ in definition or scope from the specified metric will not be considered.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": null,
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "Morgan Stanley's official company earnings materials, including press releases, investor presentations, and regulatory filings",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "recordings or transcripts of the company's earnings webcast",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "Morgan Stanley's official company earnings materials",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 84,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 1,
      "implied_probability": 1,
      "volume_24h_usd": 156.13,
      "volume_total_usd": 4205.920145,
      "settlement_style": "terminal",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 2.35,
      "question_id": "CMX-3BEE5B0A15",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "investment banking",
        "morgan stanley investment",
        "ms",
        "q2",
        "revenue"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-8SNX2LWL38",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-NKYF4CRJ69",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x5afb77a61b6bf551aec4811d0a949bafa84912c98b6bab636c122cffae804eda",
      "question": "Will Morgan Stanley (MS) Q2 investment banking revenue be above $2.125B?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Morgan Stanley's investment banking revenue for the upcoming second fiscal quarter, as reported in its official company earnings materials, is above the listed amount. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nThe company trades under the ticker MS as of the creation of this market.\n\nThe specified metric will be considered as reported in the company's official earnings materials. Subsequent revisions will not be considered.\n\nIf the specified company's official earnings materials for the specified quarter are released, and the specified metric is not inc",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "$2.125B: The named company's official Q2 2026 earnings materials, released by July 14, 2026, determine whether investment banking revenue exceeds the specified threshold.",
      "close_at": "2026-07-14T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-07-14T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "resolved",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Morgan Stanley's investment banking revenue for the upcoming second fiscal quarter, as reported in its official company earnings materials, is above the listed amount. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nThe company trades under the ticker MS as of the creation of this market.\n\nThe specified metric will be considered as reported in the company's official earnings materials. Subsequent revisions will not be considered.\n\nIf the specified company's official earnings materials for the specified quarter are released, and the specified metric is not included, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nIf the specified company does not release quarterly earnings materials for the specified quarter by August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nIf the specified metric is reported as a range rather than a specific number, the midpoint of the range will be used for resolution of this market.\n\nThe resolution source for this market is Morgan Stanley's official company earnings materials, including press releases, investor presentations, and regulatory filings. If the specified metric is not reported in these materials, recordings or transcripts of the company's earnings webcast may also be used.\n\nNote: This market will resolve based on the most numerically precise version of the specified metric reported in the company's official earnings materials. Only the specified metric will be considered; alternate versions that differ in definition or scope from the specified metric will not be considered.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "platform_named",
        "source_citation": null,
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "Morgan Stanley's official company earnings materials, including press releases, investor presentations, and regulatory filings",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "recordings or transcripts of the company's earnings webcast",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": "Morgan Stanley's official company earnings materials",
        "source_mechanism": "single_authority",
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "named",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "named",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "A",
        "score": 84,
        "caps": [],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 1,
      "implied_probability": 1,
      "volume_24h_usd": 0.43,
      "volume_total_usd": 5977.0185,
      "settlement_style": "terminal",
      "direction": "above",
      "threshold": 2.12,
      "question_id": "CMX-E979724369",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "investment banking",
        "morgan stanley investment",
        "ms",
        "q2",
        "revenue"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    }
  ],
  "resolution_log": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-4DBFXLLB70",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "event_type": "resolved",
      "outcome": "YES",
      "resolved_at": "2026-07-15T13:33:13Z",
      "deadline_at": null,
      "occurred_basis": "venue_settlement",
      "final_price": 1,
      "recorded_at": "2026-07-24",
      "source": "platform_api",
      "source_ref": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-XMMLS87R28",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "event_type": "resolved",
      "outcome": "YES",
      "resolved_at": "2026-07-15T13:28:56Z",
      "deadline_at": null,
      "occurred_basis": "venue_settlement",
      "final_price": 1,
      "recorded_at": "2026-07-24",
      "source": "platform_api",
      "source_ref": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-ZCN0J5YRT9",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "event_type": "resolved",
      "outcome": "YES",
      "resolved_at": "2026-07-15T13:28:56Z",
      "deadline_at": null,
      "occurred_basis": "venue_settlement",
      "final_price": 1,
      "recorded_at": "2026-07-24",
      "source": "platform_api",
      "source_ref": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-FPWN2W8YX5",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "event_type": "resolved",
      "outcome": "YES",
      "resolved_at": "2026-07-15T13:28:56Z",
      "deadline_at": null,
      "occurred_basis": "venue_settlement",
      "final_price": 1,
      "recorded_at": "2026-07-24",
      "source": "platform_api",
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    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-8SNX2LWL38",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "event_type": "resolved",
      "outcome": "YES",
      "resolved_at": "2026-07-15T13:28:56Z",
      "deadline_at": null,
      "occurred_basis": "venue_settlement",
      "final_price": 1,
      "recorded_at": "2026-07-24",
      "source": "platform_api",
      "source_ref": null
    }
  ],
  "_provenance": {
    "source": "clearmarket.fyi",
    "ref": "CM-EVT-NKYF4CRJ69",
    "terms": "Attribution required. clearmarket.fyi"
  }
}