{
  "_notice": {
    "type": "free_key_offer",
    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
  },
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-BBFSXT4B60",
  "slug": "will-nato-countries-clash-with-each-other-before-2027",
  "question": "Will NATO countries clash with each other before 2027?",
  "category": "geopolitics",
  "event_type": "BINARY",
  "ladder_distribution": null,
  "tags": [
    "nato-conflict",
    "geopolitics",
    "trump",
    "military-clash",
    "2026"
  ],
  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "This market tracks whether any two NATO member states engage in a military encounter involving use of force before January 1, 2027. Only one platform structures this event, as a binary outcome resolved by Polymarket's UMA Optimistic Oracle. Resolution hinges on the oracle's determination of what constitutes a qualifying military clash between alliance members.",
  "venues_covered": [
    "polymarket"
  ],
  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-5K6THSG7M2",
  "current_primary_mark": {
    "last_price": 0.039,
    "implied_probability": 0.039
  },
  "created_at": "2026-07-06T00:30:45.836226+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-07-06T00:30:45.836226+00:00",
  "markets": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-5K6THSG7M2",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-BBFSXT4B60",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x4ec6ada6365a8cfc2a36493903e7af4311513e90fa9cbf4defefab1d912a9971",
      "question": "Will NATO countries clash with each other before 2027?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of at least two NATO member states between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nA \"military encounter\" is defined as any incident involving the use of force, such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between the military forces of at least two NATO member states. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "UMA Optimistic Oracle determines whether a military encounter involving use of force occurred between at least two NATO member states between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.",
      "close_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of at least two NATO member states between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nA \"military encounter\" is defined as any incident involving the use of force, such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between the military forces of at least two NATO member states. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a \"Yes\" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a \"Yes\" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.\n\nNote: For the purposes of this market, coast guard services or equivalent forces will be considered part of a country’s military only if they are officially designated as military forces under that country’s law or command structure; purely civilian or law-enforcement maritime agencies will not be considered military forces.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": null,
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "a consensus of credible reporting",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": null,
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_placeholder",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 22,
        "caps": [
          "discretionary_trigger_no_source",
          "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 6
      },
      "last_price": 0.039,
      "implied_probability": 0.039,
      "volume_24h_usd": 2.08,
      "volume_total_usd": 57319.18902499995,
      "settlement_style": "occurrence",
      "direction": "occurrence",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "conflict",
        "geopolitics",
        "nato",
        "nato intra alliance"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    }
  ],
  "resolution_log": [],
  "_provenance": {
    "source": "clearmarket.fyi",
    "ref": "CM-EVT-BBFSXT4B60",
    "terms": "Attribution required. clearmarket.fyi"
  }
}