{
  "_notice": {
    "type": "free_key_offer",
    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
  },
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-JQRFQ9KSY5",
  "slug": "will-noble-launch-a-token-by",
  "question": "Will Noble launch a token by 2026?",
  "category": "crypto",
  "event_type": "BINARY",
  "ladder_distribution": null,
  "tags": [
    "crypto",
    "token-launch",
    "noble-protocol",
    "2026",
    "cryptocurrency-project",
    "launch-timeline"
  ],
  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "These markets track whether Noble, a Cosmos-based asset issuance chain, will launch a native token by a given deadline. Seven binary contracts span quarterly deadlines from June 30, 2026 through December 31, 2027, forming an implicit term structure of launch probability. Earlier contracts price near-term execution risk; later contracts price cumulative probability across a longer horizon. Resolution for all contracts follows Polymarket's UMA Optimistic Oracle protocol.",
  "venues_covered": [
    "polymarket"
  ],
  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-TJZPYJHC70",
  "current_primary_mark": {
    "last_price": 0.001,
    "implied_probability": 0.001
  },
  "created_at": "2026-07-23T21:11:14.426158+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-07-23T21:11:14.426158+00:00",
  "markets": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-TJZPYJHC70",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-JQRFQ9KSY5",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x57bab9793e7e32f4827c79a6ec8f662f472311ad7a1ad56f51a521c219b8ee68",
      "question": "Will Noble launch a token by June 30, 2026?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Noble officially launches a token by 11:59 PM ET on the date specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nOnly an official token launched by Noble will qualify. Stablecoins, memecoins, LSTs and synthetic tokens will not count.\n\nThe token must be actively and publicly tradable. Announcements alone do not qualify.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be information from Noble (https://x.com/noble_xyz), however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "June 30, 2026: Resolution per the event's stated source and mechanism (subject supplied per market).",
      "close_at": "2026-07-01T03:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-07-01T10:40:35Z",
      "status": "closed",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Noble officially launches a token by 11:59 PM ET on the date specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nOnly an official token launched by Noble will qualify. Stablecoins, memecoins, LSTs and synthetic tokens will not count.\n\nThe token must be actively and publicly tradable. Announcements alone do not qualify.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be information from Noble (https://x.com/noble_xyz), however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": "https://x.com/noble_xyz",
        "sources": [
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            "url": "https://x.com/noble_xyz",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
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            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_placeholder",
        "source_hedge_text": null
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      "rcg": {
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        "score": 52,
        "caps": [
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        "applied_factors": 6
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      "last_price": 0.001,
      "implied_probability": 0.001,
      "volume_24h_usd": null,
      "volume_total_usd": 16170.612084000013,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "occurrence",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": "CMX-07CB35A7C7",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "crypto",
        "noble",
        "noble token launch",
        "token"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-XW343NW7C0",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-JQRFQ9KSY5",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x13b2a7a04ce7b130affe1f06745cbbf6de5fa0222455a93e014d29469a36416a",
      "question": "Will Noble launch a token by September 30, 2026?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Noble officially launches a token by 11:59 PM ET on the date specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nOnly an official token launched by Noble will qualify. Stablecoins, memecoins, LSTs and synthetic tokens will not count.\n\nThe token must be actively and publicly tradable. Announcements alone do not qualify.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be information from Noble (https://x.com/noble_xyz), however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "September 30, 2026: Resolution per the event's stated source and mechanism (subject supplied per market).",
      "close_at": "2026-10-01T03:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-10-01T03:59:00Z",
      "status": "closed",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Noble officially launches a token by 11:59 PM ET on the date specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nOnly an official token launched by Noble will qualify. Stablecoins, memecoins, LSTs and synthetic tokens will not count.\n\nThe token must be actively and publicly tradable. Announcements alone do not qualify.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be information from Noble (https://x.com/noble_xyz), however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": "https://x.com/noble_xyz",
        "sources": [
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            "url": "https://x.com/noble_xyz",
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            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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        "applied_factors": 6
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      "volume_24h_usd": null,
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      "settlement_style": "touch",
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      "question_id": "CMX-160E15A3EC",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
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        "noble",
        "noble token launch",
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      "eligibility_screens": null
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    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-L9C07Q2NF2",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-JQRFQ9KSY5",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x4e78cab95df3f93b0b2ada5a1d23759dbe6b4dc1d1ac197054aa2dc1160c0d80",
      "question": "Will Noble launch a token by December 31, 2026?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Noble officially launches a token by 11:59 PM ET on the date specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nOnly an official token launched by Noble will qualify. Stablecoins, memecoins, LSTs and synthetic tokens will not count.\n\nThe token must be actively and publicly tradable. Announcements alone do not qualify.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be information from Noble (https://x.com/noble_xyz), however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "December 31, 2026: Resolution per the event's stated source and mechanism (subject supplied per market).",
      "close_at": "2027-01-01T04:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-01-01T04:59:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Noble officially launches a token by 11:59 PM ET on the date specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nOnly an official token launched by Noble will qualify. Stablecoins, memecoins, LSTs and synthetic tokens will not count.\n\nThe token must be actively and publicly tradable. Announcements alone do not qualify.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be information from Noble (https://x.com/noble_xyz), however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": "https://x.com/noble_xyz",
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "x.com",
            "url": "https://x.com/noble_xyz",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "https://x.com/noble_xyz",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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        "source_mechanism": null,
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        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_placeholder",
        "source_hedge_text": null
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      "rcg": {
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        "score": 52,
        "caps": [
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        "applied_factors": 6
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      "last_price": 0.11,
      "implied_probability": 0.11,
      "volume_24h_usd": null,
      "volume_total_usd": 9572.862885,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "occurrence",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": "CMX-6ADEB2242F",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
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        "noble",
        "noble token launch",
        "token"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-4ZMCZDVG06",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-JQRFQ9KSY5",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0xfb12a88035e363f6b6b9a0d3ea30ff838c9bf385f9b0d4891b5ecc9d8af89b0f",
      "question": "Will Noble launch a token by March 31, 2027?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Noble officially launches a token by 11:59 PM ET on the date specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nOnly an official token launched by Noble will qualify. Stablecoins, memecoins, LSTs and synthetic tokens will not count.\n\nThe token must be actively and publicly tradable. Announcements alone do not qualify.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be information from Noble (https://x.com/noble_xyz), however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "March 31, 2027: Resolution per the event's stated source and mechanism (subject supplied per market).",
      "close_at": "2027-04-01T03:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-04-01T03:59:00Z",
      "status": "closed",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Noble officially launches a token by 11:59 PM ET on the date specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nOnly an official token launched by Noble will qualify. Stablecoins, memecoins, LSTs and synthetic tokens will not count.\n\nThe token must be actively and publicly tradable. Announcements alone do not qualify.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be information from Noble (https://x.com/noble_xyz), however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": "https://x.com/noble_xyz",
        "sources": [
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            "url": "https://x.com/noble_xyz",
            "provenance": "platform_api"
          },
          {
            "name": "https://x.com/noble_xyz",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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        "source_of_record": null,
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        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_placeholder",
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      "rcg": {
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        "score": 52,
        "caps": [
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        "applied_factors": 6
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      "last_price": null,
      "implied_probability": null,
      "volume_24h_usd": null,
      "volume_total_usd": null,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "occurrence",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": "CMX-13EDF9D05B",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
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        "noble",
        "noble token launch",
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      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-QFGHDZT1R5",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-JQRFQ9KSY5",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0xf5d8c0e0870604e05fb1664bbd4146c2548fe822a71e11facf0b56f9dcf3a23e",
      "question": "Will Noble launch a token by June 30, 2027?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Noble officially launches a token by 11:59 PM ET on the date specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nOnly an official token launched by Noble will qualify. Stablecoins, memecoins, LSTs and synthetic tokens will not count.\n\nThe token must be actively and publicly tradable. Announcements alone do not qualify.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be information from Noble (https://x.com/noble_xyz), however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "June 30, 2027: Resolution per the event's stated source and mechanism (subject supplied per market).",
      "close_at": "2027-07-01T03:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-07-01T03:59:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Noble officially launches a token by 11:59 PM ET on the date specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nOnly an official token launched by Noble will qualify. Stablecoins, memecoins, LSTs and synthetic tokens will not count.\n\nThe token must be actively and publicly tradable. Announcements alone do not qualify.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be information from Noble (https://x.com/noble_xyz), however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
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        "applied_factors": 6
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      "last_price": 0.3,
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      "settlement_style": "touch",
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      "question_id": "CMX-30AFD1C1A2",
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      "tags": [
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      "eligibility_screens": null
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    {
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      "event_id": "CM-EVT-JQRFQ9KSY5",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x83fc9f216196094e7cd005c964adb5ee814449ca9d4e5c7e7b12bdbec098e305",
      "question": "Will Noble launch a token by September 30, 2027?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Noble officially launches a token by 11:59 PM ET on the date specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nOnly an official token launched by Noble will qualify. Stablecoins, memecoins, LSTs and synthetic tokens will not count.\n\nThe token must be actively and publicly tradable. Announcements alone do not qualify.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be information from Noble (https://x.com/noble_xyz), however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "September 30, 2027: Resolution per the event's stated source and mechanism (subject supplied per market).",
      "close_at": "2027-10-01T03:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2027-10-01T03:59:00Z",
      "status": "closed",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Noble officially launches a token by 11:59 PM ET on the date specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nOnly an official token launched by Noble will qualify. Stablecoins, memecoins, LSTs and synthetic tokens will not count.\n\nThe token must be actively and publicly tradable. Announcements alone do not qualify.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be information from Noble (https://x.com/noble_xyz), however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
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        "source_citation": "https://x.com/noble_xyz",
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      "rcg": {
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        "applied_factors": 6
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      "last_price": null,
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      "volume_24h_usd": null,
      "volume_total_usd": null,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "occurrence",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": "CMX-9ABC933FEA",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
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        "noble",
        "noble token launch",
        "token"
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      "eligibility_screens": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-S3QTS282F3",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-JQRFQ9KSY5",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x223e9bebb8969e0aa313ab00148f25347db81e8f5f42a5fcc9e049864f76e0e9",
      "question": "Will Noble launch a token by December 31, 2027?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Noble officially launches a token by 11:59 PM ET on the date specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nOnly an official token launched by Noble will qualify. Stablecoins, memecoins, LSTs and synthetic tokens will not count.\n\nThe token must be actively and publicly tradable. Announcements alone do not qualify.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be information from Noble (https://x.com/noble_xyz), however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "December 31, 2027: Resolution per the event's stated source and mechanism (subject supplied per market).",
      "close_at": "2028-01-01T04:59:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2028-01-01T04:59:00Z",
      "status": "closed",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Noble officially launches a token by 11:59 PM ET on the date specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nOnly an official token launched by Noble will qualify. Stablecoins, memecoins, LSTs and synthetic tokens will not count.\n\nThe token must be actively and publicly tradable. Announcements alone do not qualify.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be information from Noble (https://x.com/noble_xyz), however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
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            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
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        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
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      "rcg": {
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        "applied_factors": 6
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      "volume_total_usd": null,
      "settlement_style": "touch",
      "direction": "occurrence",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": "CMX-5C43727689",
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "crypto",
        "noble",
        "noble token launch",
        "token"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    }
  ],
  "resolution_log": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-S3QTS282F3",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "event_type": "status_change",
      "outcome": "closed",
      "resolved_at": null,
      "deadline_at": "2028-01-01T04:59:00Z",
      "occurred_basis": "deadline",
      "final_price": null,
      "recorded_at": "2026-07-06",
      "source": "platform_api",
      "source_ref": null
    },
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-JNLK6HGGM9",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "event_type": "status_change",
      "outcome": "closed",
      "resolved_at": null,
      "deadline_at": "2027-10-01T03:59:00Z",
      "occurred_basis": "deadline",
      "final_price": null,
      "recorded_at": "2026-07-06",
      "source": "platform_api",
      "source_ref": null
    },
    {
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