{
  "_notice": {
    "type": "free_key_offer",
    "message": "Free and anonymous access is staying. If this endpoint is in your pipeline, a free key adds advance notice before any schema change or deprecation. POST /v1/keys {\"email\": \"you@firm.com\"} — nothing else required. Something broken or missing? hello@clearmarket.fyi reaches a human.",
    "docs": "https://clearmarket.fyi/for-data/",
    "policy": "This field is additive and its shape will not change."
  },
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-GGMF8V7JH2",
  "slug": "will-north-korea-invade-south-korea-before-2027",
  "question": "Will North Korea invade South Korea before 2027?",
  "category": "geopolitics",
  "event_type": "BINARY",
  "ladder_distribution": null,
  "tags": [
    "geopolitics",
    "military-conflict",
    "korea",
    "2026",
    "state-actors",
    "armed-invasion"
  ],
  "catalyst_types": [],
  "catalyst_dates": [],
  "editorial_notes": "This market prices the binary probability of a North Korean military invasion of South Korea before end-2026. Resolution requires official confirmation from South Korea, North Korea, the United Nations, or a permanent UN Security Council member. Polymarket's UMA Optimistic Oracle governs settlement. No paired Kalshi market exists for cross-platform structural comparison.",
  "venues_covered": [
    "polymarket"
  ],
  "primary_market_id": "CM-MKT-445L6VN8N1",
  "current_primary_mark": {
    "last_price": 0.04,
    "implied_probability": 0.04
  },
  "created_at": "2026-07-06T00:30:45.836226+00:00",
  "updated_at": "2026-07-06T00:30:45.836226+00:00",
  "markets": [
    {
      "market_id": "CM-MKT-445L6VN8N1",
      "event_id": "CM-EVT-GGMF8V7JH2",
      "platform": "polymarket",
      "platform_market_id": "0x84dc47b1dd9cd99a9217b92a95690729334b647650bb6bf676bb31c3db0d7f79",
      "question": "Will North Korea invade South Korea before 2027?",
      "description": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if North Korea commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the South Korea by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be will be official confirmation by South Korea, North Korea, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.",
      "contract_type": "binary",
      "settlement_currency": "USDC",
      "underlying_reference": "Official confirmation by South Korea, North Korea, the United Nations, or any permanent UN Security Council member of a North Korean military offensive into South Korea by December 31, 2026, or consensus of credible reporting thereof.",
      "close_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "resolve_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "status": "open",
      "resolution": {
        "rules_raw": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if North Korea commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the South Korea by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be will be official confirmation by South Korea, North Korea, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.",
        "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
        "proposer": "managed_whitelist",
        "source": null,
        "source_status": "no_committed_source",
        "source_citation": null,
        "sources": [
          {
            "name": "South Korea",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "North Korea",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "the United Nations",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          },
          {
            "name": "any permanent member of the UN Security Council",
            "url": null,
            "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
          }
        ],
        "source_of_record": null,
        "source_mechanism": null,
        "source_type": null,
        "source_quality": null,
        "source_commitment": "uncommitted",
        "source_commitment_subtype": "uncommitted_placeholder",
        "source_hedge_text": null
      },
      "rcg": {
        "grade": "C",
        "score": 30,
        "caps": [
          "multi_source_no_conflict_rule",
          "adversarial_ground_truth",
          "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
        ],
        "applied_factors": 7
      },
      "last_price": 0.04,
      "implied_probability": 0.04,
      "volume_24h_usd": 41.201465999999996,
      "volume_total_usd": 423322.84068800014,
      "settlement_style": "occurrence",
      "direction": "occurrence",
      "threshold": null,
      "question_id": null,
      "also_on": null,
      "tags": [
        "conflict",
        "geopolitics",
        "korea",
        "north korea military"
      ],
      "eligibility_screens": null
    }
  ],
  "resolution_log": [],
  "_provenance": {
    "source": "clearmarket.fyi",
    "ref": "CM-EVT-GGMF8V7JH2",
    "terms": "Attribution required. clearmarket.fyi"
  }
}